2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Michigan

[cvparty]

I think this map is perfection:





https://davesredistricting.org/join/86c3575b-47c5-455b-bdef-ba4557967108

Two AA districts now (I doubt the population numbers by 2020 will be correct though,  probably both very under-populated).

MI-3 (Red) really should go west from Grand Rapids, not east,  the metro itself extends west into Ottawa, makes the most sense.

Love the Flint and Lansing seats, both competitive, both respect COI's in the area.

Tons of competitive seats on the map overall,  only five seats were won by either party by more than 10% (including the two AA ones),  with 3 within 5%.

This is my favorite so far.

Perfect?!?  You unnecessarily pull Grand Rapids out of Kent County severing the suburbs and how you drew Detroit was a blatant Dem gerrymander by cracking republican leaning areas.  You made a 7-6 map and so did I: https://davesredistricting.org/join/1d117936-4d28-4a7a-9dfe-529e010bef54
mine actually respects COIs.

gotta love that 20-mile wide fajita strip COI that stretches like 200 miles

[cvparty]

why not this, compact, 10 county splits, COI preservation and and 7-6 trump

violates the VRA

how so? michigan goes down to 13 CDs and detroit has shrunk significantly relative to the state

[cvparty]

But there are still sufficient black electors for it to be possible for them to elect two representatives of their choice and they're geographically concentrated enough to pass the Gingles test. Instead you've packed them into a district that must be about 75% AA. That's as obvious a violation of the VRA as you'll ever see.

well i'm sorry i was just following city lines and compactness

[cvparty]

why not this, compact, 10 county splits, COI preservation and 7-6 trump


MI-01: Trump +23
MI-02: Trump+9
MI-03: Trump +24
MI-04: Trump +21
MI-05: Clinton +1
MI-06: Trump +8
MI-07: Clinton +16
MI-08: Trump +4
MI-09: Clinton +42
MI-10: Trump +31
MI-11: Clinton +3
MI-12: Clinton +9
MI-13: Clinton +54

[cvparty]

why not this, compact, 10 county splits, COI preservation and and 7-6 trump

violates the VRA, just reach the second black district into southern Oakland County and you'll get the numbers you need.  A tendril into Pontiac isn't even needed.

here I edited my map for more compactness and evening out the black populations in vra districts.  Still 7 Trump 6 Clinton.  4 safe R (Huron Shore, UP, west coast, Detroit exurbs),  2 likely R(South MI, Macomb), 1 Lean R(Grand Rapids),  2 lean D(Flint, Lansing), 1 likely D(Oakland),  3 safe D(2 Detroit, Ann Arbor).
https://davesredistricting.org/join/1d117936-4d28-4a7a-9dfe-529e010bef54

your map still consists of many strangely configured districts, ex. mackinack bridge all the way to metro detroit, monroe to kalamazoo, stretching grand rapids out into rural counties instead of keeping it an urban district

[cvparty]

why not this, compact, 10 county splits, COI preservation and 7-6 trump


MI-01: Trump +23
MI-02: Trump+9
MI-03: Trump +24
MI-04: Trump +21
MI-05: Clinton +1
MI-06: Trump +8
MI-07: Clinton +16
MI-08: Trump +4
MI-09: Clinton +42
MI-10: Trump +31
MI-11: Clinton +3
MI-12: Clinton +9
MI-13: Clinton +54

Non Detroit metro is fine but in Detroit the districts are a bit odd, particularly sending the black districts deep into suburban territory.  One black district can remain entirely in Wayne, the other can go into southern Oakland to get enough blacks to get to 49-50%.  Generally speaking it's good to split counties once if at all.  There should be a Macomb district, it would end up being aswing district since Macomb went Obama in 2012, Trump in 2016, then Dem in 2018 for governor and senate.

if i do what you say it changes the whole configurement of the map. i don’t want to do a 9-4 gerrymander lmao. from a COI standpoint the suburbs that get paired with detroit are blue collar as well which at least makes sense, all while having two wealthy COI suburban districts (7 and 11) and i already have an entirely wayne-based blue collar one (12).

[cvparty]

https://imgur.com/a/pQIkR45
https://imgur.com/7d7Ddl7
6-1-6 map
4 county breaks

that looks more like 7 splits. also your number of splits definitely has any significance with regard to redistricting

[cvparty]

why is half this thread just idaho conservative posting gerrymanders/praising himself for “keeping COIs together”

[cvparty]

ok i tried my best at a fair COI-based map with partisan data off. think i'm pretty satisfied with it since it's compact, only splits 10 counties, and keeps the grand rapids, lansing and tri-cities areas together. the sacrifices made are the detroit exurbs (shared among the two suburban detroit districts and lansing) and wayne's WWC neighborhoods (necessary for VRA districts)

it ends up being 7-6 obama, 7-6 trump, 8-5 whitmer. tipping point seat is CD8 which is consistently 2-5 points to the right of the state, so there's a GOP tilt


MI-01: Obama +1 | Romney +9 | Trump +23
MI-02: McCain +6 | Romney +14 | Trump +9
MI-03: Obama +2 | Romney +6 | Trump +24
MI-04: Obama +6 | Romney +5 | Trump +21
MI-05: Obama +24 | Obama +18 | Clinton +1
MI-06: Obama +7 | Romney +2 | Trump +8
MI-07: Obama +20 | Obama +14 | Clinton +16
MI-08: Obama +10 | Obama +3 | Trump +5
MI-09: Obama +16 | Obama +15 | Clinton +6
MI-10: McCain +1 | Romney +10 | Trump +31
MI-11: Obama +8 | Obama +1 | Clinton +2
MI-12: Obama +61 | Obama +62 | Clinton +54
MI-13: Obama +64 | Obama +63 | Clinton +48

[cvparty]

ok i tried my best at a fair COI-based map with partisan data off. think i'm pretty satisfied with it since it's compact, only splits 10 counties, and keeps the grand rapids, lansing and tri-cities areas together. the sacrifices made are the detroit exurbs (shared among the two suburban detroit districts and lansing) and wayne's WWC neighborhoods (necessary for VRA districts)

it ends up being 7-6 obama, 7-6 trump, 8-5 whitmer. tipping point seat is CD8 which is consistently 2-5 points to the right of the state, so there's a GOP tilt


MI-01: Obama +1 | Romney +9 | Trump +23
MI-02: McCain +6 | Romney +14 | Trump +9
MI-03: Obama +2 | Romney +6 | Trump +24
MI-04: Obama +6 | Romney +5 | Trump +21
MI-05: Obama +24 | Obama +18 | Clinton +1
MI-06: Obama +7 | Romney +2 | Trump +8
MI-07: Obama +20 | Obama +14 | Clinton +16
MI-08: Obama +10 | Obama +3 | Trump +5
MI-09: Obama +16 | Obama +15 | Clinton +6
MI-10: McCain +1 | Romney +10 | Trump +31
MI-11: Obama +8 | Obama +1 | Clinton +2
MI-12: Obama +61 | Obama +62 | Clinton +54
MI-13: Obama +64 | Obama +63 | Clinton +48

Could you post the DRA map?
I want to make a change or 2.

my posted map is with extrapolated 2020 populations but here's with 2018 numbers

[cvparty]

Does this look better?

i’m curious, how would you draw a map without the second VRA district going north of southfield?