UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[Clyde1998]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-would-cut-billions-from-scottish-budget-to-fund-english-tax-cuts-10076356.html

UKIP are saying that they would cut the Devolved Governments Budget (to save £8bn) by scrapping the Barnett Formula.

Using Scotland - the tax revenue in Scotland is around £53bn and the Scottish budget is £46bn. Not having everything back is fair enough - as Scotland has to pay for its share of military spending, border controls, welfare, etc.

£53bn includes 84.2% of the North Sea oil revenue (which is based on the geographic location of the oil). With a population share it was £48.1bn and without oil it was £47.6bn. Regardless of the amount of oil allocated to Scotland, there was a net loss for that year based on total spend allocated to Scotland.

However, based on the historical GERS figures, between 1980-81 (when the Barnett Forumla was introduced) and 2011-12 - Scotland's total surplus was up to nearly £150bn. This includes the debt that Scotland effectively had in 1979-80 (around £9bn). This is based on Scotland being independent (either politically or financially), having a geographic share of oil, generated the same tax and had the same expenditure. Also, as it's based on Scotland being independent, Scotland has no UK debt after 1980 allocated to it. (See section 6)

Scotland isn't subsided by the UK. The solution to the problem is giving each devolved government Full Fiscal Autonomy - and allowing each government to borrow money when it needs it.

[Clyde1998]

How surprising! English nationalists hate Wales and Scotland.

I think a major issue is that there is a strong view that England subsides the rest of the UK - when it doesn't. This is never countered by the media, as the biggest media sources are based in England, so people continue to believe it.

[Clyde1998]

More constituency polls are being conducted by Ashcroft in Scotland. The current suggestions are:

East Renfrewshire - Labour held (Lab at Holyrood)
Rutherglen & Hamilton West - Labour held (Lab/SNP at Holyrood)
Lanark & Hamilton East - Labour held (Lab/SNP at Holyrood)
Edinburgh West - Lib Dem held (SNP at Holyrood)
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath - Labour held (Lab/SNP at Holyrood)
Ross, Skye & Lochaber - Lib Dem held (SNP at Holyrood)

The 'suggestions' are based on Populus (who conduct the polling) are polling people in these areas. However, Labour are also using Populus for internal polling in certain seats at the moment, so they may not emerge as Ashcroft polls.

Usual stuff should be said about local polls, but I'm going to suggest that the SNP will not be doing as well as they were in the last lot of seats polled (as these are 'no' voting areas), but they might still do quite well - especially in seats where they do well in the Scottish Parliament.

[Clyde1998]

Back to the Lib Dems again.

I think one reason why a lot of people aren't expecting a total disaster for them (say well below 20) is to do with Ashcroft's polling, which on the headline figures shows them holding several seats which they might not be expected to in the wipeout scenario.

However, whatever you think of constituency polling, the way the questions are asked in the Ashcroft polls needs to be taken into account.  His polls first ask the "standard" question, "If there was a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for?".  They then, to the same respondents, ask a second question, "Thinking specifically about your own PARLIAMENTARY constituency at the next General Election and the candidates who are likely to stand FOR ELECTION TO WESTMINSTER there, which party's candidate do you think you will vote for in your own constituency?"  (Capitals as they appear in the tables; I've no idea what this means in a phone poll.)

In many constituencies, the second question gets pretty similar answers to the first, but the Lib Dems tend to do a lot better on it, and those headline figures with them ahead are always based on this second question.  (I don't think a single Ashcroft poll conducted in the last year has put them ahead on the first question.)  Now, perhaps the second question is better, but it strikes me that asking the two questions in this way might be acting as a prompt for people considering a tactical or personal vote to answer that way, and we know that pollsters are supposed to be careful with order of questions.  So I think it's possible (but don't really have any evidence) that the Ashcroft polls might be giving the Lib Dems too much of a boost.

For example, here are the figures from Carshalton & Wallington, polled last October/November:
First question Con 30, LD 25, UKIP 22, Lab 17, Green 4
Second question LD 44, Con 22, UKIP 17, Lab 12, Green 3.
So 19% of the sample appear to have changed from something else to Lib Dem between the two questions.  Is this a boost we can really believe in?

They appear to be gaining support from the Conservatives in the second question - as well. Doesn't seem right. If it was to do with tactical voting, then you'd expect the Conservative vote to stay solid at least...

[Clyde1998]

12 polls.  I presume these are based on the "constituency" question.

Scotland - look away unionists

West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine: SNP 14 ahead (of Lib Dem?)
Ross, Skye & Lochaber: SNP 5 ahead (Kennedy's seat)
Dumfriesshire et al: SNP/Con tie
Dumfries & Galloway: SNP 3 ahead
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock: SNP 11 ahead
Edinburgh SW: SNP 13 ahead (!)
East Renfrewshire: Lab 1 ahead
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath: SNP 6 ahead

Wales

Vale of Glamorgan: Con 6 ahead of Lab

England

Colne Valley: Con 1 ahead of Lab
High Peak: Lab 1 ahead of Con
Norwich North: Lab 1 ahead of Con

For Scotland (using Headline Figures):
Aberdeenshire West: SNP 39%, Con 25%, Lib 20%, Lab 10%, Ukip 3%, Grn 2%
Ayr, Carrick, Cumnock: SNP 42%, Lab 31%, Con 21%, Ukip 3%, Lib 2%, Grn <1%
Dumfries, Clydesdale: SNP 34%, Con 34%, Lab 18%, Lib 7%, Ukip 4%, Grn 2%
Dumfries & Galloway: SNP 34%, Con 30%, Lab 28%, Ukip 4%, Lib 2%, Grn 2%
East Renfrewshire: Lab 34%, SNP 33%, Con 26%, Grn 3%, Lib 2%, Ukip 1%
Edinburgh South West: SNP 40%, Lab 27%, Con 19%, Grn 7%, Lib 4%, Ukip 2%
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath: SNP 45%, Lab 39%, Con 7%, Lib 3%, Ukip 3%, Grn 3%
Ross, Skye, Lochaber: SNP 40%, Lib 35%, Lab 9%, Con 8%, Grn 5%, Ukip 3%

The only seat where Labour are ahead in is Jim Murphy's seat - who is Scottish Labour leader.

[Clyde1998]

Based on the Scottish constituency polls so far:



SNP - Yellow
LAB - Red
Tie - Cyan

[Clyde1998]

If these results are accurate, where else might the Unionist parties be holding on?

Away from Scotland, here's another article about Sheffield Hallam.  I walked past that house no. 234 in the photo earlier today; it's in a very studenty area.

Orkney & Shetland and Berwickshire most likely. Not many Unionist areas left by the looks of things.

[Clyde1998]

Unionist is hardly a neutral term.

Unionists being the ones who opposed Scottish independence.
Nationalists being the ones who supported independence.

[Clyde1998]

For some reason a new YouGov/Evening Standard poll of The Great City Babylon, even though the last one is still fresh. Money to burn? Anyway, modest pro-Labour movement from said earlier poll. Figures reported to be:

Labour 44, Con 32, UKIP 10, LDem 7, Greens 5

Which is a swing of around 5pts from 2010; YouGov's national polls are usually showing national swings of between 2pts and 4pts currently.

London may be more likely to swing to Labour than the rest of the country, as they're pledging not to hold an EU referendum - and London doesn't seem to want to leave the EU (based on national poll sub-samples). The Conservatives are offering an EU referendum.

[Clyde1998]

Kezia Dugdale is showing why people are turning their back on Labour [in Scotland] on tonight's Question Time. She is really out of her depth.

[Clyde1998]

Another poll of Wales (usual caveats apply, blah, blah) done by YouGov for ITN:

Labour 39, Con 25, UKIP 14, Plaid 10, Greens 6, LDem 5

Compared to the last YouGov poll of Wales.

Lab - Up 2
Con - Up 2
UKIP - Down 2
Plaid - N/C
Green - Down 2
Lib - Down 1

Good to see UKIP continue to fall.

[Clyde1998]

YouGov polls only.

It seems that most of the Lib Dem 2010 votes moved to Labour early on, before some moved to UKIP more recently. They seem to be moving back to Labour again.

[Clyde1998]

YouGov polls only.

It seems that most of the Lib Dem 2010 votes moved to Labour early on, before some moved to UKIP more recently. They seem to be moving back to Labour again.

That is not how votes work.

I know it won't be only Lib Dem voters moving to Labour, but a sizeable amount of their support will have moved towards Labour for their support to fall almost as fast as the Labour vote rose. (As an example)

Annoyingly, YouGov don't publish 2010 Vote in their Wales tables (they do for the UK-wide and Scotland polls though). The links at the bottom are an example of this.

This means that the assumptions I've made are based on the way each party gains and losses support compared to each other.

Wales Jan 2015 Poll, UK-wide 9 Mar 2015 Poll

[Clyde1998]

YouGov have polled Scotland gain. Changes since their February 2nd poll

SNP 46 (-2)
LAB 27
CON 18 (+3)
LIB 4
UKIP 2 (-2)
GRN 3

Only really interesting news is the further drop in Jim Murphy's approval rating. 26% think he's doing well down from 33%

It would be interesting to see what it is among Labour voters.

Meanwhile, STV have announced a TV debate between the four main Scottish parties.

Murphy vs Sturgeon would be interesting...

[Clyde1998]

YouGov have polled Scotland gain. Changes since their February 2nd poll

SNP 46 (-2)
LAB 27
CON 18 (+3)
LIB 4
UKIP 2 (-2)
GRN 3

Only really interesting news is the further drop in Jim Murphy's approval rating. 26% think he's doing well down from 33%

More on this - YouGov have changed their methodology since their last poll in Scotland.

They're now including weighting based on how people voted in the referendum.

This means that the current hypothetical referendum voting intention is: Yes 49%; No 51%. While this is a lower Yes% than the last poll - that poll would've shown the same thing if weighted the same way.

YouGov have also included a column showing how 'Labour voters in 2010 who voted Yes in 2014' are planning to vote in 2015:
SNP - 81%
Lab - 18%
Grn - 1%

Additionally...

Born in Scotland voting intentions - 2015:
SNP - 51%
Lab - 25%
Con - 16%
Lib - 3%
Oth - 5%

Born in Rest of UK voting intentions - 2015:
Lab - 36%
SNP - 30%
Con - 22%
Lib - 5%
Oth - 7%

Approval Ratings
Nicola Sturgeon (SNP): +42
Jim Murphy (S-Lab): -10
David Cameron (Con): -36
Ed Miliband (Lab): -53
Nick Clegg (Lib): -70

[Clyde1998]

Scotland Survation/Unison Poll:
SNP - 47.1% [+1.8]
Lab - 28.0% [+0.5]
Con - 14.5% [-0.5]
Lib - 4.0% [-1.0]
UKIP - 3.4% [+0.2]
Grn - 2.3% [-1.1]

Fieldwork: 6-10 March 2015

[Clyde1998]

Scotland Survation/Daily Record poll:
SNP - 47.1% [n/c]
Lab - 26.1% [-1.9]
Con - 15.5% [+1.0]
UKIP - 4.3% [+0.9]
Lib - 4.0% [n/c]
Grn - 2.2% [-0.1]

85.1% of SNP supporters voted 'yes' in the referendum - this figure is 19.4% for Labour and 3.2% for the Conservatives. Incredibly, 23.6% of 2011 Lib Dem voters and 18.9% of 2011 Labour voters plan to vote SNP in May.

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:
SNP - 49.8% [+0.6]
Lab - 26.3% [-0.6]
Con - 13.3% [+0.4]
Lib - 5.0% [n/c]
UKIP - 2.5% [+0.3]
Grn - 2.0% [-1.1]

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:
SNP - 39.4% [-1.9]
Lab - 22.8% [+0.3]
Con - 14.6% [+2.7]
Grn - 11.1% [-1.5]
UKIP - 5.5% [+0.5]
Lib - 5.3% [-0.4]

The near proportional Scottish Parliament would look like (according to ScotlandVotes):
*SNP - 69 seats (N/C on 2011)
*Lab - 26 seats (-11)
*Con - 15 seats (N/C)
*Grn - 11 seats (+9)
*Lib - 5 seats (N/C)
*UKIP - 3 seats (+3)

Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes - 50.9% [+3.2]
No - 49.1% [-3.2]

The independence movement have picked up 8.7% of No voters since September, while the pro-union movement have picked up just 2.5% of Yes voters. Those who didn't vote split 51.6% to No; 48.4% to Yes.

If there was to be another referendum on Scottish independence when, if at all, do you think this referendum should take place?
Within the next 2 years - 17.9%
In 2 - 5 years time - 22.5%
In 5 - 10 years time - 19.1%
In 10+ years time - 20.5%
Never - 20.1%

A pretty staggering 40.4% of Scots want another referendum within the next five years, while 59.5% want another one within ten years - the issue doesn't seem to have gone away. 80.0% of people believe there should be a second referendum at some point, which is similar to the number of people who wanted a referendum before the 2014 one was announced.

34.8% of Yes voters want another referendum within the next two years, while 71.7% want a second vote within the next five years. No voters are less likely to want another referendum, with only 29.7% backing another referendum within the next ten years.

Fieldwork: 12-17 March

[Clyde1998]

I think they have a good system in Germany - two nights of debates - one between the leaders of the CDU and SPD and one between leaders of the Greens, FDP and Linke (and maybe now AfD).

Having seven people on staqe at once is NOT a debate - its just noise pollution.

STV did something similar for the 2007 Scottish Election. They had the parties with ten or more seats (Labour, SNP, Lib Dems, Conservatives) in separate debates from the parties with less than ten seats (Greens, Socialists, Solidarity).

The only issue with it was that the smaller parties were wiped out, apart from the Greens who lost five of their seven seats - probably as much more people watched the debates between the larger parties than the smaller parties.

[Clyde1998]

Just watched the Sky/Channel Four Q&A session thing. I don't think Cameron or Miliband performed too well, too be honest.

Hopefully next week's BBC debate with the seven parties will be better...

[Clyde1998]

The Scottish Greens have announced their manifesto today

http://www.scottishgreens.org.uk/news/greens-launch-manifesto-an-economy-for-the-people/

Includes supports for £10 minimum wage, the renationalisation of railways and more powers to be transferred to Scotland.

[Clyde1998]

The Scottish Greens have announced their manifesto today

http://www.scottishgreens.org.uk/news/greens-launch-manifesto-an-economy-for-the-people/

Includes supports for £10 minimum wage, the renationalisation of railways and more powers to be transferred to Scotland.

What's the relationship between the SNP and the Scots Greens like? Surely they can't be happy about this Green E&W/Plaid/SNP entente.

The Greens weren't too happy that the SNP wouldn't agree to a "Pro-independence alliance" for this election - but they could understand it. The SNP would only agree if those elected in the alliance took their whip.

Generally, however, the relationship between the SNP and Scottish Greens is quite good. Especially since Sturgeon has taken over as SNP leader - she's been more open to collaboration between parties than Salmond.

Patrick Harvie (Scots Greens leader) said that he enjoyed working with Sturgeon during the referendum campaign, also.