What if the vaccine(s) had been announced before the election?

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Does Trump end up winning? Are Democratic voters now the ones suspicious because they think it's a ploy to get Trump reelected?

[Pericles]

If the proper process was followed, Trump would get a slight boost, maybe worth 0.6% of the margin. However most of the Covid focus would still be on his failed response, especially since he wasn't doing anything to save lives even for a few months given the imminent vaccine.

If Trump somehow rushed the process against scientific recommendations just so he could get a political boost, he might still get a political benefit but vaccine hesitancy would be much higher.

[Skill and Chance]

If it was announced the day before the election, I'm not sure much would change.  If it was announced a month before the election (early enough not to look like a politically-driven decision and early enough to impact the bulk of early voting), it's almost surely enough to give Trump the EC win.

 


The PV would be Biden +2.5 or so, basically a repeat of 2016 with the earlier vaccine news playing the same role the Comey letter played then.

[Tekken_Guy]

If it was announced the day before the election, I'm not sure much would change.  If it was announced a month before the election (early enough not to look like a politically-driven decision and early enough to impact the bulk of early voting), it's almost surely enough to give Trump the EC win.

 


The PV would be Biden +2.5 or so, basically a repeat of 2016 with the earlier vaccine news playing the same role the Comey letter played then.

Do McSally or James win? Does the house flip?

[Skill and Chance]

If it was announced the day before the election, I'm not sure much would change.  If it was announced a month before the election (early enough not to look like a politically-driven decision and early enough to impact the bulk of early voting), it's almost surely enough to give Trump the EC win.

 


The PV would be Biden +2.5 or so, basically a repeat of 2016 with the earlier vaccine news playing the same role the Comey letter played then.

Do McSally or James win? Does the house flip?

McSally almost surely wins.  IDK about James because MI trended Biden IRL, but Perdue isn't even in a runoff, so the senate is an R lock either way.  Likely no on the House flipping, because I think all incumbents would benefit somewhat from the good news, but it could be even closer.   

[Pericles]

If it was announced the day before the election, I'm not sure much would change.  If it was announced a month before the election (early enough not to look like a politically-driven decision and early enough to impact the bulk of early voting), it's almost surely enough to give Trump the EC win.

 


The PV would be Biden +2.5 or so, basically a repeat of 2016 with the earlier vaccine news playing the same role the Comey letter played then.

Part of why the Comey letter had such a big effect was that there were lots of undecideds still left on the table in 2016. In 2020, there were so few undecideds, plus many millions of people had already voted, so it's hard for any one event to even be worth 0.6% of margin for Trump.

[Skill and Chance]

If it was announced the day before the election, I'm not sure much would change.  If it was announced a month before the election (early enough not to look like a politically-driven decision and early enough to impact the bulk of early voting), it's almost surely enough to give Trump the EC win.

 


The PV would be Biden +2.5 or so, basically a repeat of 2016 with the earlier vaccine news playing the same role the Comey letter played then.

Part of why the Comey letter had such a big effect was that there were lots of undecideds still left on the table in 2016. In 2020, there were so few undecideds, plus many millions of people had already voted, so it's hard for any one event to even be worth 0.6% of margin for Trump.

Well, there are many degrees of undecided.  If it happens early enough, the perception that COVID has been solved and is about to end could have a monumental impact.  My scenario assumes a vaccine announcement in early October, but imagine a scenario where the vaccine comes out during the summer and is widely available by October, COVID deaths have basically gone to 0 by election day and all restrictions have been lifted in most of the country.  Trump would easily win the PV in that world, probably by more than Bush 2004.  Yes, swing voters have declined over time, but most elections are close.  There's still enough people who don't make up their minds until late  to turn any presidential election into a 2008 or a reverse 2008 just based on the events that happen in the summer/fall of the election year.