Canadian Election 2019

[lilTommy]

OK so this New Brunswick issue is just messy:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/ndp-greens-defectors-non-defectors-1.5271235

- Claim was that 14 former NDP prov.candidates would defect to the Greens, who they claim had a better shot a winning (arguable here).
- NOW only 7 are actually going to the Greens AND the primary reason is Jagmeet's race and religion, the defectors claiming that it will be a problem for them...to what, be decent human beings? and be able to defend a non-white, non-christian?
- at least 5 who were named all say they were surprised to see their names on that list and all continue to support the NDP

NDP - well it can't look anything but "not good" to have people leave, but with the revelations of lies (or at best mistakes or misrepresentation) has generated sympathy and some grassroots motivation to help the party (I've seen a number of progressive non-ndp members speak about supporting the party now)

Greens - what once looks like a real win, looks again "fairly not great"; gaining members due to racist reasoning can't make one look good. And to then double down saying the NDP strong armed them back? It's the Pierre Nantel bigoted hypocrisy all over again (he said he can't support a leader with overt religious symbols... as he stood with May who was wearing visibly a Cross).

** note, I personally take these stories hard, as a member of an equity community, all my life I've heard these types of things as someone in the LGBT community

[lilTommy]

Timmins is very labour left.  Does not really fit with Singh's progressive left image.

I don't think there is 100% certainty that the NDP will win any seat in Ontario.  Even Hamilton Centre doesn't have their incumbent advantage.  Oddly, the safest seat might be a seat the NDP doesn't currently hold, Brampton East.

The NDP got 30% during the 2015 election, and Hughes won by 5% and Angus by 8%.  If the NDP is down 10% (more more), i see both of these going down.

These, I believe, are the NDP's best chances:

Brampton - East
Hamilton Centre
Brampton Centre
Brampton North
Toronto - Danforth
Parkdale - High Park
Davenport
Windsor-Tecumseh

Timmins-James Bay is more then just the City of Timmins; Charlie Angus will hold the riding on his own I would say.
I'm trying to see where Singh isn't a Labour Left candidate? He was the ONLY candidate to present worker policies on labour day such as banning scabs, federal minimum wage, contract worker benefits, etc. He's been endorsed by the USW (steelworkers) in a TV spot which I haven't seen before.
Unifor, once again is going anti-Tory; expect the public sector unions to support the NDP

Not sure if you mean specifically Northern Ontario? But the NDP won 30% in 2011 nationally, in 2015 the NDP won 19% nationally, so sitting at 17% is not that far off.

For Toronto:
Toronto-Danforth (the NDP had a campaign launch there last night)
Parkdale-High Park
Davenport
... for any other riding the NDP would have to be above 25% I'd say, unless there are some surprises based on candidates like Humber River-Black Creek where long time City Councillor Maria Augimeri is running.

Hamilton Centre, while Christopherson is retiring, high profile City Councillor Matthew Green is running. Of any Hamilton seat, this is not one I see the NDP losing.

Brampton - There is too much un-known right now; there is lots of NDP feet on the ground, but this is battle ground Peel. East and North would be my top two picks for the NDP, realistically though only East is winnable right now.

[lilTommy]

Davenport is the NDP's best bet for a seat in Toronto.  It's arguably the most left-wing seat in Toronto now.  Andrew Cash is running again and he's been working since December.

I can see that, mostly. Davenport does not have (from what I know) a wealthier enclave like some other seats that are arguably also very left-wing. But North of Davenport Road or St. Clair this is more Liberal then progressive/NDP (this is where the LPC won polls in the 2011 NDP sweep)

Parkdale-High Park -> If High Park was no within this riding, Parkdale would be already an NDP riding i'd argue, and is arguably one of the most leftist areas of the city. (LPC won polls in High Park during 2011)

Toronto-Danforth -> overall I'd argue the most progressive, generally an NDP riding, but swings to the LPC with large swings. It's made up of more, but smaller wealthier areas BUT still socially liberal/progressive, less Liberal. (LPC won 0 polls in 2011; to give you perspective, in 2011 the NDP won 60%, in 2015 the LPC won 42% during big swings for both parties. Of note, Jack Layton then NDP leader won Toronto-Danforth) But if you look provincially, in 2014 the ONDPs TO crush, the NDP still hung on here with 44%.

I do think the NDP will win one, if not all three of these... depending on how the campaign goes.

[lilTommy]

It seems that pollsters can't get the NDP/Green numbers down, we are all over the map. While the LPC and CPC numbers fluctuate by 1-2 percentage points from different pollsters, we are seeing that for the NDP and Greens we could have 8 point differences?

What is, for example, Nanos and Mainstreet doing different where one has the NDP at about 17% and the other has the NDP at 8%

[lilTommy]

Davenport is the NDP's best bet for a seat in Toronto.  It's arguably the most left-wing seat in Toronto now.  Andrew Cash is running again and he's been working since December.

I can see that, mostly. Davenport does not have (from what I know) a wealthier enclave like some other seats that are arguably also very left-wing. But North of Davenport Road or St. Clair this is more Liberal then progressive/NDP (this is where the LPC won polls in the 2011 NDP sweep)

Parkdale-High Park -> If High Park was no within this riding, Parkdale would be already an NDP riding i'd argue, and is arguably one of the most leftist areas of the city. (LPC won polls in High Park during 2011)

Toronto-Danforth -> overall I'd argue the most progressive, generally an NDP riding, but swings to the LPC with large swings. It's made up of more, but smaller wealthier areas BUT still socially liberal/progressive, less Liberal. (LPC won 0 polls in 2011; to give you perspective, in 2011 the NDP won 60%, in 2015 the LPC won 42% during big swings for both parties. Of note, Jack Layton then NDP leader won Toronto-Danforth) But if you look provincially, in 2014 the ONDPs TO crush, the NDP still hung on here with 44%.

I do think the NDP will win one, if not all three of these... depending on how the campaign goes.

Danforth kind of reverted to post-Layton "normalcy" in 2015 (though Tabuns' incumbency gave him a boost in 2018 that put it at the top for popular vote) , but is not as progressive municipally as the west end wards.

Davenport, meanwhile, is kind of looking like Trinity-Spadina in the 1980s and 1990s.

I think they are two different progressives. My view of it at least

Toronto Danforth has had a left-wing progressive on council, in the South end since forever, well before amalgamation. Remember this area, Riverdale, has had a NDP MPP since 67, continuously. Federally Broadview-Greenwood had a NDP MP from 65-88.
The area is much less a working-class progressive but middle-upper class intelligentsia progressive. Used to be where your leftist artists would move to, now they have been mostly gentrified out into the west end, or farther north (Out of Leslieville to Gerrard or East on the Danforth)

Davenport is the new kid to side with the NDP; used to be solid Liberal because of the immigrant community, mostly Portuguese or Italian. Still very working class, middle class, still very ethnically diverse, but much less Liberal backing. The NDP has done a really good job of building a grassroots base as a progressive option. Your students, young workers, artists, lower income people can still afford to live/work here. As mentioned before, particularly south of Davenport Rd. You can see the spill over into Parkdale (or vice versa).  

[lilTommy]

I'm going with Liberal Minority

[lilTommy]

Looks like the Cons are running a Christian conservative pro-life activist in York Centre.  Pretty sure Michael Levitt will hang on.  Knocks it off at the top of "most likely TO seats to go Conservative" list (I think it's Scarborough-Agincourt).

https://twitter.com/Carolyn_Bennett/status/1172121813977042946

Ya, that won't really work in TO... knock off a few points for the CPC. Ya, Scarborough-Agincourt the CPC pulled in 40% in the 2017 by-election. You then have to look at Etobicoke Centre and Don Valley North and Don Valley West as the next top targets I think  (probably less so Don Valley West, even though it is wealthier, I Think Oliphant is a more high profile incumbent)

[lilTommy]

Ya, that won't really work in TO... knock off a few points for the CPC. Ya, Scarborough-Agincourt the CPC pulled in 40% in the 2017 by-election. You then have to look at Etobicoke Centre and Don Valley North and Don Valley West as the next top targets I think  (probably less so Don Valley West, even though it is wealthier, I Think Oliphant is a more high profile incumbent)

Scarborough-Agincourt is clearly the seat where the Conservatives are most likely to win a seat.  Ironically it was one of two Liberal holdouts in 2011 due to the popularity of the very conservative Jim Karygiannis and the weakness of the NDP there.  

The main fault line in Scarborough politics, as adma has pointed out, is "Chinese" vs. "non-Chinese" Scarborough.  That was very evident in the provincial election where the PCs cracked 50% in Agincourt and Scarborough North but were held below 40% in the other ridings.  It'll be interesting to see if Scarborough North comes in at a clear #2 for Conservative vote in Scarborough.  It is heavily Chinese but has countervailing tendencies in its eastern half that Agincourt lacks.  

I'm getting the sense that Toronto's suburbs are looking more like the Vancouver ones, in terms of ethnic voting trends. Chinese communities leaning more conservative while the South Asian community leaning more progressive (Liberal and or NDP)

[lilTommy]

Also, Leaders debate, my take:

Scheer -> calm, but bland and boringly so. Spoke well and hit his points, but got caught a numbers of times in fights he just couldn't handle and effectively said he'd prioritize cuts over balanced budgets (not a big surprise but still). Didn't "win" or gain anything, but also didn't lose anything.

May -> loaded with info, a fountain of facts, but she came across and condescending at times and arrogant others. But also very knowledgeable and spoke clearly to points. But outright lied when caught by Singh around recent revelations about the Greens (abortion, sovereignty, propping CPC up, she said "that's a lie", but they aren't). Solid performance, but not a win. 

Singh -> cool and calm, spoke to people and about people, the most personable. But should have delved deeper into policies, I felt he was lacking on some detail. Went right after Scheer and Trudeau, even May, but nailed Scheer with a few jabs he was not expecting (around Trump in particular). Moderators were all united here, this was Singh's to claim as a win, and performed better then expected.

Trudeau -> didn't even show, so be default he was defined by how everyone else painted him, honestly the clear loser here. But, he does have one advantage, he just saw a bit of his competition and likely took notes.

Of Note, arguably in 2015 the Macleans debate was where Trudeau's performance helped turn the momentum towards him. I can see some of that going to both Singh and Scheer even.

[lilTommy]

Nanos tracking 9/16 ->
CPC 34.4%,
LPC 34%,
NDP 16.4%,
Greens 7.8%,
PPC 2.3%. 
*BQ was at 20.0% in Quebec

https://myemail.constantcontact.com/CTV-News-Globe-and-Mail-Nanos-Nightly-Tracking---BALLOT---CPC-34-4--LPC-34-0--NDP-16-4--GP-7-8--PPC-2-3---three-nights-ending-Se.html?soid=1101375804867&aid=r0aU2uQmT0k

Nanos 9/14&15th ->
LPC 35%,
CPC 32%,
NDP 17%,
Green 10%

https://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/2019-1445-CTV-Globe-ELXN-Ballot-Ending-September-14-2019.pdf

[lilTommy]

And the NDP candidate in Longueuil-Saint-Hubert is...

Eric Ferland, former leader of the Quebec Green Party

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1302108/npd-elections-candidat-parti-vert-longueuil-nantel?fbclid=IwAR1wCaATAXY4AZW3-pHIJ-9nxHYa3DO4fua4YDpE2-amdUVUL0LW9phCeG8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SeH4zd360uY&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR1vZKgP6Bl9GprbquIAcjD1079C5dq5reGoNZyRL1njxrWxf6sbwVL_Cvs


SO... the NDP candidate is a former Green, the Green candidate is a former NDP, the Liberal is a former PQ

[lilTommy]

Also, for Jagmeet's response, while I appreciate it, I don't think it works well politically.  He's kind of acting like the average joe is a leftist woke twitter/Tumbler SJW, and will feel a sense of guilt/empathy.  The problem is that people don't vote based on guilt.

I don't agree with that summary; Jagmeet's response was heartfelt and personal and not about Trudeau. I watching and you could see his eye, he was hurt and emotional and almost cried at one point. This was legitimately an honest response. It was not about guilt, it was about reaching out to those who have been hurt by hate and belittling and being bullied and disrespected. It was about not giving in to the hurt and depression and the pain that someone's bad joke caused.
I'm not a POC, but I am a member of the LGBT who is also a white guy, and I was able to identify personally with his statement.

The NDP have been having a great first week, this is unfortunately a terrible situation that might help the NDP with SJW voters particularly in areas they are targeting like Toronto/Vancouver and DT/urban seats like Winnipeg Centre, Edmonton-Strathcona (to hold it) and Edmonton Centre, Ottawa Centre, Halifax.   

[lilTommy]

Also, for Jagmeet's response, while I appreciate it, I don't think it works well politically.  He's kind of acting like the average joe is a leftist woke twitter/Tumbler SJW, and will feel a sense of guilt/empathy.  The problem is that people don't vote based on guilt.

I don't agree with that summary; Jagmeet's response was heartfelt and personal and not about Trudeau. I watching and you could see his eye, he was hurt and emotional and almost cried at one point. This was legitimately an honest response. It was not about guilt, it was about reaching out to those who have been hurt by hate and belittling and being bullied and disrespected. It was about not giving in to the hurt and depression and the pain that someone's bad joke caused.
I'm not a POC, but I am a member of the LGBT who is also a white guy, and I was able to identify personally with his statement.

The NDP have been having a great first week, this is unfortunately a terrible situation that might help the NDP with SJW voters particularly in areas they are targeting like Toronto/Vancouver and DT/urban seats like Winnipeg Centre, Edmonton-Strathcona (to hold it) and Edmonton Centre, Ottawa Centre, Halifax, Holding their MTL seats.

[lilTommy]

I'm really proud of Jagmeet's response.  It definitely has the ability to turn around the campaign. It's unfortunate that this has to be reason for it.

Actually, I found the statement rather overwrought. Canada is, without question, the most tolerant, welcoming, and integrating place on earth. Canadians take a lot of pride in that fact, and a single truly stupid and insensitive photo cannot undo it. To pretend that a photo like this somehow makes Canada less tolerant is just absurd. And to pretend that Trudeau is like people who go around beating minorities up is even more absurd.

If that's what you got out of his response, there is something wrong with your comprehension skills.

And no, Canada is not "the most tolerant, welcoming and integrating place on earth". What a ridiculous thing to say.

No, what I got out of Singh's response is that he really hopes to capitalize on this politically. And what I get out of your response is that you really hope that Singh capitalizes on it politically.

But I would love to hear which countrirs are more tolerant, better integrated, more welcoming of migrants, and have more politically correct cultural norms. Just because Singh (and you, apparently) know a racist dude doesn't make Canada any less liberal and open.

What? Singh literally made this, repeatedly, not about Trudeau unlike Scheer especially his first video response the night of. The man was genuinely almost brought to tears. Of all the leaders, Singh is trying (even if its only in appearance) to not capitalize or actively "go-after" Trudeau. He went back into campaign mode today talking about Pharmacare, Denticare and small business.
Yes I am a Singh supporter. having seen him a number of times both staged and unscripted, he's incredibly personable unscripted. I found his response honest.

I think that's hard to say as Canadians we see all of it. So first, my impressions of places like New Zealand for one that fits that mold like Canada. But after that?

[lilTommy]

Angus Reid:
http://angusreid.org/election-2019-blackface-scandal/?fbclid=IwAR1okxdVnYb_H_Ey1NKxpkL2vHrWXMEpU7vBbsOc5aAlsOvxuwCDSFS_oxk

CPC- 35% -1
LPC - 30% -3
NDP - 15% +2
GRN - 11% +2
BQ - 6% +1
PPC - 3% -1

[lilTommy]

A big Manitoba poll by Probe show the Liberals plummeting in Winnipeg largely to the benefit of the NDP

https://www.winnipegfreepress.com/special/federal-election/ndp-makes-gains-in-winnipeg-at-liberals-expense-poll-561908582.html

I believe the NDP bump has been slowly happening in Winnipeg for a few months, probably thanks to the provincial election as well.
I still see the NDP likely holding Elmwood-Transcona, and Winnipeg Centre is looking more and more like a potential pick-up. But not much else I think. Enough though to maybe cost the LPC seats to the CPC.

[lilTommy]

Interesting poll of native Canadians:

Con: 26%
Lib: 21
NDP: 17
Green: 16


n= "1,024 people self-identifying as First Nations, Inuit or Métis"

https://aptnnews.ca/2019/10/02/vote2019-climate-change-and-drinking-water-top-indigenous-issues-in-federal-election/

Are indigenous voters a bellwether bloc in Canada?

No. Inuit and Metis voters are concentrated in about 10 ridings in Manitoba and the high north and their votes respond more to local issues and/or the personalities of the people running. First Nations indigenous people are more spread out, though many of them live on reservations or in the downtowns of cities like Montreal, Halifax, and Toronto. In both cases they tend to be somewhat segregated from the non-indigenous population, and so tend to have different sets of political priorities.

Also, indigenous people make up about 5% of the total population and tend to vote in lower numbers than settler/immigrant groups.

All from 2016 stats. The provinces of Manitoba and Saskatchewan have the highest % of peoples who are indigenous, 18% and 16%, outside of the Territories where Yukon (23%) is about a quarter and NWT (50.7%) and Nunavut (85%) have pluralities.

Winnipeg (92,000) and Edmonton (76,000) have the largest number of Indigenous peoples, whom make up 12% and 6% respectively. But Price Albert SK has the highest % of their cities population being indigenous, 39%. Thunder Bay (12%), Saskatoon (10%), Sudbury (9.7%) and Regina(9.3) round that out.

[lilTommy]

Riding's, Indigenous%, Previous MPs Party

Nunavut - 85.9%  -  LPC
Churchill–Keewatinook Aski, MB   - 76.3%   -   NDP
Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River, SK - 70.9%   -  NDP
Northwest Territories   -  50.7%  -  LPC
Kenora, ON -  46.8%  -  LPC
Labrador, NL - 43.7%  -  LPC
Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou, QC -  38.2%  -  NDP
Skeena–Bulkley Valley, BC   -  34.1%  -  NDP
Prince Albert, SK - 30.6%  -  CPC
Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa, MB - 26.5%  -  CPC

A number of others with High %

Battlefords--Lloydminster   -  24%
Peace River--Westlock   -  22.79%
Regina--Qu'Appelle  -  20.98%
Long Range Mountains   -  23.57%
Selkirk--Interlake--Eastman   -   20.53%
Timmins - James Bay   -   19.25%
Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing   -   19.17%
Manicouagan   -   18.15%
Winnipeg Centre  -  18.51%
Saskatoon West   -  18.5%
Winnipeg North  -  17.89%
Cariboo--Prince George  -  16%
Thunder Bay - Rainy River   -   16%
Thunder Bay - Superior North   -   15%

http://www.cpac.ca/en/cpac-in-focus/census-2016-house-commons-indigenous-identity/

[lilTommy]

Scheer has dual American citizenship which he is currently renouncing.

Why?
Mulcair has French dual citizenship, and he did not renounce in 2015 (from what I recall) It is not a requirement for Canadian politicians to only be Canadian citizens as far as I know.

[lilTommy]

Look what a difference it makes when a riding poll gives names of local candidates and not just party names. Ruth Ellen Brosseau of the NDP has a solid lead in her riding

https://www.lenouvelliste.ca/elections-2019/sondage-mainstreetle-nouvelliste-ruth-ellen-brosseau-en-avance-4607807cf318e4b2f98464ccb10f20fa

THIS!
When you don't provide local context, this how polling is used to sku, to mis-inform and to actually try and sway an election. Voters always vote, effectively, twice; the candidate on the ballot and the party.

Anyway, I always thought REB was "mostly safe"
I'd like to see how the other dozen or so NPD held ridings would be polled now, My hunch is the NPD could hold 4-6 mostly on the local candidate. (Caron, Boulerice, REB, PLD) I think demographically Laurier--Sainte-Marie and Hochelaga are likely to be NPD holds even without incumbents. 
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou I think the NPDs candidate has a strong chance, more then in Abitibi—Témiscamingue, but QS was elected out this way so the advantage might be the NPD there.
The rest, probably lost to the LPC or BQ, unless the NPD is lucky. 

[lilTommy]

My take on the Debate:

The format was a bit messy, and fast paced but not in a very good way. It really didn't leave anyone the ability to detail anything. It was set up for quick jabs and points.

-> Trudeau - Looked Angry and frustrated; no major failures or anything he just didn't come across looking very good. Scored some solid jabs against Scheer, but really was the brunt of most people.
-> Scheer - far too aggressive and at points, just mean spirited. He still is un-likable, The CPC somehow managed to track down an even more un-charismatic leader then Harper. His jabs against Trudeau were nothing new, many decent ones though. I just can't see his performance appealing to swing voters.
-> May - Solid, she is the best at delivery facts and figures in these condensed time slots, at times though a bit condescending.
-> Singh - Cool, confident, the most at ease and, as the CBC put it, the most "human" had some of the best one-liners and "zingers" Lacked detail though in most of the policy points. The short 30-45 second time does not work for Singh who's a bit of a story teller.

Singh - B+
May - B
Trudeau - C
Scheer - D-

[lilTommy]

Leger 10/9

LPC: 31% (-3)
CPC: 31% (-3)
NDP: 18% (+4)
GPC: 11% (-)
PPC: 3% (+1)

*Note: BQ not included in federal numbers, but polling at 29% in QC specifically. (LPC - 31%, CPC - 16%, NDP 13%, GRN - 7%, PPC - 3%)

Mainstreet 10/8

CPC: 32% (-1.1)
LPC: 31.7% (-0.9)
NDP: 14.3% (+1.1)
GPC: 10.3% (+0.2)
BQ: 6.1% (-0.4)
PPC: 4.2% (+0.8 )

[lilTommy]

POLLING!

Leader Approvals/Disapprovals:

Singh: 49% (+16) / 22% (-7) - net approval +27
May: 42% (+3) / 24% (-1) - net approval +18
Trudeau: 31% (-) / 54% (-) - net approval -23
Scheer: 27% (-2) / 53% (+6) - net approval - 26

Campaign Research / Oct 9, 2019 / n=3147 / MOE 1.8% / Online

(% chg w Oct 2)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

CPC: 34% (-3)
LPC: 29% (-1)
NDP: 17% (+3)
GPC: 9% (+1)
BQ: 7% (-)
PPC: 3% (-)

Angus Reid / October 10, 2019 / n=2926 / Online

(% chg w Oct 1)

Leader Favourability:

Jagmeet Singh: 59% (+13)
Yves-Francois Blanchet: 52% (-)
Elizabeth May: 44% (+3)
Andrew Scheer: 38% (-3)
Justin Trudeau: 35% (-)
Maxime Bernier: 15% (-3)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


LPC: 35% (-)
CPC: 31% (-2)
NDP: 15% (+2)
GPC: 10% (-)
BQ: 6% (+1)
PPC: 3% (-1)

Innovative Research / October 10, 2019 / n=1939 / Online

(% chg w Oct 7)

[lilTommy]

I'm not quite sure how to ask this question, but what is the minimum percentage of the vote a party could realistically receive and still win a majority?  Especially with there being 5-6 major political parties.

For instance, Labor in the U.K in 2005 won 35.2% of the vote but won a comfortable majority of 366 of 646 seats. I don't know that anybody expected that to happen.

Based on the last two majorities, 2011 and 2015, about 39%. We had minorities in 2008 (37% for the largest party) and 2006 (36%).

[lilTommy]

CPC: 33% (-1)
LPC: 29% (-)
NDP: 19% (+2)
GPC: 8% (-1)
BQ: 8% (+1)
PPC: 3%  (-)

ONTARIO          BC                  QUEBEC        ATLANTIC        SK/MB
CPC - 34%        CPC - 32%     LPC - 29%     CPC - 37%      CPC - 50%
LPC - 34%        LPC - 26%       BQ - 32%      LPC - 29%     NDP - 23%
NDP - 20%       NDP - 26%     CPC - 17%     NDP - 17%     LPC - 18%
GPC - 9%         GPC - 9%        NDP - 12%    GPC - 15%      GPC - 5%
                                             GPC - 6%
Angus Reid / October 15, 2019 / n=1984 / MOE 2% / Online

(% chg w Oct 10)

*Leader Favourabilities:

Jagmeet Singh: 64% (+5)
Yves Francois Blanchet: 56% (+4)
Elizabeth May: 47% (+3)
Andrew Scheer: 37% (-1)
Justin Trudeau: 36% (+1)
Maxime Bernier: 17% (+2)

*Those who have already voted:

CPC: 32%
LPC: 28%
NDP: 18%
BQ: 7%
GPC: 7%
PPC: 3%

http://angusreid.org/election-2019-final-week/