UK By-elections thread, 2021-

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So, is this like a Congressional election in West Virginia post-Obama?

A modern American equivalent would be Tim Ryan retiring and his seat going Republican 61-39 in the special election.

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Caught up on the last 2 months of the thread tonight, just wanted to point out:

Can someone give a Lean Likely Tossup type analysis of the By elections and when will they be?

After some quick research it seems like the 3 are

Safe CONSERVATIVE (likely Swing to LAB)
Safe CONSERVATIVE (likely Swing to LAB)
Lean CONSERVATIVE (SAFE Swing to LAB)

Can we please just ban him?


On a more serious note, what are the implications of this going forward assuming the results don't change? Are the Tories just going to go on, continuing to shed members until the full five-year term is up? Is there any prospect of another leadership challenge?

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Made the mistake of reading some of the linked Twitter threads, and was reminded of how much better Atlas is than most other sites for discussing politics. Bunch of morons going on about how there was no swing to Labour in absolute vote count and how conservatives only lost because of turnout.

These people have no idea how elections work.