Mr. Smith
MormDem
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 33,372
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« on: December 28, 2016, 10:34:55 PM » |
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« edited: December 28, 2016, 10:38:49 PM by L.D. Smith, Nobody's Favorite Since 2014 »
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He might very well be right (though not for the right reasons).
Obama's approvals were artificially high because he got lame-ducked in 2014 and Hillary became the new chew-toy.
Without her, the focus would've stayed on him, and while I think he would've been far better at actually attacking and keeping Trump down, I also believe Congress would've been more giddy about endorsing Trump. #NeverTrump would've lacked any power of any sort at all. If there's one thing McConnell can do, it's discredit Obama.
And for all people scream, "muh minority turnout would be higher", I'm also certain that white turnout would've been higher too, and the suburbs would've been even more set against him.
So while Michigan and Pennsylvania would've stayed, not improbable for Ohio, Wisconsin [courtesy of Scott Walker], New Hampshire, Iowa, and Maine (except for CD-1) to flip and give a narrower EV win to Trump, while the PV margin likely would've stayed the same.
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