NH-Gov 2024: If You Knew Sununu Like I Knew Sununu

[Brother Jonathan]

Lean R with Ayotte, Safe D with anyone else.

I still think Ayotte doesn't know how to deal with Trump. Her equivocation cost her re-election in 2016 and she is still going to (likely) have to deal with him on the top of the ticket. If she thinks running for state rather than federal office is going to totally remove that issue I think she is at best naive. For that reason, among others, I'm not very bullish on her chances. I'm interested to see what approach she takes.

She still has a better shot than Edelblut, though, even accounting for that issue.

[BigZuck08]

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/24/kelly-ayotte-new-hampshire-governor-00107822#:~:text=Former%20Sen.%20Kelly%20Ayotte%20launched,Ayotte%20said%20in%20a%20statement.

Ayotte has just announced her bid for governor today.

[Spectator]

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/24/kelly-ayotte-new-hampshire-governor-00107822#:~:text=Former%20Sen.%20Kelly%20Ayotte%20launched,Ayotte%20said%20in%20a%20statement.

Ayotte has just announced her bid for governor today.

Dunno if running against Massachusetts is a good strategy given its being #1 in many quality of life metrics. If she’s playing on tax fears, all Craig needs to really do is say she won’t implement any state income tax and that completely destroys that angle of attack.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ayotte is anti choice and Craig is pro choice that's why Maggie Hassan narrowly beat her and this isn't FL where it votes for Rs based on Cuban Embargo and no state income tax and Scott is only up 4 this state votes D for Prez and they know Biden wants to increase Fed taxes he ran with Obama in 2008/12

[Morning in Atlas]

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/24/kelly-ayotte-new-hampshire-governor-00107822#:~:text=Former%20Sen.%20Kelly%20Ayotte%20launched,Ayotte%20said%20in%20a%20statement.

Ayotte has just announced her bid for governor today.

Dunno if running against Massachusetts is a good strategy given its being #1 in many quality of life metrics. If she’s playing on tax fears, all Craig needs to really do is say she won’t implement any state income tax and that completely destroys that angle of attack.

Not being from the legislature helps this compared to, say, Feltes or Sherman.

To be fair, the NHDP has started to effectively countermessage by saying the GOP is the party of higher property taxes. Volinsky nearly won the primary (and had he announced earlier would have!) in 2020 off this message.

[Holmes]

Lean R with Ayotte, Safe D with anyone else.

Her last election was 8 years ago, which she lost, she's sharing a ticket with Trump (which she did in that same election she lost), she's anti-abortion, and her opening message is "we're becoming Massachusetts!"

Absolutely not lean R with her.

[Vosem]

Lean R with Ayotte, Safe D with anyone else.

Her last election was 8 years ago, which she lost, she's sharing a ticket with Trump (which she did in that same election she lost), she's anti-abortion, and her opening message is "we're becoming Massachusetts!"

Absolutely not lean R with her.

Hasn't this been the opening NHGOP message in every statewide election ever, going back to like the 1920s? Anyway, it's hard for me to tell who would be favored between Ayotte and Edelblut, and I can see the argument either way. Ayotte was an enormous Trump opponent in the 2016 election, going all the way to the general, but afterwards became much closer to his administration, particularly its judicial strategy, and would have significant national ties through FedSoc. Edelblut also has ties to the general conservative school-reform anti-woke network; both are sort of originally moderate politicians who have moved right with time. I don't know who would have more support on the ground, but my guess is Edelblut.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/24/kelly-ayotte-new-hampshire-governor-00107822#:~:text=Former%20Sen.%20Kelly%20Ayotte%20launched,Ayotte%20said%20in%20a%20statement.

Ayotte has just announced her bid for governor today.

Dunno if running against Massachusetts is a good strategy given its being #1 in many quality of life metrics. If she’s playing on tax fears, all Craig needs to really do is say she won’t implement any state income tax and that completely destroys that angle of attack.

More than in most states, the NHGOP is substantially made up of conservative migrants who wanted to live in a less liberal state, and especially especially conservative migrants from Massachusetts who hate Massachusetts. (And who often still commute to jobs in Massachusetts, but stereotypically live across the state border because they hate Massachusetts so much.) This is, like, the lynchpin of the coalition.

(Note that, per 2020s estimates, Massachusetts is losing population, and New Hampshire is gaining. So I'm not sure "Massachusetts is great actually" would be a great message for NH Democrats. Tying Edelblut or Ayotte to Trump might be better, since NH is actually a state where he became much less popular over the course of his administration.)

[Pollster]

Ayotte will not win this race but her candidacy could force the DGA to divert resources from North Carolina to the relatively expensive Boston media market.

Wait you really think so? Ayotte is a hardliner on abortion, I don't see how this candidacy isn't DOA in the general.

Yeah, the Republican floor is still quite high here even if the state is decisively blue, and Ayotte will have the money to make other issues salient even if abortion is a large hurdle for her.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The obsession certain types have with Ayotte is pretty hilarious, especially since this notion she's a "moderate" when she's really just a generic R with a vagina is fueling it.

I remember Kingpoleon brought up some scenario that involved a Tim Scott campaign with Ayotte as his running mate because of course Scott would pick some random former Senator who lost re-election because...reasons. It was a surreal post in general, also consisted of things like that Bernie Sanders (the D nominee in the scenario) would have incredibly specific campaign planks like closing 1 in every 8 charter schools in the US.

[NewYorkExpress]

The obsession certain types have with Ayotte is pretty hilarious, especially since this notion she's a "moderate" when she's really just a generic R with a vagina is fueling it.

I remember Kingpoleon brought up some scenario that involved a Tim Scott campaign with Ayotte as his running mate because of course Scott would pick some random former Senator who lost re-election because...reasons. It was a surreal post in general, also consisted of things like that Bernie Sanders (the D nominee in the scenario) would have incredibly specific campaign planks like closing 1 in every 8 charter schools in the US.

Ayotte would be a good running mate for Trump...but since Trump values loyalty to him, and that's not something Ayotte's ever been, he's never going to pick her.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The obsession certain types have with Ayotte is pretty hilarious, especially since this notion she's a "moderate" when she's really just a generic R with a vagina is fueling it.

I remember Kingpoleon brought up some scenario that involved a Tim Scott campaign with Ayotte as his running mate because of course Scott would pick some random former Senator who lost re-election because...reasons. It was a surreal post in general, also consisted of things like that Bernie Sanders (the D nominee in the scenario) would have incredibly specific campaign planks like closing 1 in every 8 charter schools in the US.

Ayotte would be a good running mate for Trump...but since Trump values loyalty to him, and that's not something Ayotte's ever been, he's never going to pick her.

What exactly would make her a good running mate?

I can sort of see why people pre-2017 saw her as a "rising star" of sorts, she's a pro-life woman who got elected in a state that's voted against their presidential candidates for quite awhile. But that really should just serve as an example of why there's way more to being a good candidate than simple box checking.

[NewYorkExpress]

The obsession certain types have with Ayotte is pretty hilarious, especially since this notion she's a "moderate" when she's really just a generic R with a vagina is fueling it.

I remember Kingpoleon brought up some scenario that involved a Tim Scott campaign with Ayotte as his running mate because of course Scott would pick some random former Senator who lost re-election because...reasons. It was a surreal post in general, also consisted of things like that Bernie Sanders (the D nominee in the scenario) would have incredibly specific campaign planks like closing 1 in every 8 charter schools in the US.

Ayotte would be a good running mate for Trump...but since Trump values loyalty to him, and that's not something Ayotte's ever been, he's never going to pick her.

What exactly would make her a good running mate?

I can sort of see why people pre-2017 saw her as a "rising star" of sorts, she's a pro-life woman who got elected in a state that's voted against their presidential candidates for quite awhile. But that really should just serve as an example of why there's way more to being a good candidate than simple box checking.

She's female, relatively moderate, and she won't overshadow Trump, which is probably something he's looking for (and why someone like Marjorie Taylor Greene, Lauren Boebert or Kari Lake won't be chosen).

[CityofSinners]

I really don't get the hype about Ayotte. She last won an election 13 years ago and her social conservatism will cost her.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

The obsession certain types have with Ayotte is pretty hilarious, especially since this notion she's a "moderate" when she's really just a generic R with a vagina is fueling it.

I remember Kingpoleon brought up some scenario that involved a Tim Scott campaign with Ayotte as his running mate because of course Scott would pick some random former Senator who lost re-election because...reasons. It was a surreal post in general, also consisted of things like that Bernie Sanders (the D nominee in the scenario) would have incredibly specific campaign planks like closing 1 in every 8 charter schools in the US.

Ayotte had a very moderate voting record in the Senate, at least compared to her colleagues. I'm sure privately her positions are much further right though.

[Atlas Force]

The obsession certain types have with Ayotte is pretty hilarious, especially since this notion she's a "moderate" when she's really just a generic R with a vagina is fueling it.

I remember Kingpoleon brought up some scenario that involved a Tim Scott campaign with Ayotte as his running mate because of course Scott would pick some random former Senator who lost re-election because...reasons. It was a surreal post in general, also consisted of things like that Bernie Sanders (the D nominee in the scenario) would have incredibly specific campaign planks like closing 1 in every 8 charter schools in the US.

The post for anyone who's curious:

317: Timothy Scott/Kelly Ayotte - 50.6%
221: Bernie Sanders/Elizabeth Warren - 43.8%
John Monds/Cliff Hydra - 3.5%
Others - 2.1%

Scott runs to:
- Balance the budget
- Instate revenue-neutral universal healthcare
- Cut taxes on the bottom five income brackets by 3-6%
- Cut the corporate rates to 11%-19%-27%-33%-35%-27%, with the second and third top bracket merged into the 35% range, and the fourth and fifth merged into the 33% range
- Instate a federal sales tax of 17.5%
- Ban abortions after 32 weeks, with exceptions for life and health of the mother
- Double NASA spending
- Raise the minimum wage to $9.75 by 2025
- Raise Social Security/Medicare eligibility to 70 by 2031

Sanders runs to:
- Single-payer healthcare
- Reduce military spending by 15%
- Raise all welfare spending by 20%
- $14.75 minimum wage by 2027
- Put immigration limits at 85% of Obama-era limits
- Legalize marijuana
- Close one in eight charter schools
- Raise the number of public schools by 10% in 2022, and by 1.5% every year after

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The obsession certain types have with Ayotte is pretty hilarious, especially since this notion she's a "moderate" when she's really just a generic R with a vagina is fueling it.

I remember Kingpoleon brought up some scenario that involved a Tim Scott campaign with Ayotte as his running mate because of course Scott would pick some random former Senator who lost re-election because...reasons. It was a surreal post in general, also consisted of things like that Bernie Sanders (the D nominee in the scenario) would have incredibly specific campaign planks like closing 1 in every 8 charter schools in the US.

The post for anyone who's curious:

317: Timothy Scott/Kelly Ayotte - 50.6%
221: Bernie Sanders/Elizabeth Warren - 43.8%
John Monds/Cliff Hydra - 3.5%
Others - 2.1%

Scott runs to:
- Balance the budget
- Instate revenue-neutral universal healthcare
- Cut taxes on the bottom five income brackets by 3-6%
- Cut the corporate rates to 11%-19%-27%-33%-35%-27%, with the second and third top bracket merged into the 35% range, and the fourth and fifth merged into the 33% range
- Instate a federal sales tax of 17.5%
- Ban abortions after 32 weeks, with exceptions for life and health of the mother
- Double NASA spending
- Raise the minimum wage to $9.75 by 2025
- Raise Social Security/Medicare eligibility to 70 by 2031

Sanders runs to:
- Single-payer healthcare
- Reduce military spending by 15%
- Raise all welfare spending by 20%
- $14.75 minimum wage by 2027
- Put immigration limits at 85% of Obama-era limits
- Legalize marijuana
- Close one in eight charter schools
- Raise the number of public schools by 10% in 2022, and by 1.5% every year after

That's it!

What a bizarre set of platforms. The public school increase proposal might be even more weird as are Scott's corporate tax rates...and just randomly wanting to double NASA spending, lol. And who the hell are those guys on that third place ticket?

[Duke of York]

I really don't get the hype about Ayotte. She last won an election 13 years ago and her social conservatism will cost her.

I have doubts she even gets the nomination.

[Morning in Atlas]

I really don't get the hype about Ayotte. She last won an election 13 years ago and her social conservatism will cost her.

There is none. She's the Conor Lamb of the GOP - a grossly overrated campaigner who is largely coasting off one good election performance.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ayotte's a decent candidate, but she certainly won't make the race Lean R lol. She has a tendency to alienate and piss off all parts of the ideological spectrum, as was evident during her time as a Senator, and Craig is pretty strong. The race is a Tossup if it's between those two, but I'd give Craig the edge.

I really don't get the hype about Ayotte. She last won an election 13 years ago and her social conservatism will cost her.

Also, this. Her record on abortion, especially, is going to weigh her down.

[Senator Incitatus]

Not reading every word of the above but “We’re becoming Massachusetts!” worked a lot better when people didn’t want to be Massachusetts.

[SWE]

Lean D for now. Ayotte is a better than replacement level candidate, but NH still does lean blue, she'll be sharing a ballot with Trump, and her last electoral victory was 13 years ago, in an era where ticket splitting was less common and her opposition to abortion was much less of a liability. NH is prone to wild swings and ticket splitting so you never know, but I'd start her out as a slight underdog.

[wbrocks67]

LMAO she is not winning a general election. It's giving Kelly Loeffler.

https://twitter.com/KellyAyotte/status/1684177895957184512

[Holmes]

Kelly Ayotte stop mentioning Massachusetts challenge - failed

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Wasn’t there a time people wanted Ayotte to be president?

[Roronoa D. Law]

So her proposal is to build a wall with?

Check notes....

Massachusetts