A Democratic lock on the White House?

[Padfoot]

Its very difficult to project future presidential trends but very easy to observe them once they've already happened.  Many people try to compare Obama to previous presidents in an effort to back up their own projections for the future but its nearly impossible to make any sound projections.  Although each party has enjoyed periods of White House dominance I think that we tend to undervalue the unique sets of people and events leading up to each individual election in an effort to manufacture easy to understand patterns.  I think it has more to do with finding the right candidate for the right moment in time and less to do with any perceived eras of dominance.

[Padfoot]

Serious articles were written in the 1980s claiming that there was a Republican 'lock' on the White House. Such claims were nonsense then and are nonsense now.

Well, from 1968 to 1992 there was a kind of republican lock. Of course it was more contextual than structural.

Exactly. The Democrats could have won in 1968 with a more charismatic candidate (and no Vietnam War). And if Carter didn't screw up so badly or was never elected in the first place, I seriously doubt the GOP would have won all 3 Presidential elections held in the 1980s.

Which goes back to was I was saying about how each election has more to do with the individual candidates and preceding events than any sort of perceived partisan lock on the Oval Office.