2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Bootes Void]

The GCB will probably be R+4 or R+5, then.

This is an R poll btw, the republicans could be ahead by then buts it no guarantee to predict where things would go. For instance republicans closed the GCB during mid 2018 onwards

[Bootes Void]

Has anyone else noticed that the Democrats have been doing pretty well in generic ballot polling recently? On January 5, 2018, the Dems were up 11 points on the RCP aggregate. The GOP is up by 1.6 right now. 538 had the Democrats up 10, but the Republicans are up by only 0.5 at the moment. The midterms are obviously still going to swing R, but it's probably not going to be some 2010 or 2014 redux like some doomers on here are heralding.

That could be a good point but there is a possibility that republicans will overperform their current polling or gain in their polling lead as the year goes on

[Bootes Void]

The most comparable generic ballots so far are 2002 (unprecedented incumbent victory) or 2014 (humiliating incumbent defeat).
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1564411069526843398?s=21&t=4q2kvDU...

Stunning how so many GOP pundits thought in 2006 the GOP still could keep the house cause those numbers look apocalyptic. The 2006 poll numbers always seem stunning, like how did we poll that bad going into the midtmers

It could be the same logic said back in 2017 where most pundits thought that redistricting, geography and fundraising  ould keep the republicans despite being in a bad political environment. There is also the fact that the 2002 midterms was just a few years ago and some false believe about some sort in the war on terror or Iraq happening before the elections