MI-Glengariff Group/WDIV-TV: Clinton up 4, Sanders up 19

[pbrower2a]

Obama's approvals are better than Reagan's at the same point in 1988. If he sits at 52-53% come October then it's hard to imagine Clinton or any other Democrat losing.

Eisenhower had at least a 60% approval rating for most of 1960.

Eisenhower was still admired more for his generalship than for his Presidency.  The 60% approval is consistent with his landslide wins in 1952 and 1956.

I have my theory on why Nixon lost in 1960: he was ugly. Not in behavior, but in appearance. Hillary Clinton doesn't look all that bad.

Add to that, few Vice-Presidents ever succeed their predecessor as President by through an election after the completion of the predecessor's term.

[pbrower2a]

As a point of reference, Obama was polling worse at this time in MI in 2008:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/mi/michigan_mccain_vs_obama-553.html

Rasmussen   6/9 - 6/9           500 LV   --   42   45   Obama +3
SurveyUSA   5/27 - 5/27   529 RV   --   41   37   McCain +4
Detroit News   5/19 - 5/22   600 RV   --   44   40   McCain +4
Rasmussen   5/7 - 5/7           500 LV   4.5   45   44   McCain +1

Final Result in November: Obama+16.4

Of course the economy had yet to go into an undeniable tailspin...

[pbrower2a]

The 19% margin involving Sanders suggests the perfect storm as a political disaster for the GOP.  Michigan went 57-41 in 2008. probably a max-out for any Democratic nominee not facing Barry Goldwater.