🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Pick Up the Phone]

Honestly I kind of hope for the last one in order to have clearly drawn left vs right lines, but I would be ok with the 4 party coalition as well (and if I lived in Thuringia I would hope for that one).

Don't think that there are any lines like this. Both CDU and FDP are infinitely closer to the SPD than to the AfD. If anything, there are four different camps: center-right (CDU/FDP), center-left (SPD/GRÜNE), center-left in all but name (LINKE) and crazy ethnofascistpluralist and universally despised populism (AfD). The consequence would be 1+2+3 against 4.

Linke-CDU is the one I am afraid of. If CDU starts doing deals with borderline commies (not that I have a problem with Linke, but I imagine a lot of German conservatives do) the German moderate right is dead. Which means a lot of moderate conservatives will start voting AfD, which is a very, very bad thing.

Also not so sure about this. Many CDU voters who prefer more "conservative" positions might have already left. And the argument also works with respect to the AfD: I know many moderate CDU voters who would immediately abandon their party should there ever be a coalition agreement with the AfD.

[urutzizu]

The Thuringa constitution is fairly accommodative concerning minority governments. I assume it will be Red-Red-Green tolerated by the CDU, not a coalition. I do not see new elections helping anyone except the Linke, who will Consolidate the Centre-left further and the AFD who will benefit from mainstream Politicans screwing things up.

You make a very, very important point Tack, which is the disturbance of a healthy Party system though successions of Grand Coalitions, and now that there is no majority for that, more and more desperately cobbled-together anybody-but-afd Coalitions. Increasingly Voters simply opposed to the Government in the east are being pushed into the AFD camp, as the only major opposition party. This sort of stuff is eerily reminiscent of Weimar and I really do not like it.

Other Countries have experimented with includung the Far-right in some form in the Government, most notably our neighbors to the south, something that has had, eventually, might I say even "good" results for democracy. But in Germany the historical baggage is just too large, and the AFD is not necessarily in Policy, but definitely in Personell and Rethoric far worse then the FPÖ. And Van Papen also notoriously declared about the NSDAP "We will have them pressed against the wall in a couple of weeks"...

German democracy has dug itself in a ditch, especially in East Germany and I am not sure how you get out of that.

[Pick Up the Phone]

You make a very, very important point Tack, which is the disturbance of a healthy Party system though successions of Grand Coalitions, and now that there is no majority for that, more and more desperately cobbled-together anybody-but-afd Coalitions. Increasingly Voters simply opposed to the Government in the east are being pushed into the AFD camp, as the only major opposition party. This sort of stuff is eerily reminiscent of Weimar and I really do not like it.

I would contest this position. What does "healthy party system" mean in the first place? That we'll have a center-right and a center-left party with minor coalition partners for eternity? That we'll have Lagerwahlkämpfe (which mainly pivoted on economic issues in the past) for eternity? I'm certainly no supporter of the GroKo, but it is perfectly fine that party systems change over time with old parties/cleavages disappearing and new ones emerging. It is also perfectly fine to form such a coalition in order to prevent outright nazis from rising to power. In the East, the AfD might indeed be perceived as sole "opposition party" - in the West, however, this role is definitely played by the GRÜNEN. I would thus caution not to overrate the importance of the results we were getting from Saxony, Brandenburg, and Thuringia. It was clear from the outset that the AfD would make major gains there, but these might be the last victories for quite some time. The next state election is in Hamburg (February 2020) where the AfD polls between 4% and 9% and then there is nothing else for the remainder of the year. Enough time for the political landscape to change quite a bit.

Also, one could claim that the German party system was already structurally imbalanced since the end of the Schröder years and the rise of the LINKE; the SPD never had a serious chance to become the strongest party since then. This has probably contributed a lot to the situation we find ourselves in today.

Other Countries have experimented with includung the Far-right in some form in the Government, most notably our neighbors to the south, something that has had, eventually, might I say even "good" results for democracy. But in Germany the historical baggage is just too large, and the AFD is not necessarily in Policy, but definitely in Personell and Rethoric far worse then the FPÖ. And Van Papen also notoriously declared about the NSDAP "We will have them pressed against the wall in a couple of weeks"...

Putting the AfD into government would be insane. It would (a) further normalize and legitimize racism, xenophobia, anti-semitism, homophobia, and anti-intellectualism; (b) destroy the FDP and the CDU which the AfD would both need to form a coalition; (c) create a climate of ultimate polarization and cripple German politics for many years. I'm also concerned about the AfD but there is no need to panic just because a 12-15% party got a couple of good results in some of the most rural, aging, economically disadvantaged, and politically irrelevant states.

[skbl17]

FDP just fell below 5% again. 4.9994%; 11 voting stations to go. Talk about a nailbiter.

Edit: And now they're back...5.0003%. 10 voting stations left.

[jaichind]

5.0004% with 3 voting stations left  for FDP.  Amazing

[Astatine]

FDP just fell below 5% again. 4.9994%; 11 voting stations to go. Talk about a nailbiter.

Edit: And now they're back...5.0003%. 10 voting stations left.

5.0004 %, 4 votes above the threshold with 3014/3017 counted. Quite likely that the final results and not the preliminary ones will decide whether the Free Democrats succeed or fail.

In the Hesse state election in 2018 (most recent one where I could find comparisons of preliminary and final results), FDP benefitted disproportionally the most and gained 0.01 %p with finalized recounting, which could save them in Thuringia. Don't know if there is more data on that from other elections, but would be interesting to see which party benefits the most from recounts.

[urutzizu]

The FDP lost 56 Votes from preliminary to final count in Brandenburg this Year and gained 13 Votes in Saxony. The last outstanding polling station had the FDP at basically average to overall performance last time, so who knows. They are 12 Votes above the threshold as of writing.

There are no mechanisms for full recounts in Germany on federal or state level. Only individual polling stations can be recounted if there is proof of fraud or other irregularities.

Edit: All Polling places counted, they are over the Threshold by exactly 5 Votes.
Final Results on the 7th of November.

[Astatine]

All votes counted. FDP at 5.0005 %, 5 votes above the threshold.

Final results with recounts in some precincts could still change that...

[Keep Calm and ...]

LINKE: 31,0% (+2,8)
AfD: 23,4% (+12,8)
CDU: 21,8% (-11,7)
SPD: 8,2% (-4,2)
GRÜNE: 5,2% (-0,5)
FDP: 5,0005% (+2,5)
others: 5,4% (-1,7)

turnout: 64,9% (+12,2)

[Tender Branson]

Maps for election districts:

https://www.mdr.de/thueringen/landtagswahl/landtagswahl-thueringen-direktkandidaten-102.html

Maps for administrative districts:

https://www.mdr.de/thueringen/landtagswahl/kreise-wahl-auszaehlung-100.html

Maps by communities:

https://www.mdr.de/thueringen/landtagswahl/gemeinden-wahl-auszaehlung-100.html

[Hnv1]

What now? Dark red black coalition?

[Middle-aged Europe]

What now? Dark red black coalition?

Merely suggesting openness to that (as it was done now by CDU state leader Mike Mohring) led to a lot of infighting and bickering within the CDU today. Since it could literally rip the Thuringian CDU apart I suppose the chances for that are rather small.

As a more viable alternative a Left Party minority government which would be tolerated by the CDU was suggested though. In any case, Mohring has agreed to talk with Left Party minister-president Bodo Ramelow about the possibility.

The Left is also a relatively comfortable position, since the Thuringian state constitution says that the incumbent minister-president can indefinitely remain in office until a new one is elected. As such, a Left Party minority government will automatically came in place anway as soon as the new elected state parliament convenes. So, in a way it's merely up to the CDU to decide whether they want to work with that government or not.

Ideologically, Bodo Ramelow himself is so moderate that he's practically a social democrat which makes to whole idea at the very least plausible. The main argument against the CDU cooperating with him boils down to "but he's a member in the wrong political party!".

Something that's probably not gonna happen is a Left-SPD-Green-FDP coalition, since the FDP is very steadfast in ruling that option out. Quite understable, since governing as the smallest partner in such a constellation could very well destroy the FDP state chapter in Thuringia for good. So, the FDP instead decided to pass the bucket to the CDU.

And before anyone else asks... yes, AfD-CDU-FDP (since AfD and CDU don't have a majority of their own anyway) is certainly by far the least likeliest of any coalitions or other cooperation models. There probably would rather be a fresh election instead of that.

[buritobr]

Die Linke had >35% in Erfurt, Jena and Weimar, and the sum of Linke+SPD+Grüne in these cities were >55%. The AfD did better in small towns.

[President Johnson]

What now? Dark red black coalition?

I think the most likely outcome is a minority government with the CDU voting present for minister-president. However, after a year or so, this is going to fail due to the necessity to pass a budget. The big question then is, who gets the blame?

I can't imagine the CDU entering coalition with the Left, even when the state party is pretty moderate in comparison to others. CDU state leader Mike Mohring has indicated he's open to talk, but other Christian Democrats from the national level and state parties voiced strong opposition to such a coalition. And after the disastrous CDU showing, Mohring's position isn't that strong any longer.

[Pick Up the Phone]

What now? Dark red black coalition?

I think the most likely outcome is a minority government with the CDU voting present for minister-president.

This. As I said before, an actual coalition between CDU and LINKE is very unlikely to happen. There is no real advantage but a lot of down side for the CDU. Supporting a minority government from the outside allows the party to keep its original promise (no coalition with either AfD or LINKE) and enforce new elections once it makes sense.

In some way, it's really a pity that Ramelow talks like a Social Democrat, behaves like a Social Democrat, governs like a Social Democrat, but remains, after all, a LINKE politician. Otherwise, everything would be so much easier right now.

[TheSaint250]

In some way, it's really a pity that Ramelow talks like a Social Democrat, behaves like a Social Democrat, governs like a Social Democrat, but remains, after all, a LINKE politician. Otherwise, everything would be so much easier right now.

What are some ways where he differs from the party, and do others in the party attack him frequently?

[sopojarwo]

How about CDU-AFD coalition and let AFD self-expose their incompetence in govt, also it'll do a damage to their "anti-establishment" brand

[Middle-aged Europe]

How about CDU-AFD coalition and let AFD self-expose their incompetence in govt, also it'll do a damage to their "anti-establishment" brand

Because fighting racism by electing a racist to the position of head of government kind of defeats the purpose. The AfD is stronger than the CDU in Thuringia which means the top position could actually fall to Björn Höck in such a coalition. Which in turn means making someone minister-president who not only believes that Germany puts way too much emphasis on commemorating the Holocaust, but who at one point also justified his opposition to immigration by arguing that black people - unlike white people - possess a genetic predisposition for a high birth rate. Some things come at a too high a price.

[Middle-aged Europe]

In some way, it's really a pity that Ramelow talks like a Social Democrat, behaves like a Social Democrat, governs like a Social Democrat, but remains, after all, a LINKE politician. Otherwise, everything would be so much easier right now.

What are some ways where he differs from the party, and do others in the party attack him frequently?

Can't cite any specific examples myself right now but Ramelow isn't exactly known as a person who argues in favour of abolishing capitalism, for instance. So it's more of a case of what Ramelow isn't saying or doing instead what he's doing and he's operating mainly as a maintaining the status quo guy rather than a radical revolutionary. Oddly enough, I can't recall anyone attacking him for that, although I don't really know what's said about him behind the scenes in his party. Electoral success usually makes one immune to such criticism being voiced openly.

[President Johnson]

What now? Dark red black coalition?

I think the most likely outcome is a minority government with the CDU voting present for minister-president.

This. As I said before, an actual coalition between CDU and LINKE is very unlikely to happen. There is no real advantage but a lot of down side for the CDU. Supporting a minority government from the outside allows the party to keep its original promise (no coalition with either AfD or LINKE) and enforce new elections once it makes sense.

In some way, it's really a pity that Ramelow talks like a Social Democrat, behaves like a Social Democrat, governs like a Social Democrat, but remains, after all, a LINKE politician. Otherwise, everything would be so much easier right now.

Yes, I've said this years ago the moderate parts of the Left like Bodo Ramelow, Petra Pau or Dietmar Bartsch should switch to the Social Democrats (or merge the moderate wing), while the far-lefties should form an own minor (socialist/comminist) party.

Entering a coalition with the Left would also be a major long-term risk for the CDU, because it's it makes them kind of obsolete and would alienate more conservative voters who used to support them over the AfD.

[urutzizu]

The Civil War is on in the CDU after Thuringa. Friedrich Merz has on ZDF national TV gone full kamakaze on Merkel, saying Merkel has to go, accused her of being at fault for the Governments "horrible" image and proceeded to shred on her foreign and domestic policy. Brutal. And just after that Roland Koch, the frm. Hesse Premier doubled down. All the while AKK is like frozen.

The conservative wing has licked Blood. They not only want to topple AKK, they want Merkels head as well. It is looking increasingly untenable that AKK will lead the Party into the next election.

[Pick Up the Phone]

How about CDU-AFD coalition and let AFD self-expose their incompetence in govt, also it'll do a damage to their "anti-establishment" brand

Governing with far-right parties is a dangerous undertaking. There is no general indication that it helps the center-right party and for every Austria (where the FPÖ was quite stable before the Ibiza affair) there's an Italy where things go wrong and the far-right benefits from such a constellation. Apart from that, there are at least two other points to be considered: (1) From a societal perspective, normalizing far-right thought, xenophobia, and racism simply cannot be the solution. It weakens social coherence, deepens polarization, and creates an atmosphere of hatred, distrust, and enmity. It's absolutely the wrong way to deal with extremists. (2) From a CDU perspective, entering a CDU-AfD coalition doesn't make any sense. Hardly any AfD voter will come back to the CDU, yet many voters in the center could turn away from the party (and some might even vote for the GRÜNE next time!). There's no real strategic benefit and Thuringia is not that important after all.

[Pick Up the Phone]

In some way, it's really a pity that Ramelow talks like a Social Democrat, behaves like a Social Democrat, governs like a Social Democrat, but remains, after all, a LINKE politician. Otherwise, everything would be so much easier right now.

What are some ways where he differs from the party, and do others in the party attack him frequently?

It is not only Ramelow but large parts of the LINKE in Eastern Germany. They are, in general terms, more pragmatic than their Western counterparts; they're also less urban, less reliant on young and migrant voters (their best sociodemographic group are actually pensioners) and, due to their status as a regional Volkspartei, much more used to take political responsibility and seek compromises.

Within the LINKE, the cleavage between urban and mostly academic Westerners and more traditionally post-GDR Easterners exists since the early days of the party. It has become a bit more pronounced in recent times, however, as the party continues to improve its results in the West whereas its numbers in many Eastern states are eroding quite quickly - not at least because of the AfD. As the first and only minister-president of his party, Ramelow is widely respected and while his policies resemble those of a Social Democrat more than those of a revolutionary Socialist (meaning that he focuses on concrete improvements in his state, doesn’t shy away from listening to business representatives, seeks not to alienate groups that are traditionally skeptical of the LINKE etc.), there are hardly any intra-party attacks against him. He is not that involved in the ongoing power struggle at the federal level and, as Ye Olde Europe has noted correctly, his electoral success has prevented potential rivals from openly doubting his position. There are easier targets.

[Pick Up the Phone]

The Civil War is on in the CDU after Thuringa. Friedrich Merz has on ZDF national TV gone full kamakaze on Merkel, saying Merkel has to go, accused her of being at fault for the Governments "horrible" image and proceeded to shred on her foreign and domestic policy. Brutal. And just after that Roland Koch, the frm. Hesse Premier doubled down. All the while AKK is like frozen.

The conservative wing has licked Blood. They not only want to topple AKK, they want Merkels head as well. It is looking increasingly untenable that AKK will lead the Party into the next election.

The Merkel loyalists are gearing up for war as well. Daniel Günther, the popular minister-president of Jamaica Schleswig-Holstein has today dismissed the criticism of Merz and Koch. He spoke of "old men" who would like "to settle old scores" and I really cannot say that he's wrong with this interpretation. Honestly, it's a disaster for the CDU if people there still listen to guys like Koch.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Given that AKK turned out to be a gaffe machine doing overtime, Friedrich Merz perhaps sees a real oppening for him to finally succeed Merkel as Chancellor. Whether he's too overconfident with this assessement remains to be seen. Koch on the other end is indeed simply settling old scored (and maybe hoping to help Merz in succeeding Merkel).

Even if AKK managed to eliminate herself as the frontrunner, I'd say it's likely that Armin Laschet eventually tries to make a play for the Chancellorship under such a scenario. Merz' full-scale attack is likely to divide the party and this may actually hinder his chances in the end. Laschet on the other hand could be seen as someone who could unite all factions.