2023 Thailand general election - May 14th

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

At the moment, how likely is Prayut returning to another term?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

More bad news for  Prayut, it seems.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Latest Suan Dusit poll - PT loses some ground to MFP  (change from March poll)

PT       41.37  (-4.79)
MFP     19.32  (+3.89)
BJT       9.55  (-1.57)
UTN      8.48 (-0.25)
PPP      7.49   (-0.22)
DP       7.30   (+0.19)

MFP is strong with the youth vote with PT dominating everywhere else.
PT is way ahead in all regions except for the Deep South where DP is ahead and PF MFP BJT and UTN are in a 4-way battle for second.

Looks like PT is set to sweep all FPTP seats everywhere except for the Deep South

With these numbers, it might be possible for PT to win even without military senator support?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So, what exactly is Move Forward?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Credit to Reddit user ikkue for this one
I found the r/Thailand thread for this and found it there.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If the election result has MFP with massive overperformance we might have a crisis on our hands.  The military will not allow MFP anywhere near the government.  The military might accept PT with some conditions but MFP is totally off the table for them.

Separate soldiers from politics

Adjust the structure so the military is under a civil government.

Abolish the special mechanisms (council of defence, military court, ISOC).

Transparent military with accountability

Reduce secret budgets, publicly disclose information, appoint a military inspector, give military land back to the people, give military businesses back to the government.

Modern military, up-to-date with the world

Reduce military size by 30–40%.

Reduce the number of generals.

Abolish compulsory military service, build career soldiers.

Yes, I'd like 1 coup please, with extra coup. Oh, this comes with the extra fast coup? Excellent.

-Pita, probably

(u/RedgrenCrumbholt)
I laughed at this...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The numbers so far which are tiny either mean a MFP sweep or they have an urban bias which for sure will favor MFP.  As more rural parts of mixed seats come in PT will overtake MFP.  But pure urban areas are for sure now going to MFP.

The poor Thailand economic performance during and after COVID-19 is now showing up in the voting numbers for the urban vote to take a risk on something like MFP.

It'll be kind of hilarious to see PT suddenly become an establishment darling just because ultra-radical MFP spooks them that much.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

district leads

MFP        99
PT          60
BJT         34
DP          16
PPP         18
UTN        10
CP            7

As more rural votes start to come in PT and BJT make gains.  The MFP winning margins in Bangkok are massive

Is it possible there are a lot of unemployed or under-employed youth in Bangkok impacting these results?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

district leads

MFP        99
PT          60
BJT         34
DP          16
PPP         18
UTN        10
CP            7

As more rural votes start to come in PT and BJT make gains.  The MFP winning margins in Bangkok are massive

Is it possible there are a lot of unemployed or under-employed youth in Bangkok impacting these results?

It seems PT is doing way worse than polling suggested in Bangkok so this seems more about the anti-military bloc vote deciding to consolidate around MFP there.  Really bad news for PT in other urban and suburban areas elsewhere.

This makes me wonder what the results would look like in Chiang Mai. Is MFP winning there too?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Bangkok-25 and Bangkok-15 are the only seats in the capital that MFP is not leading in currently (PTP is leading there). That is 2 of 33.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

district leads

MFP        99
PT          60
BJT         34
DP          16
PPP         18
UTN        10
CP            7

As more rural votes start to come in PT and BJT make gains.  The MFP winning margins in Bangkok are massive

Is it possible there are a lot of unemployed or under-employed youth in Bangkok impacting these results?

Thai zoomers are simply very liberal and anti military. They speak good English, are immersed in Western culture and have a very different vision for the country than their parents.

If so, the established interests of the country might need to weigh the MFP carefully. A wholesale ban on the party and all sorts of usual suppression mechanisms might only backfire...especially if that is done via a military coup.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

MFP currently sweeping all three seats in Phuket. It's not winning many seats in Southern Thailand. The closest current MFP lead seats are located all the way in Surat Thani about 120 miles away.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

PTP dominating in Nakhon Ratchasima so far, leading in 12 of 16 seats. I wonder if there's local considerations at play or this is just an early-in-the-count thing.