I agree with all but Alaska. Begich's ground game seems to be stronger and Alaska voters are hard to predict. I think it's R+7 when all is said and done, whether Orman or Roberts wins.
Assuming Orman doesn't weasel out of his "caucus with the majority" pledge and caucus with the Dems anyway. Sure he'll be castigated for it, but 6 years is a long time for voters to forgive and forget, and he stands a much better chance winning re-election in KS even as a Dem than he would surviving a GOP primary.
Plus if it's 51-48 R, he may go ahead and caucus with the Dems so he doesn't have to flip in 2016, which would just be awkward.
