Who wins Ohio?

[Torie]

Which districts is Santorum not eligible for delegates in?


I remember CD-09 is one. Ironically it is one that he would probably do well in

Santorum isn't running that well with Catholic voters and urban voters. Where Rick will romp is in the Butternut zone, and perhaps some small counties where the Mennonites hang out (e.g., Holmes and De Wert). TJ can better identify the social conservative zone, more heavily populated by folks for whom economics is less of a driving issue.

[Torie]

Which districts is Santorum not eligible for delegates in?


I remember CD-09 is one. Ironically it is one that he would probably do well in

6, 9, and 13.

Oh my. OH-06 is Butternut central along the Ohio River (OH-02 has a bit of Butternut, but it is swamped by the Cincy burbs).

[Torie]

What is this 'butternut zone' you speak of, Steve? I've followed politics here pretty closely for 20 years now and never heard the term before.

Well I admit butternut is a term more in common currency with Civil War buffs (do you have any interest in the Civil War Badger?  ), but Barone used it in his Almanac, so it has percolated into the political realm, and I like the term. Hey do you know why that region of Ohio has farms with irregular boundaries, while most of the rest of Ohio has these square and rectangular jobs?  Actually the two "phenoms" are somewhat related.

[Torie]

My thoughts are that Romney will win districts 1,3,11,12, and 14 pretty handily, basically urban Cincinnati, Columbus, the east side of Cleveland, and LaTourette-moderate-hero-Republican-ville in Lake/Geauga/far Eastern Cuyahoga counties. He's also probably favored in 15.

Santorum will win 4 and 5 handily and probably be somewhat favored in 2, 7, 8, and 10 as well.

6 should be a lopsided Santorum district but you guys all know what happened there.

9 and 13 really represent the types of areas Santorum will need to run very well in if he plans on getting elected. Both are blue-collar traditionally Democratic areas with large Catholic populations and some degree of a history of ticket splitting. I expect Romney to do pretty badly in both in a general election, though he might do better in the primary since Republican primary voters probably skew much more educated and wealthy than the general electorate.

If I had to guess, Rick has yet to win the Catholic vote anywhere so far. And yes, he needs to, to get back in the game in a serious way.