NY-Zogby: Gov. Cuomo cruising to re-election

[Tender Branson]

If the Democratic primary for New York state governor were held today and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo and Cynthia Nixon, for whom would you vote?

63-22 Cuomo/Nixon

If the general election for New York state governor were held today and the candidates were Democrat Andrew Cuomo and Republican Marc Molinaro, for whom would you vote?

52-32 Cuomo/Molinaro

https://zogbyanalytics.com/news/858-the-zogby-poll-cuomo-cruising-in-primary-and-general-election-miner-and-nixon-on-the-nov-ballot-can-prevent-cuomo-from-winning-a-majority-of-voters-nixon-and-miner-can-hurt-cuomo-s-2020-chances-biden-and-bernie-most-popular-in-new-york-state

The poll also includes other less important GE scenarios, in which Nixon runs as an Independent.

[ON Progressive]

These numbers aren't unreasonable, even if it's Zogby.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wanted Nixon to win

[South Dakota Democrat]

I wanted Nixon to win

[Tintrlvr]

Nixon never had a chance, at least not without Miner in the primary also to siphon off Upstate votes from Cuomo. Unlike Teachout, who had a Hudson Valley/Upstate base, Nixon has no presence or appeal Upstate, which means she'll do worse than Teachout overall (but probably better in NYC). Miner's decision to run as an independent in the GE instead meant Cuomo would cruise through the primary. We'll see if Miner can pick up momentum in the GE; I think she could ultimately do very well Upstate in the GE, though not well enough to win statewide considering she will be third in NYC and its suburbs - maybe enough for second overall, though.

[TheSaint250]

Other matchups (numbers in the parentheses are the poll numbers in the same hypothetical without "Not Sure"):

Cuomo: 49% (54%)
Molinaro: 27% (32%)
Miner: 11% (14%)
Not Sure: 12%

Cuomo: 50% (54%)
Molinaro: 27% (30%)
Miner: 10% (12%)
Hawkins: 4% (5%)
Not Sure: 9%

Cuomo: 44% (46%)
Molinaro: 26% (28%)
Nixon: 14% (15%)
Miner: 6% (7%)
Hawkins: 3% (4%)
Not Sure: 7%


Interesting points:

-Cuomo is only denied a majority of the vote when Nixon is thrown into the mix
-Miner is getting more than 5% in every possible scenario
-Hawkins is able to reach 5% without Nixon running a third-party campaign
-Molinaro is not able to come close to breaking 35%

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Go Cuomo!

[Fuzzy Bear]

Cuomo is vulnerable, but no one seems to see it.

[libertpaulian]

Cuomo is vulnerable, but no one seems to see it.

The problem is the GOP bench in NY sucks, and those in the bench who ARE good aren't running this year due to the blue wave that's about to sweep the state.

I could see a Stefanik vs. Cuomo vs. Nixon race if we were in a Clinton or Biden midterm, though.

[NewYorkExpress]

I guess I'll be changing my logo to R-NY in a couple of days (and I'd almost forgotten about that bet).

[Politician]

Cuomo is vulnerable, but no one seems to see it.

Lol, he's going to win by at least 20.

[Sir Mohamed]

These numbers aren't unreasonable, even if it's Zogby.

I agree. But I expect Cuomo to outperform his 54% general election vote share of 2014.