Fox Biz Jan 14 Debate Criteria - Top 6 National or Top 5 in IA/NH

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Current standings:

Donald J. Trump | 36.2% | 28.8% | 25.0%
Ted Cruz            | 18.8% | 30.2% | 11.4%
Marco Rubio       | 11.0% | 12.4% | 13.8%
Ben Carson        | 9.2%   | 8.6%   | 6.2%
Jeb Bush            | 4.6%   | 4.6%   | 7.8%
Chris Christie     | 4.6%   | 2.4%   | 10.8%
John Kasich       | 2.0%   | 1.4%   | 8.4%
Carly Fiorina      | 2.6%   | 2.6%   | 4.0%
Rand Paul          | 2.4%   | 2.8%   | 3.8%
Mike Huckabee  | 1.6%   | 2.2%   | 0.6%
Rick Santorum  | 1.0%   | 0.4%   | 0.2%
George Pataki    | 0%     | 0.4%   | 0.2%

Gilmore is polling 0% everywhere.

Pataki is still at 0.2% - Reuters polls have never been used for these debates.

[Likely Voter]

Current standings:

Donald J. Trump | 36.2% | 28.8% | 25.0%
Ted Cruz            | 18.8% | 30.2% | 11.4%
Marco Rubio       | 11.0% | 12.4% | 13.8%
Ben Carson        | 9.2%   | 8.6%   | 6.2%
Jeb Bush            | 4.6%   | 4.6%   | 7.8%
Chris Christie     | 4.6%   | 2.4%   | 10.8%
John Kasich       | 2.0%   | 1.4%   | 8.4%
Carly Fiorina      | 2.6%   | 2.6%   | 4.0%
Rand Paul          | 2.4%   | 2.8%   | 3.8%
Mike Huckabee  | 1.6%   | 2.2%   | 0.6%
Rick Santorum  | 1.0%   | 0.4%   | 0.2%
George Pataki    | 0%     | 0.4%   | 0.2%

Gilmore is polling 0% everywhere.

This is not the list. Fox Biz is using only live phone polls. I believe you grabbed all the last five polls from Huffpollster which includes many non-live phone polls.

The current list is either the one posted by  Cris or me (if they are using ARG). 

[Cruzcrew]

Is the CNN poll included

[Likely Voter]

This is still current (assumes ARG NH is included)

[The Other Castro]

Based on what I've seen on how several media sources are treating the ARG poll, FOX may decide to use it after all in order to let Kasich in.

[Likely Voter]

Well if Paul doesn't make it and refuses the kiddie table and if Pataki loses his one poll keeping him at the kiddie table, I suspect Fox B may ignore the ARG poll just to keep up the numbers at the kiddie table. Otherwise it will just be Fiorina, Huckabee and Santorum.   

[Cruzcrew]

Does anyone know when the next poll comes out that's recognized by FOX?

[The Other Castro]

Does anyone know when the next poll comes out that's recognized by FOX?

I'd guess that Fox will come out with another poll before the deadline, and IBD/TIPP may be due for an update soon. We can probably assume we won't be getting another poll from CNN, Quinnipiac, USA, or Marist (they don't like their polls being used for debate criteria or something like that). Unlikely but possible polls include Monmouth, ABC, CBS/NYT, and NBC/WSJ. There's also always the possibility of a wildcard like Bloomberg or Pew.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I really want Jeb to be relegated to the kiddie table debate....can the people being polled PLEASE make that happen?

[ElectionsGuy]

So now with Pataki dropping out and Paul not participating, we'll have 3 people at the kids table. This is a disaster. Kasich could slip down to the kids table, but doesn't look likely.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

So now with Pataki dropping out and Paul not participating, we'll have 3 people at the kids table. This is a disaster. Kasich could slip down to the kids table, but doesn't look likely.

Probably won't have it in that case, if it is just Fiorina, Santorum, and Huckabee.

[cinyc]

So now with Pataki dropping out and Paul not participating, we'll have 3 people at the kids table. This is a disaster. Kasich could slip down to the kids table, but doesn't look likely.

Probably won't have it in that case, if it is just Fiorina, Santorum, and Huckabee.

Why not?  A kiddie table debate with those three will get higher ratings than anything Fox Business has on the air any time during a normal day.  They have a real economic incentive to keep it.

[Likely Voter]

As I noted before, Kasich's position at the main debate is solely based on the ARG poll. If Fox B wanted a more balanced night (six main, four kiddie) they could just not use the ARG poll. Then again, Paul or Kasich could also do well in polls released before the 11th that might be harder to ignore.

At this point, the kiddie table is solely something they are doing to get more ratings, there is no reason to break up the debates. They could easily just come up with a criteria that limited the main stage to 8-10 candidates with the rest watching from home.

[mencken]

So now with Pataki dropping out and Paul not participating, we'll have 3 people at the kids table. This is a disaster. Kasich could slip down to the kids table, but doesn't look likely.

Probably won't have it in that case, if it is just Fiorina, Santorum, and Huckabee.

Why not?  A kiddie table debate with those three will get higher ratings than anything Fox Business has on the air any time during a normal day.  They have a real economic incentive to keep it.

Plus, Fiorina (once before) and Christie have demonstrated that being the big fish in a small pond is not necessarily a bad place to be.

[°Leprechaun]

If Santorum doesn't drop out soon, it will be interesting to see if anyone joins him in his debate. If he is the only one left what then? Is he going to talk to himself?
Who will not qualify and if they don't will they drop out before the next debate?
Paul?
Kasich?
Huckabee?
Fiorina?
Any ideas?

edit (I didn't see this thread so someone moved my post here, anyway I think that the fewer candidates in the main debate, the better, two debates makes more sense until those with little or no chance drop out)

[Likely Voter]

A lot of the polls, especially the state polls are going to be pretty out of date by the cutoff time. It's possible that Paul has passed or tied Bush nationally and Huckabee has passed or tied Bush in IA, but there may not be enough polls before the 11th for that to matter even if true. It seems this time around Bush is the one benefiting from old polls.

[The Other Castro]

By the way, I didn't see it before but ARG has been added to RCP for the New Hampshire averages. Good news for Kasich.

[The Other Castro]

Rand Paul: I'm confident I'll make the next main debate stage

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/rand-paul-main-debate-stage-217218

Who's going to tell him?

[The Mikado]

Rand's hoping that FBN will pull a CNN and fiddle with the numbers for his benefit.

That...isn't going to happen.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

He'll do the same thing he did with CNN - Tell them he won't debate at all if he's not on the main stage, and hope they can't stomach the thought of excluding him entirely. Hopefully FBN doesn't give in, he needs to drop out and endorse Kasich or Christie (both of which should make this debate).

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

He'll do the same thing he did with CNN - Tell them he won't debate at all if he's not on the main stage, and hope they can't stomach the thought of excluding him entirely. Hopefully FBN doesn't give in, he needs to drop out and endorse Kasich or Christie (both of which should make this debate).

Lol never going to happen.

[This account no longer in use.]

Drop out, yes. Endorse Kasich or Christie? Nope.

[Cruzcrew]

Rand endorsing kasich or CHRISTIE? Keep dreaming. He'd probably endorse carson then cruz.

[The Other Castro]

I was looking at the numbers, and it seems his best chance of making the debate is if two additional national polls are released before the deadline, with him leading Bush by a combined net +1% (which would tie them in national support). Absent that, he's not making it in.

[This account no longer in use.]

I wouldn't even be surprised if he made the same move as his father and didn't make an endorsement.