Sabato's final prediction: R+8 in Senate, R+9 in House

[JRP1994]

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-crystal-balls-final-2014-picks/

[KCDem]

Loony Larry strikes again!

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Hard to argue anything definitely. Looks about right though Alaska is true toss-up. I couldn't blame someone either way on that. Maybe even Kansas too.

[Consciously Unconscious]

This has been my prediction for a few days now. 

[Ljube]

Mine too.

[SWE]

Agree with all senate ratings except Kansas

[KCDem]

JUNK PREDICTION!

[Lief 🗽]

Sounds reasonable.

[Recalcuate]

This has been my prediction for a few days now. 

Mine as well. KS is a pure tossup at this point, but R+7, R+8 is probably the most likely of all the probabilities.

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

JUNK PREDICTION!

Junk toupee!

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I agree with all but Alaska. Begich's ground game seems to be stronger and Alaska voters are hard to predict. I think it's R+7 when all is said and done, whether Orman or Roberts wins.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

JUNK PREDICTION!

AK and La or Ga our best bet, gop net 5

[Badger]

I agree with all but Alaska. Begich's ground game seems to be stronger and Alaska voters are hard to predict. I think it's R+7 when all is said and done, whether Orman or Roberts wins.

Assuming Orman doesn't weasel out of his "caucus with the majority" pledge and caucus with the Dems anyway. Sure he'll be castigated for it, but 6 years is a long time for voters to forgive and forget, and he stands a much better chance winning re-election in KS even as a Dem than he would surviving a GOP primary.

[SWE]

I agree with all but Alaska. Begich's ground game seems to be stronger and Alaska voters are hard to predict. I think it's R+7 when all is said and done, whether Orman or Roberts wins.

Assuming Orman doesn't weasel out of his "caucus with the majority" pledge and caucus with the Dems anyway. Sure he'll be castigated for it, but 6 years is a long time for voters to forgive and forget, and he stands a much better chance winning re-election in KS even as a Dem than he would surviving a GOP primary.

An independent wouldn't run in a GOP primary

[7,052,770]

I agree with all but Alaska. Begich's ground game seems to be stronger and Alaska voters are hard to predict. I think it's R+7 when all is said and done, whether Orman or Roberts wins.

Assuming Orman doesn't weasel out of his "caucus with the majority" pledge and caucus with the Dems anyway. Sure he'll be castigated for it, but 6 years is a long time for voters to forgive and forget, and he stands a much better chance winning re-election in KS even as a Dem than he would surviving a GOP primary.

Plus if it's 51-48 R, he may go ahead and caucus with the Dems so he doesn't have to flip in 2016, which would just be awkward.

[Badger]

I agree with all but Alaska. Begich's ground game seems to be stronger and Alaska voters are hard to predict. I think it's R+7 when all is said and done, whether Orman or Roberts wins.

Assuming Orman doesn't weasel out of his "caucus with the majority" pledge and caucus with the Dems anyway. Sure he'll be castigated for it, but 6 years is a long time for voters to forgive and forget, and he stands a much better chance winning re-election in KS even as a Dem than he would surviving a GOP primary.

An independent wouldn't run in a GOP primary

Well, obviously if he chooses this route he'll formally join the GOP at some point. I can't see him successfully running for re-election as an independent after caucusing with the Republicans. This is KS, not New England.

[Badger]

I agree with all but Alaska. Begich's ground game seems to be stronger and Alaska voters are hard to predict. I think it's R+7 when all is said and done, whether Orman or Roberts wins.

Assuming Orman doesn't weasel out of his "caucus with the majority" pledge and caucus with the Dems anyway. Sure he'll be castigated for it, but 6 years is a long time for voters to forgive and forget, and he stands a much better chance winning re-election in KS even as a Dem than he would surviving a GOP primary.

Plus if it's 51-48 R, he may go ahead and caucus with the Dems so he doesn't have to flip in 2016, which would just be awkward.

Quite possible I agree. But he may use the likely Democratic gains in 2016 to "keep his word to Kansas and caucus with the majority" and caucus with the Democrats like he obviously wants. Then he'll hope the GOP doesn't win back the Senate in 2018.

[Maxwell]

Why would Orman caucus with the Republicans ever though? They would have him in a closet and wouldn't give him any seats on committees. All they would try to do is make him unelectable when he tries to run for re-election. Democrats would give him the world and then some. There's no comparison that he would "do more" for Kansas as a Democrat.

There is exactly a 0% chance he caucuses with the Republicans.

[Lief 🗽]

I agree with Maxwell completely.

Either way, he's a one-term senator. At least as a Democrat he would have some power and wouldn't be completely hated.

[KingSweden]

I remain skeptical that the R's hit their best total since 1994 (or if they get above 8, 1980) with their own brand in the toilet. R+7 I imagine is the ceiling when all is said and done.

[Badger]

I agree with Maxwell completely.

Either way, he's a one-term senator. At least as a Democrat he would have some power and wouldn't be completely hated.

You guys might be right. It wouldn't shock me. I'm just saying there's a chance that McConnell and his caucus try to make nice with Orman to keep him on the team as a buffer against likely losses in 16. Orman likewise can "keep to his word" to his constituents and spend the next 6 years repairing bridges with the KS GOP to overcome a primary challenge (which he may well decide is even less of a threat than running for re-election as a Democrat).

Again, it wouldn't shock me if he caucuses with the Democrats, majority or not, I'm just saying the chance of him sticking with the GOP majority isn't zero (but yeah, probably less than 50/50).

[ElectionsGuy]

I agree with all except Kansas. There's a slight tilt toward Orman in the polls, but this race has been the hardest to call all cycle.

[Bigby]

I'd put Georgia as "Leans/Likely Runoff" and I'd put Kansas as "Leans Independent." Other than that and maybe putting Alaska as "Unknown," this sounds reasonable.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Maybe just create "Alaska" as a new category as short-hand for "NFI"