Florida 2004

[Arbitrage1980]

Bush barely won Florida in 2000, but in 2004 he won by a decisive 5%, which is impressive given how tight Florida usually is. Even in 2008, Obama won it by just 2.8%.

Why did Bush do so well? My guess is that he crushed it with retired New Yorkers who were concerned about national security.

[Arbitrage1980]

Arguably, W should have won Florida in 2000 by a point or two; the DUI hurt him there the most. His two point improvement in Florida correlates with a 2.5 point win in the popular vote (a 3% increase from 2000 in margin).

That DUI story really ed over Bush. Before, he was leading by 2-4 points nationally. He would have won Oregon, New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Maine 02. Also, the networks called Florida prematurely for Gore, and lot of Republican voters in the panhandle stayed home.