British Local Elections, May 2024

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Perhaps their main miss was suggesting the independent Jamie Driscoll might win in the North East - this was put down to oversampling "highly engaged" and mostly online voters

Straightforward lack of SES weighting in that case, as I thought at the time.

[CumbrianLefty]

A hitherto respected psephological pundit actually did "LaBoUr NeEd A 14 pOiNt LeAd FoR a SiNgLe SeAt MaJoRiTy" on Sky News this morning. Seriously, what to say at this point?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

My opinion of Mr Beater, as we might call him, has generally not been positive various reasons, but this is a new low.

[CumbrianLefty]

Final net scores for the local elections according to the BBC - these will be from the last elections for the seats in question and so don't take account of byelection changes or defections in the interim:

Labour 1158 seats (up 186)
LibDems 522 (up 104)
Tories 515 (down 474)
Indies 228 (up 93)
Greens 181 (up 74)
Rate/Res 48 (up 11)

The advance Tory spin was 450-500 net losses - so their target was met for the third year running!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The advance Tory spin was 450-500 net losses - so their targets met for the third year running!

The only set of targets that are regularly hit in Rishi Sunak's Britain.

[TheTide]

A hitherto respected psephological pundit actually did "LaBoUr NeEd A 14 pOiNt LeAd FoR a SiNgLe SeAt MaJoRiTy" on Sky News this morning. Seriously, what to say at this point?

Are they intentionally trying to destroy their previously good (relatively speaking) reputation when it comes to politics and elections? On top of this there is also the now-infamous 'projection' based upon the projected national vote shares. I'm now wondering/fearing that their general election night programme will be fronted by Kay Burley...

[warandwar]

I'm worried about potential Cavaney Island radicalization. Cavaney Island terrorist cells car bombing People's Independence Party members. Barbed wire barricades, states of seige and so on.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The funniest thing about Canvey Island parochialism is that the paranoia that underlies so much of it even has a rational justification: we have learned from the archives that until the completion of the Thames Barrier in 1982, the official plan for the nightmare combination of a Spring Tide and an extreme storm surge from the North Sea sufficiently bad to threaten central London was to inundate Canvey Island in order to save the City and Westminster.

[Oryxslayer]

So with the last two P&Cs done, the set of elections are totally complete. Which means now is as good of a time as any to do a little analysis. IMO there are two decent ways of doing this with different data heading to different destinations. And neither is a universal vote estimate. The second, far longer analysis, will come in the following post.


The first way is simply looking at anticipated seat change. This is a national measure. For this I will use the New Statesman's/Ben Walker's as a basis because it is close enough to a good target. However, with a few adjustments. Prior to the election I suspected they were overshooting Labour cause the estimate didn't take into account defectors whatsoever, so Labour were starting from a lower baseline and had a higher mountain to climb in some councils. I also expected the Greens to do better than their benchmark - largely cause they could cut through the defector vs Labour chaos and sweep in certain councils.

Forecast:

-478 | Conservative
+273 | Labour
+129 | Lib-Dem
+52 | Green
+24 | Other

Actual:

-474 Conservative
+186 Labour
+104 Lib-Dem
+74 Green
+110 Others

So in terms of the national picture some parties missed their expectations, some hit them.

The Conservatives matched awful expectations, doing as bad as polling would suggest. They undeniably had a awful night.

Labour meanwhile undershot even my expectations. This is down to losing blocks of Muslim-heavy wards in certain northern councils to Independent challengers. However, despite this underperformance, nationally things are still decent for them.

The Lib-Dems slightly undershot the estimation, but more or less hit their national expectations with where the Tories are polling.

The Greens hit my own estimates, but in an unusual fashion as we will see later. They are inhabiting a role similar to the Lib-Dems right now, opposing both parties differently based on local circumstances, and who dominates in that area.

Independents obvious overshot. Though only half of this is Muslims motivated by Gaza. Shire Localists also had a good night.


But the national picture is only half the story.

[Oryxslayer]

The other way to look at things, and arguably the best but most difficult way, is with a scorecard. I laid out my views somewhat in this prior post, as well as the previews, but control or gains in key areas is what matters here. Electorally ‘quiet’ areas will be skipped for succinctness. How this will be sorted is by Labour then the Lib-Dems, and each will first be matched vs the Tories then other parties when relevant, and at the end of each will be surprise results. So the Conservative side is divided between the two groups.

Labour vs Conservative

Adur – outperformed expectations. Complete landslide for first ever majority.
Basildon – outperformed expectations. Took every target while also tactical voting gave Labour allies for a administration.
Bolton – above expectations. Held ground that was marginally won in 2023.
Cannock Chase – matched expectations.
Cherwell – matched expectations.
Crawley – outperformed expectations. Landslide unexpected given past tight contests.
Dudley – matched expectations. Expected close fight, was a close fight.
East Midlands Mayor – Matched expectations. Margins close to 2023 council results.
Hartlepool – above expectations. 9/12 was the benchmark, but Labour hit >50% in most wins even with Reform.
Harlow – Under expectations. Failed to take majority, but only by inches.
Hyndburn – outperformed expectations. Not just the Landslide, but a landslide surrounded by councils facing Muslim challengers.
Lincoln – above expectations. Swept Tories despite local headwinds.
London Mayor – Matched Expectations.
Milton Keynes – matched expectations. Years of strong results were repeated, Gains were not by overwhelming margins.
North Hertfordshire – above expectations.
Northeast Lincolnshire – outperformed expectations. Tossup if Tories would lose control, ended up easily falling.
Nuneaton – above expectations. Close result, but still took the majority when starting with near 0.
Peterborough – above expectations.
Plymouth – outperformed expectations. A second landslide without the local tory issues of 2023.  
Redditch – outperformed expectations. Landslide result.
Rugby – matched expectations. Took expected seats, Came close but failed in the reach targets.
Rushmoor – outperformed expectations. It’s not the seats won, but Labour winning them mostly >50%.
Southend – above expectations. Labour now has the plurality, but could not take a majority.
Stevenage – above expectations.
Swindon – matched expectations.
Tamworth – outperformed expectations. Sweep even after the MPs changed, and with many strong margins.
Tees Valley Mayor – below expectations. But perhaps down to Houchen not Labour.
Thurrock – outperformed expectations. Gains a control were anticipated but the ‘shock’ pre-election council tax raise seems to have allowed Labour to push into unfavorable turf.
Welwyn Hatfield – above expectations. Made more gains than in 2022 or 2023.
West Midlands Mayor – above expectations. The data suggests this would be an easy gain in normal circumstances – defying narratives – and Labour still gained it with Muslim troubles – defying additional and different narratives.

Labour vs Additional Groups

Basingstoke – Far below expectations. Other groups took Labours targets from 2023.
Bristol – below expectations. There is a silver lining verses the Tories, but the Greens are stronger.
Burnley – matched expectations. Made gains but did not land knockout on defectors.
Colcester – matched expectations. Failed to take coalition leadership, but did advance.
Cambridge – above expectations. Troubles vanished with the congestion charge.  
Hastings – Matched expectations(?). There was an outside shot at a sweep, but taking Tory and defector wards seems fine even alongside Green gains – especially since issues in the 24 hours before the vote here would have pushed things to the Greens.
Norwich – Matched expectations.
Oxford – below expectations. Local trasport containment policies continue to be net losers.
Portsmouth – below expectations. Localists took Labour’s targets.
Rochdale – Above expectations. Measured to Indie results elsewhere, the Gallowayites failed, even though they created greater expectations for themselves.  
Sheffield – above expectations.
Stroud – Above expectations. Even though the greens are now larger, and Labour would have liked control, Labour taking the back defector seats, and more was far from a given.
Worcester – matched expectations.

Labour shock results

Bradford – Below expectations. Anticipated losses to Muslims Indies, not in the dominant fashion of some wards.
Blackburn with Darwin – Below expectations. Losses to Muslim Indies only tempered by gains off Tories.
Havant – Above expectations. Somehow Labour were the main beneficiary of Tory collapse and could take control.
Kirklees – Below expectations. See Bradford.
North Yorkshire Mayor – Outperformed expectations. Not an expected gain, or seen as a target.
Oldham – Far below expectations. See Bradford.
Runnymeade – Above expectations. See Havant, but more shocking given the geography.
South Tyneside – Far below expectations. Though maybe not a surprise given local issues.
Wokingham – Above expectations. Surprise gains, in unfriendly turf historically.



Liberal Democrats vs Conservatives

Brentwood – Below expectations. No majority.
Cheltenham – Matched expectations.
Cherwell – Above expectations. Pushed into new rural turf.
Dorset – Matched expectations. Not a rural landslide like certain other councils last year.
Elmbridge – Matched & Below expectations. Tories mostly fell as anticipated, But localists did not so no majority.
Gloucester – Above expectations. No majority, but they were the unknown local beneficiary.
Gosport – Matched expectations.
Milton Keynes – Matched Expectations.
North Hertfordshire – Matched expectations.
Pendle - Matched expectations.
Rugby – Matched expectations. Also missed their reach seats.
Wokingham – Below expectations. Missed majority.
West Oxfordshire – Matched expectations.
Welwyn Hatfield – Below expectations. Labour took some targets.

Liberal Democrats vs Additional Groups

Colchester – below expectations. Failed to take Tory wards lost a seat to Labour.
Lincoln – below expectations. No Local Labour backlash leaves the Lib-Dems confined to their corner of the city.
Maidstone – Below expectations. Greens were the opposition of choice.
Hull – matched expectations.
Portsmouth – Matched expectations. Continue to see potential opportunities squandered.
Sheffield – Below Expectations.
Stockport – Below Expectations. Did not take majority.

Lid-Dem Shock results

Newcastle – below expectations. Failed to capitalize on events and lost ground, even to a determined Conservative.
Tandridge – below expectations. Let localists capture the narrative, and now there are way too many groupings here.
Tunbridge Wells – Outperformed Expectations. Did not expect a play for the majority versus other parties.



So what does the checklist suggest?

Again, the Conservatives matched or even undershot their awful expectations. The only cherries to pick are Harlow, Tees Valley, and shire P&Cs, and those cherries taste foul.

Labour, by contrast, on average were above expectations. And their expectations were very good to start with. They had a very good night by this measure. The only opposition to the narrative were the various shock underperformances, usually to Muslim Indies.

The Lib-Dems did good in the national picture, but here I would say they actually undershot their expectations. In classic Lib-Dem fashion there were a few good results only the party could see coming, but their expected targets did not fall - and some were seemingly very easy. This isn't to say they had a bad result, but rather a result that didn't hit expectations set by 2023.

The Greens going in had 3 big targets, and one was good compared to the possibilities. Sure they would have loved a majority in Bristol, but the end result is above expectations. Instead what didn't go their way is that Labour remain a strong opposition there, taking Tory seats while losing others to the Greens. Stroud and Hastings meanwhile saw good Green results, but again Labour came stomping back in, defying expectations. The expected Green exploitation of a divided Labour vs Defector field did not occur. Instead, most of their overall gains and good results were in lesser targets, as well as the odd ward where local activists concentrated their efforts.

[Oryxslayer]

How do we reconcile the divergences between these two? By bringing in the P&Cs. They confluence of these three tells us something about the national GE picture.

The Conservatives held onto many of these shire posts, albeit by small margins. A universal swing though would have expected more to fall. Almost all probably would if still under runoff rules, and that is the key.

The answer to the puzzle is that Labour know the environment has been and continues to remain anti-Tory rather than pro-Labour. They know voters are behaving tactically and are looking for viable options. So in rural areas, Labour are often not even getting the odd seat. Cause other parties have the monopoly on opposition. In many more places though it is Labour with the prominent position, and they outperform expectations as others gravitate to them.

In short, Labour have hit a new ceiling, much much higher than the one people saw in 2019, but one that is not of their own making.

This tells us something important about the forthcoming general election: universal swing will likely need to take a back seat. Labour are playing for a majority, know they can win a majority, and know they can win big. There is no point playing for the the 500+ result, especially if the voters in seats on the road to 500 don't see Labour as the opposition in their area. So Labour's vision is narrower, but at the same time everything within it is probably going to be won with wider margins than expected.


The seats outside their window are not of major concern. Some are going to go Lib-Dem. if rural seats fall to Labour, great, but it will probably be of crazy vote splits with the Lib-Dems and Reform. If allowed to, without a relevant Reform, the P&Cs suggest the Tories are more likely to hold their base where neither a federal Lib-Dems or Labour are truly viable - some 125ish seats. They'll collapse everywhere else. But the Reform part is key.

[afleitch]

Combined results so far for England PCC's and elected mayors (where no PCC election)

Labour 42.6
Conservative 30.7
Liberal Democrat 13.0
Green 5.2 (8.9 where standing)
Others 8.5

Probably a good combination of 'expected' results and over/under performances. Worth noting that in 'cop shop' elections, you do expect the Tories to do better

Final tally

Labour 42.1
Conservative 32.5
Liberal Democrat 13.1
Green 4.7
Others 7.5

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The funniest thing about Canvey Island parochialism is that the paranoia that underlies so much of it even has a rational justification: we have learned from the archives that until the completion of the Thames Barrier in 1982, the official plan for the nightmare combination of a Spring Tide and an extreme storm surge from the North Sea sufficiently bad to threaten central London was to inundate Canvey Island in order to save the City and Westminster.

Not to mention the enormous oil facilities built right next to housing. Hazardous Materials that aren’t supposed to be anywhere near settlements yet were approved by the Secretary of State “in the national interest”.

[Frodo]

How do we reconcile the divergences between these two? By bringing in the P&Cs. They confluence of these three tells us something about the national GE picture.

The Conservatives held onto many of these shire posts, albeit by small margins. A universal swing though would have expected more to fall. Almost all probably would if still under runoff rules, and that is the key.

The answer to the puzzle is that Labour know the environment has been and continues to remain anti-Tory rather than pro-Labour. They know voters are behaving tactically and are looking for viable options. So in rural areas, Labour are often not even getting the odd seat. Cause other parties have the monopoly on opposition. In many more places though it is Labour with the prominent position, and they outperform expectations as others gravitate to them.

In short, Labour have hit a new ceiling, much much higher than the one people saw in 2019, but one that is not of their own making.

This tells us something important about the forthcoming general election: universal swing will likely need to take a back seat. Labour are playing for a majority, know they can win a majority, and know they can win big. There is no point playing for the the 500+ result, especially if the voters in seats on the road to 500 don't see Labour as the opposition in their area. So Labour's vision is narrower, but at the same time everything within it is probably going to be won with wider margins than expected.


The seats outside their window are not of major concern. Some are going to go Lib-Dem. if rural seats fall to Labour, great, but it will probably be of crazy vote splits with the Lib-Dems and Reform. If allowed to, without a relevant Reform, the P&Cs suggest the Tories are more likely to hold their base where neither a federal Lib-Dems or Labour are truly viable - some 125ish seats. They'll collapse everywhere else. But the Reform part is key.

So is it fair to say that though the polls suggest that the election results for Conservatives would be worse even than in 1997, local election results are still hinting at a 1997-like result, which is still devastating for Tories but not as dire as they have been led to think?

[Oryxslayer]

SNIP

It's not that the polls are wrong - no, the results here show they are right. We have multiple elections and two years of aggregate data to lay the truth bare. Rather, it's the models that break under 20+ point swings. But that shouldn't be that shocking, nor is it surprising that some voters are more approachable than others.

For example, lets do a very rough estimation. Looking just at England - cause Wales and Scotland are more complicated for such a exercise - Labour probably need 360ish seats to match Blair after acconting for the other two regions. Looking at the data, here are some of the seats around that number, after accounting for the fact that Labour aren't going to seriously camapign against Lib-Dem Incumbents. Aldershot, which is basically Rushmoor (+ 2 Hart wards) - Labour just swept the council with over 51% of the vote to the Tories 39%. Wellingborough, which Labour won through a crushing by election. Bracknell, which was a triumph for tactical voting in 2023 and a come-from-nowhere Labour majority. Redditch, which Labour just swept by an 11 point margin that should be large enough to overcome the wards outside the council area. Tamworth, Cannock Chase, and the Basildon seats are even further down, but we didn't need the locals to prove Labour can win these harder lifts - the by-election proved that. But they are the exception, past 400 in the English seats and rural turf takes over with the occasional Lib-Dem target.

Never mind the seats around the majority threshold - Nuneaton, North Swindon, Hitchin, Plymouth Moor View...nobody should doubt these are easy gains after last week. A campaign is never easy, but the voters have rolled out the carpet.

But the local results suggest that without assistance Labour are going to have a hard time pushing deeper into unfriendly shire territory. In some seats that could come from the Lib-Dems, either tactically or through vote splits. But in many more seats a fractured Tory vote with Reform will give let Labour take shock wins. That is how Labour gets to 500, by accident because someone else opened the door.


How the Conservatives stop Reform right now is not my problem. Some support seems genuine from the old Brexit crowd, but more is just dissatisfaction among the base. It's not ideology, it's a loss of purpose. Poor perceptions have rotted away past devotion. Maybe a desperation campaign that stokes fears of letting Labour into your town will bring back enough voters to hold the rural redoubts. But what Sunak really needs is competence and success, things that are presently in very short supply.

[adma]

What's the roll call on the overlapping local byelections?

[CumbrianLefty]

Tories gained a couple of seats from Labour (their only losses) in London, but slightly down elsewhere. LibDems and Greens achieve small net gains.

EDIT: posted elsewhere that the summary is Lab -2 Tory -1 LibDem +2 Green +1.

[Duke of York]

Tories gained a couple of seats from Labour (their only losses) in London, but slightly down elsewhere. LibDems and Greens achieve small net gains.

EDIT: posted elsewhere that the summary is Lab -2 Tory -1 LibDem +2 Green +1.

What seats did they gain?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One thing that is striking is that Galloway's outfit did not perform as well in Rochdale as various apparently and sometimes genuinely unattached independents did elsewhere: specifically, they were unable to pull off wins in any of the more mixed wards. I don't think this is coincidental: the Galloway brand presumably acts as a bit of an incentive for those not in the target audience to actually go and vote.

[CumbrianLefty]

Tories gained a couple of seats from Labour (their only losses) in London, but slightly down elsewhere. LibDems and Greens achieve small net gains.

EDIT: posted elsewhere that the summary is Lab -2 Tory -1 LibDem +2 Green +1.

What seats did they gain?

Hope to post a full run down on the UK local by-elections page very soon.

[Oryxslayer]

Tories gained a couple of seats from Labour (their only losses) in London, but slightly down elsewhere. LibDems and Greens achieve small net gains.

EDIT: posted elsewhere that the summary is Lab -2 Tory -1 LibDem +2 Green +1.

What seats did they gain?

Hope to post a full run down on the UK local by-elections page very soon.

Some of the scattered solitary Conservative gains I spotted in the data tables - there are probably more. in addition to the London seat:

- Gosforth Ward in Newcastle. The council's been without Tories for a while here, just one of the reasons why the guy could run a campaign more personal than Blue.

- Astley Bridge Ward in Bolton. Conservatives won by One(!) vote. Which is surprising things were so close: cause the Conservatives won the first and second place seats here in 2023, leaving the incumbent Labour councilor as the odd one out.

- Cliviger with Worsthorne Ward in Burnley. Tories gained from Greens, and by a 20 point margin. Weird situation seems to have happened a number of Burnley areas. The Muslim Defector coalition seems to have angered certain voters, and there was some degree of opposition Tory - Labour tactical voting to get them and their allies out.

- Hyde Werneth Ward in Tameside. Here it just looks to be a very split vote.

- Rushall-Shelfield Ward in Walsall. This was an ex-defector ward which likely influenced things even though the defector did not stand - despite Reform also having a candidate.

- Shirley West and St. Alphege Ward in Solihull. the second seat was a Tory defector who did not stand, so it doesn't really count. Shirley West though was held by the Greens, and even though the local Conservatives have been defying gravity for a while (cause it's Solihull) this ward still went Green in 2022 and 2023.

- In Freeland & Hanborough and North Leigh Wards in West Oxfordshire, the Conservatives took back their seats from councilors who went Indie.

- Woolston Ward in Southampton. Nothing special I can tell, just a close result in a tighter ward.

And a more numerous list of territory not held prior to Boundary changes but held now cause the new lines happened to work in their favor. However since the same councils often had other wards going in the opposite direction, I'm not sure how much these count.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh there's always a fair amount of churn in local elections at ward level, even in years that are Bad for one party or other. Turnout would have needed to have been a bit higher across the board for a total steamroller effect.

[YL]

Sheffield



Rotherham (dots representing councillors)



West Yorkshire

[EastAnglianLefty]

The funniest thing about Canvey Island parochialism is that the paranoia that underlies so much of it even has a rational justification: we have learned from the archives that until the completion of the Thames Barrier in 1982, the official plan for the nightmare combination of a Spring Tide and an extreme storm surge from the North Sea sufficiently bad to threaten central London was to inundate Canvey Island in order to save the City and Westminster.

[CumbrianLefty]

Oh there's always a fair amount of churn in local elections at ward level, even in years that are Bad for one party or other. Turnout would have needed to have been a bit higher across the board for a total steamroller effect.

I think that 1995 is unique in my lifetime for being the only local elections that featured no net losses by Labour at council level at all (IIRC the Tories managed to gain in a single one - from Independents)