I thought it was about time we took a look at this:
| State | -12 Margin | = Margin | Actual Margin |
| Iowa | -7 | +6 | -0.3 |
| New Hampshire | +17 | -29 | +22.4 |
| Nevada | -15 | -3 | -5.3 |
| South Carolina | -23 | -11 | -47.5 |
| Alabama | -38 | -27 | -58.6 |
| Arkansas | -31 | -20 | -36.6 |
| Colorado | +1 | +13 | +18.7 |
| Georgia | -35 | -24 | -43.2 |
| Massachusetts | -1 | +11 | -1.4 |
| Minnesota | +5 | +17 | +23.2 |
| Oklahoma | -10 | +2 | +10.4 |
| Tennessee | -16 | -4 | -33.7 |
| Texas | -32 | -20 | -32 |
| Vermont | +38 | +49 | +72.5 |
| Virginia | -21 | -9 | -29.1 |
| Kansas | +1 | +13 | +35.4 |
| Louisiana | -33 | -22 | -46.9 |
| Nebraska | -1 | +11 | +14.2 |
| Maine | +16 | +27 | +28.2 |
| Michigan | -1 | +11 | +1.5 |
| Mississippi | -43 | -32 | -66.1 |
| Florida | -27 | -15 | -31.1 |
| Illinois | -15 | -3 | -1.8 |
| Missouri | -9 | +4 | -0.2 |
| North Carolina | -12 | +0 | -13.8 |
| Ohio | -14 | -2 | -13.8 |
| Arizona | -4 | +9 | -17.7 |
| Idaho | +11 | +23 | +56.8 |
| Utah | +2 | +14 | +59 |
| Alaska | +15 | +27 | +63.2 |
| Washington | +9 | +21 | +45.6 |
| Hawaii | +2 | +14 | +39.8 |
| Wisconsin | +6 | +18 | +12.9 |
I've bolded where he's either dramatically overperformed the tied-race numbers or dramatically underperformed the losing-race numbers.
In summary, he's gotten killed in the south, done well in the midwest, and killed in the "states that only recently joined the union" primaries we've had lately.
Why does he do so well in sparsely-populated states? I'm predicting Wyoming and the Dakotas will also be blowouts, and he'll do mediocre everywhere else.
