Eden Monaro by-election 4th of July

[AustralianSwingVoter]

30% counted and the size of the projected ALP win down to just under 2 points. It would be a pretty rough blow to actually lose this, and frankly that it's so close can't make Labor feel very good.

Current ABC projections are about a 1% swing towards them, so I don't see why they wouldn't be feeling good. The current numbers aren't that close, especially given the seat in question.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

And at the end of the night all the pre-polls have now come in along with preliminary 2pp for about half of the postals (51-49 to Libs). Labor has a raw 2pp lead of 2k votes, and to make that up the Liberals would need to win about 57% of remaining votes, which is basically impossible.
So at this point we can definitely call the by-election for Kristy McBain, though the current margin of 51.2-48.8 should decline a little bit on the final outstanding votes.