The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 3

[Mr. Morden]

New AP story on the 2020 race here:

http://www.startribune.com/2020-democratic-primary-set-to-intensify/504306232/

A few tidbits:

-Booker's campaign HQ will be in Newark.
-Booker, Gillibrand, and Harris announcements all thought to be fairly imminent ("in the coming weeks").
-Neither O'Rourke nor Sanders plan to announce anything until February at the earliest.
-Hickenlooper, despite doing some hiring and organization, reportedly won't launch until March.
-Unlike the others, Biden isn't currently doing anything to build his team.  He's still in the stage of "huddling with aides while he moves closer to a decision":

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[Shadows]

Means of Production, the filmmaking cooperative that created the viral campaign video that propelled Ocasio-Cortez’s House campaign, is in talks with the Sanders team about a major role in 2020. And two people who powered Sanders’ record-breaking small-dollar fundraising operation in 2016 have agreed to join a subsequent presidential bid if it materializes, according to a Sanders campaign aide: Tim Tagaris and Robin Curran, his digital fundraising director and digital production director in 2016, respectively. The aide said another pair that have helped Sanders build a digital media juggernaut out of his Senate office — media producer Armand Aviram and digital director Georgia Parke — are likely to be part of his 2020 team, too.

Burton said the Detroit-based team would likely create “big, beautiful ads” and “drumbeat content” for Sanders if it was brought on for 2020. "We have certainly been talking with his team," she said, adding that if Sanders runs, "He's the only candidate we would work for.” This week, Sanders’ Senate team streamed his rebuttal to President Trump’s Oval Office address on Facebook, Twitter and YouTube, which went on to garner more than 1.1 million views. In comparison, former Rep. O’Rourke, who is also considering a presidential bid, received almost 200,000 views when he filmed himself on Facebook live for more than an-hour-and-a-half to refute Trump; a short clip of the video got another 480,000 views on Twitter.

CrowdTangle data recently compiled by a person close to the Sanders campaign also underscores his social media muscle compared to other presidential hopefuls: Sanders’ videos had nearly 1.5 billion views in 2017 and 2018 on Facebook — almost three times more than all other potential 2020 Democratic candidates’ videos combined, according to the report. On Saturday, the People for Bernie Sanders hosted more than 400 house parties throughout the country to push Sanders to run in 2020. Winnie Wong, a co-founder of the group, said the events showed that outside pro-Sanders organizations also have extensive social media power that can be put to use in a presidential election.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/14/bernie-sanders-campaign-2020-election-1098795

Politico story - Sanders' building up a strong digital team as outside Bernie supporting groups host 400 House parties urging Sanders to run !

[Grassroots]

Means of Production, the filmmaking cooperative that created the viral campaign video that propelled Ocasio-Cortez’s House campaign, is in talks with the Sanders team about a major role in 2020. And two people who powered Sanders’ record-breaking small-dollar fundraising operation in 2016 have agreed to join a subsequent presidential bid if it materializes, according to a Sanders campaign aide: Tim Tagaris and Robin Curran, his digital fundraising director and digital production director in 2016, respectively. The aide said another pair that have helped Sanders build a digital media juggernaut out of his Senate office — media producer Armand Aviram and digital director Georgia Parke — are likely to be part of his 2020 team, too.

Burton said the Detroit-based team would likely create “big, beautiful ads” and “drumbeat content” for Sanders if it was brought on for 2020. "We have certainly been talking with his team," she said, adding that if Sanders runs, "He's the only candidate we would work for.” This week, Sanders’ Senate team streamed his rebuttal to President Trump’s Oval Office address on Facebook, Twitter and YouTube, which went on to garner more than 1.1 million views. In comparison, former Rep. O’Rourke, who is also considering a presidential bid, received almost 200,000 views when he filmed himself on Facebook live for more than an-hour-and-a-half to refute Trump; a short clip of the video got another 480,000 views on Twitter.

CrowdTangle data recently compiled by a person close to the Sanders campaign also underscores his social media muscle compared to other presidential hopefuls: Sanders’ videos had nearly 1.5 billion views in 2017 and 2018 on Facebook — almost three times more than all other potential 2020 Democratic candidates’ videos combined, according to the report. On Saturday, the People for Bernie Sanders hosted more than 400 house parties throughout the country to push Sanders to run in 2020. Winnie Wong, a co-founder of the group, said the events showed that outside pro-Sanders organizations also have extensive social media power that can be put to use in a presidential election.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/14/bernie-sanders-campaign-2020-election-1098795

Politico story - Sanders' building up a strong digital team as outside Bernie supporting groups host 400 House parties urging Sanders to run !

"Means of production". It's like they're not even trying to hide the obvious socialism.

[Sir Mohamed]

News on Biden.

Via Joe

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[Mr. Morden]

News on Biden.

Via Joe

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That's just a re-reporting of the Axios story linked here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=303677.msg6622887#msg6622887

Which again, is a bit of a muddle, because it sounds authoritatively like he's leaning in towards a run, but then ends with "We're told authoritatively that Biden hasn't decided."

[Cold War Liberal]

"Means of production". It's like they're not even trying to hide the obvious socialism.

Well, yeah, typically when you describe yourself as a democratic socialist you're not going to shy away from being called socialist...

[Mr. Morden]

Booker and Gillibrand are both apparently losing weight to prepare for their campaigns:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/14/nyregion/cory-booker-gillibrand-weight-loss-2020.html

[Grassroots]

"Means of production". It's like they're not even trying to hide the obvious socialism.

Well, yeah, typically when you describe yourself as a democratic socialist you're not going to shy away from being called socialist...

If they weren't shying away from being called socialists they wouldn't call themselves "democratic" socialists.

[ON Progressive]

"Means of production". It's like they're not even trying to hide the obvious socialism.

Well, yeah, typically when you describe yourself as a democratic socialist you're not going to shy away from being called socialist...

If they weren't shying away from being called socialists they wouldn't call themselves "democratic" socialists.

Are you being deliberately braindead and obtuse? Democratic socialists call themselves socialists without shying away from it.

If they wanted to shy away from it, they’d call themselves social democrats or something.

[Grassroots]

"Means of production". It's like they're not even trying to hide the obvious socialism.

Well, yeah, typically when you describe yourself as a democratic socialist you're not going to shy away from being called socialist...

If they weren't shying away from being called socialists they wouldn't call themselves "democratic" socialists.

Are you being deliberately braindead and obtuse? Democratic socialists call themselves socialists without shying away from it.

If they wanted to shy away from it, they’d call themselves social democrats or something.

Lol what do you mean. If they wanted to be called socialists they would call themselves socialists. The fact that they have to add democratic at the end shows how cautious they are.

[President Johnson]

Booker and Gillibrand are both apparently losing weight to prepare for their campaigns:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/14/nyregion/cory-booker-gillibrand-weight-loss-2020.html

Didn't work for Christie although he had other issues.

[Big Abraham]

"Means of production". It's like they're not even trying to hide the obvious socialism.

Well, yeah, typically when you describe yourself as a democratic socialist you're not going to shy away from being called socialist...

If they weren't shying away from being called socialists they wouldn't call themselves "democratic" socialists.

Are you being deliberately braindead and obtuse? Democratic socialists call themselves socialists without shying away from it.

If they wanted to shy away from it, they’d call themselves social democrats or something.

Lol what do you mean. If they wanted to be called socialists they would call themselves socialists. The fact that they have to add democratic at the end shows how cautious they are.

That's because it's necessary to distinguish between the various forms of state or authoritarian socialism and decentralised economic models. Not that it matters anyway, because no one in the Democratic Party is an actual socialist and very few people calling themselves 'socialist', democratic or otherwise, are anything other than mildly social democratic.

[Cold War Liberal]

"Means of production". It's like they're not even trying to hide the obvious socialism.

Well, yeah, typically when you describe yourself as a democratic socialist you're not going to shy away from being called socialist...

If they weren't shying away from being called socialists they wouldn't call themselves "democratic" socialists.

Are you being deliberately braindead and obtuse? Democratic socialists call themselves socialists without shying away from it.

If they wanted to shy away from it, they’d call themselves social democrats or something.

Lol what do you mean. If they wanted to be called socialists they would call themselves socialists. The fact that they have to add democratic at the end shows how cautious they are.

Or maybe the world is nuanced, there are more than one kind of socialism, and Sanders et al are advocating for their kind of socialism which is different from other kinds.

[Skye]

https://twitter.com/jmsummers/status/1084913196195086338

[gottsu]

I got information from someone (claims to be close to Ohio Democratic Party and DNC) that Sherrod Brown would have guaranteed VP slot to somebody who will win D's primary.

Do you think this is real?

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

I got information from someone (claims to be close to Ohio Democratic Party and DNC) that Sherrod Brown would have guaranteed VP slot to somebody who will win D's primary.

Do you think this is real?

Do you mean that Brown worked out a deal with somebody that he'd be their VP? Obviously it's possible but there's no way of knowing.

[lfromnj]

why would any democrat pick brown as their VP and why would brown agree to be VP?

he  would be like 76 by 2028.

[Roll Roons]

Also bear in mind that Brown was a finalist to be Hillary's running mate, but she didn't go through with it because she knew that he'd be replaced in the Senate by a Republican. That was his only real negative, but it's a big one and it hasn't gone away.

[Joey1996]

I got information from someone (claims to be close to Ohio Democratic Party and DNC) that Sherrod Brown would have guaranteed VP slot to somebody who will win D's primary.

Do you think this is real?

If it is true it's probably Harris....

 or maybe it's Warren trying to avoid more progressives from joining the race

[Karpatsky]

Also bear in mind that Brown was a finalist to be Hillary's running mate, but she didn't go through with it because she knew that he'd be replaced in the Senate by a Republican. That was his only real negative, but it's a big one and it hasn't gone away.

This. A D who wants to have a chance of, y'know, doing things in office would be a fool to take Sherrod out of that seat for VP.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I got information from someone (claims to be close to Ohio Democratic Party and DNC) that Sherrod Brown would have guaranteed VP slot to somebody who will win D's primary.

Do you think this is real?

Makes sense, especially if the nominee is Kamala.

My only concern with this is that who could we possibly nominate to hold his Senate seat if he becomes Vice President Brown?

[The Mikado]

Hopefully no Democratic nominee would be stupid enough to cost us a Senate seat by elevating Brown to VP.

Hopefully.

(This is nothing against Sherrod Brown, whom I like and respect and hope stays in the Senate until he dies).

[Ye We Can]

Anyone else getting "Mayor Pete 2020" ads on Facebook for buttigieg?

I guess the page was up for awhile and is a draft thing but looks like a little of activity all of a sudden

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/jmsummers/status/1084913196195086338

I already mentioned this in the other thread, but she’s reportedly going to announce on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert tomorrow (Tuesday) night:

https://theweek.com/speedreads/817666/sen-kirsten-gillibrand-reportedly-announce-2020-run-colbert-week

In other news, de Blasio elaborates on his opening of the door to a presidential run:

https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/politics/2019/01/14/de-blasio-says-changing-world-is-why-he-is-not-ruling-out-a-2020-presidential-run

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[gottsu]

I got information from someone (claims to be close to Ohio Democratic Party and DNC) that Sherrod Brown would have guaranteed VP slot to somebody who will win D's primary.

Further informations on that are as follows:

- Brown would be also having a blank cheque whether to run or not in Democratic primaries, it has to be up to him only

- He was offered to be a horse of "Rust Belt Act" (whatever that name means) which is being reportedly in the works

- That guaranteed Brown's VP slot would not only limit to the winner of Dem primaries, but to any other Democratic contender, I was told that he would get also guaranteed VP offers from "everyone" contending Democratic primaries

- That case about losing a Senate seat when choosing Sherrod for VP in 2020 (because Ohio governor is a Republican) was of course being considered, but according to the informations I got the stakes in 2020 are higher than losing a Senate seat, because it goes about presidency, and such decision was taken concerning that problem

Have you ever heard of "Rust Belt Act"?