A few updates on polls and so far it seems any impact for ethics commissioner report has not materialized at least not yet and may not at all. Numbers still a bit over the place, but some interesting pictures emerge.
Advanced Symbolics which tries to use AI to predict results (I am bit skeptical of this, but only NDP numbers seem high, others seem about right) has Liberals 147 seats, Conservatives 139 seats, NDP 31 seats, BQ 17 seats, Green party 3 seats, PPC 1 seat.
CBC predictions are different, but they were not updated since 5 days, so maybe there were some changes due to SNC-Lavalin affair last days.
So we are looking at a Liberal Minority or Liberals needs NDP to have a working majority? I don't know much about how the Canadians actually run their parliament. I know that Harper basically ran a Conservative minority government even though a clear majority of MPs were left-of-center between 2011 and 2015. I
even remember that in the aftermath of 2011, many commentators were saying that Liberals were becoming a centrist third party and that the Conservatives would be elected again, again, and again until the NDP, the new "main opposition", could maybe eventually win one but it could be decades before that happened, if ever.
I think if the election were to happen right now then you’d likely be looking at a
Small Liberal Majority. With the
Conservatives making gains and the
NDP struggling badly.
I don’t know a ton about different ridings but it seems like
Conservatives concentrate votes in areas where they crush everyone else with big majorities. Meanwhile in the marginals
Liberals consistently get just enough votes to take the seats.That’s why current CBC polls show
Conservatives ahead in the polls
(slightly) but
Liberals to land more seats
