Fmr. Gov. NickG
NickG
Junior Chimp
Posts: 8,206
Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -3.49
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« on: October 25, 2005, 01:22:31 PM » |
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« edited: October 25, 2005, 01:55:27 PM by Fmr. Gov. NickG »
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Gonzales has done a lot of good polling in Maryland in the past few cycles.
This is great news for Duncan, who is already tied with Ehrlich despite a huge name recognition gap. I'm disappointed they didn't poll the primary though.
If you look at the cross-tabs, it's interesting that reason O'Malley does better than Duncan is mostly due to a difference in white support...their numbers among blacks are virtually identical. This despite the fact that O'Malley is mayor of an overwhelmingly black city, while Duncan is Executive of a mostly white country.
Regional differences:
Baltimore City: O'Malley +48, Duncan +40 (although an additional 10% are undecided in the Duncan race...I expect most of these undecideds to go Dem in the end).
Baltimore Suburbs: O'Malley -7, Duncan -19
Washington Suburbs: O'Malley +24, Duncan +35
Southern Maryland: O'Malley -5, Duncan -25
Western Maryland: O'Malley -21, Duncan -29
With the exception of Southern Maryland (which I think is a pure name recognition effect), O'Malley and Duncan seem pretty even in terms of electibility, with O'Malley advantage in the Baltimore burbs offset by Duncan's advantage in the DC burbs.
Yet the press came out with a flurry of stories about O'Malley's perceived electibility advantage on the day of Duncan's announcement. This is based much more on historical stereotypes than present reality. No one from Montgomery has won a statewide race in 90 years.
But next year, this streak ends.
And no, I'm not referring to Allan Lichtman.
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