Most Democratic Gerrymander possible (user search)
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  Most Democratic Gerrymander possible (search mode)
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Author Topic: Most Democratic Gerrymander possible  (Read 2199 times)
Asian Nazi
d32123
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Posts: 2,523
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« on: January 11, 2016, 12:58:33 PM »

There are plenty of white Republicans in California (CA whites are a few points more Republican than WA and OR, for example, and I think Romney actually won the CA white vote in 2012), especially in the interior and southern portion of the state.  But they're now a decided minority against the white liberals + minorities Dem coalition.  In fact, I'd attribute the GOP's decline in the state almost entirely to the increasing Hispanic vote.  It doesn't help that the CA GOP shot themselves in the foot with things like Prop 187 and the Schwarzenegger disaster either.
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Asian Nazi
d32123
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,523
China


« Reply #1 on: January 11, 2016, 02:02:37 PM »

There is a natural tendency over the long haul for parties to tend to be competitive in each state, as the party with the majority goes as far as it can to enact its agenda, even if it means losing votes, but only so long as there still is a majority of some sort for them. Surplus votes are spent on getting things a party wants done, in other words.

This is how it should work in theory.  In practice, we find evidence to be lacking, especially below the national level.  American history is full of states with extended periods of one party rule and more often than not it's difficult for state parties to disassociate with the national brand and develop their own.  The CA GOP has been particularly bad at disassociating with the national GOP (and this is at least as much do to Californian political geography as it is to do with the decisions of individual party leaders).  At some point in the future we might see a national party alignment which puts California in the GOP column, but until that point the state Republican party will be in a losing position, with the diminishing exceptions of occasional perfect storm gubernatorial elections.
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Asian Nazi
d32123
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Posts: 2,523
China


« Reply #2 on: January 11, 2016, 02:18:02 PM »

Also, as an Asian American, I'd reject the idea that it's our secularism that turns us off from the GOP.  There are a sh**t ton of Evangelical Asians, especially in diaspora populations.  In Canada and Australia, for example, conservative parties have been very successful in winning over East Asian voters on the basis of cultural issues.  Even in the United States, many older Asians and particular ethnic groups (such as Vietnamese) still vote GOP, because of religious and cultural reasons as well as anti-communism.  What turns younger Asians away from the GOP is our relative financial insecurity.  While Asians tend to have higher incomes on average, we still lag well behind whites in terms of wealth.  We were hit particularly hard by the Great Recession.  And financial insecurity + increasing adoption of liberal values makes us an obvious Democrat demographic.  Barring a major partisan realignment, we're going to just keep trending Democrat as older Asians die off and turnout rates increase.
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Asian Nazi
d32123
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,523
China


« Reply #3 on: January 11, 2016, 03:33:37 PM »

That's interesting. Thanks. But did Asian wealth take more of a hit than white wealth? The thing is, in this country, is outside the top decile or so, nobody in America has much wealth. It's just shockingly low.

Sbane should weigh in here perhaps. He has his own thoughts on this, and is Asian too, and grew up in CA. One thing out there either way is affirmative action and its impact, or potential impact in the future, on Asians in college admissions. I wonder if the Pubs have gotten around to using that to appeal to Asians? Granted, more Asians, might mean fewer whites. Poor Pubs. What are they going to do now?

Well, idk about affirmative action, but there are any number of wedge tactics that the GOP could use to pull Asians away from African Americans.  They'd hardly need to manufacture animosity --- CA in particular has been an epicenter of antagonism between black and Asian communities.  I think the GOP's best case scenario would be that assimilation follows the historical model, i.e. Asians and Latinos become like the Irish, Italians, Germans, Jews etc. and become more friendly to the Republicans as they assimilate, move up the socioeconomic ladder, and start associating more politically with WASPs than the black underclass.  There are signs that this is happening already.  Outmarriage is one of the top signs of assimilation, and both Asians and Latinos outmarry at much higher rates than white ethnics did historically.  At the same time, social mobility is definitely not as it once was.  As you mentioned, the white middle class has been taking a beating lately too, so I'm not sure how much models from the historically mobile, high-growth American economy can be used for the stagnant, low growth era we live in.
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