George H.W. Bush wins in 1992?

[Frodo]

Does anyone know why George H. W. Bush picked Dan Quayle as his running-mate instead of Jack Kemp who was also considered on the Veep list in 1988? 

[Frodo]

I don't see how President George Bush could have won re-election in 1992 considering all the headwinds he faced.  How does one overcome a tepid 'jobless recovery' and his breaking of his 'read my lips: no new taxes' pledge, and still win re-election, especially after 12 years of unbroken Republican control of the White House?  I can't think of a plausible way.  You cannot control the economic cycle, and Bush could not have been elected in 1988 had he not made that infamous pledge, considering how lackluster conservative support was for him until he did.  And he had little choice but to break the pledge if he didn't want to cut entitlement programs during congressional negotiations in 1990.  And it didn't help matters that he had a prior reputation as a moderate within the Republican Party who called Ronald Reagan's regulation-, spending-, and tax- cutting economic philosophy 'voodoo economics' during the 1980 GOP primaries.  As a direct result, conservatives would not give him as much leeway to tactically raise taxes the way they had done with President Reagan.

George Bush was damned if he did, and damned if he didn't.  I feel sorry for him, in a way.

[Frodo]

The only way Republicans could have held on to the White House in 1992 was if several factors fell into place:

1. President George Bush decides not to run for re-election -after all he was having health issues, and was leaning towards retirement anyway until he was talked out of it.

2. Congressman Jack Kemp (I choose him as the GOP savior because he seems the best, most logical candidate to carry on Reagan's legacy for another four years) ultimately decided not to serve in the Bush cabinet in 1988/89, and stays in the House, maintaining his distance and independence from whatever happened in the administration.

3. Vice-President Dan Quayle either decides not to run or is primaried by Jack Kemp in the 1992 primaries.  

Then Republicans would have had more than a fighting chance on keeping the White House until January 1997.