if bush could run for a third term...

[WalterMitty]

...what percentage of the vote would he receive in the following counties (his 2004 result is in parentheses)

dc (9%)
shannon sd (12%)
san fran ca (15%)
macon al (17%)
menominee wi (17%)
berkshire ma (26%)
suffolk ma (23%)
cook il (29%)
philadelphia pa (19%)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If Bush could run for a third term and tried to do so, I doubt he'd get renominated, so unless he ran on an independent ticket, he wouldn't get to the general election.

[WalterMitty]

If Bush could run for a third term and tried to do so, I doubt he'd get renominated, so unless he ran on an independent ticket, he wouldn't get to the general election.

yes.  but that wasnt the question.  let's make believe.

[Smash255]

dc (4%)
shannon sd (7%)
san fran ca (6%)
macon al (12%)
menominee wi (11%)
berkshire ma (12%)
suffolk ma (13%)
cook il (17%)
philadelphia pa (11%)

[Lief 🗽]

I doubt he'd drop much further in the first few counties, maybe 1 or 2%, since those 9% in DC are already die-hard Republicans anyway.

[Person Man]

I bet they are quite wealthy.

[Nym90]

If Bush could run for a third term and tried to do so, I doubt he'd get renominated, so unless he ran on an independent ticket, he wouldn't get to the general election.

yes.  but that wasnt the question.  let's make believe.

Well actually it was, since you only asked what would happen if Bush ran again, not explicitly what would happen if he were the GOP nominee in 2008.

Although I agree that if he ran, he would still get the nomination. Not without a fight for sure, but in the end, the GOP wouldn't abandon an incumbent President, just like they didn't abandon Bush 41 in 1992 nor did the Dems abandon Carter in 1980 nor the GOP Ford in 1976.

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

The GOP would be destroyed.

[Jaggerjack]

Alameda, CA: 18%
Santa Clara, CA: 27%

[DownWithTheLeft]

Bergen County NJ: 42%

[Verily]

Bergen County NJ: 42%

Barely worse than last time? DWTL, you are a riot.

Bergen County, NJ: 32%

[Hash]

Bergen County NJ: 42%

Barely worse than last time? DWTL, you are a riot.

Bergen County, NJ: 32%

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

Bergen County NJ: 42%

Barely worse than last time? DWTL, you are a riot.

Bergen County, NJ: 32%

[Kaine for Senate '18]

DC: 7%
Shannon, SD: 10%
San Francisco, CA: 10%
Macon, AL: 14%
Menominee, WI: 16%
Berkshire, MA: 14%
Suffolk, MA: 17%
Cook, IL: 23%
Philadelphia, PA: 13%

[Erc]

If Bush ran for a third term, who would challenge him for the nomination?  Not all of the candidates currently running would, certainly.

[J. J.]

If Bush ran for a third term, who would challenge him for the nomination?  Not all of the candidates currently running would, certainly.

I frankly think that Bush would kill the current candidates, even McCain.

[Erc]

Ah, I meant challenge as in 'step up to the plate,' not as in 'give him a run for his money.' 

Republicans generally aren't fond of challenging their incumbents, although Bush is hardly in a situation comparable with most previous incumbents.  The only example I can think of is Buchanan '92 (and, of course, Reagan '76, but Ford had never been elected in the first place).

I could easily imagine Gingrich being Bush's Gene McCarthy--he's got nothing to lose, certainly isn't too afraid of criticizing the President.

As for Bush's chances, I assume he still probably has a net positive rating amongst Republicans...although, for starters, the 'electability' argument could easily persuade quite a few,

[Smash255]

Nassau, NY 26%

[Person Man]

The GOP would be destroyed.

Unless political debate becomes useless in this country and gets cut off in favor of conservative/reactionary thought, that's pretty much the consensus at this point of what will happen anyway. The question is whether they either become a 45% minority (like they used to be before 1979) or a 49.9% minority (like the dems were after 1979).

[Person Man]

The GOP would be destroyed.

Unless political debate becomes useless and the current two-party system is mortally wounded, that's pretty much the consensus at this point of what will happen anyway. The question is whether they either become a 45% minority (like they used to be before 1979) or a 49.9% minority (like the dems were after 1979).

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

The GOP would be destroyed.

Unless political debate becomes useless in this country and gets cut off in favor of conservative/reactionary thought, that's pretty much the consensus at this point of what will happen anyway. The question is whether they either become a 45% minority (like they used to be before 1979) or a 49.9% minority (like the dems were after 1979).

don't get too cocky...as the war in iraq turns around, so will the GOP's chances in 2008. the dems are already shying away from criticizing the war and are talking more about domestic issues.