Peru

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

A few questions about the upcoming election:

1-Why is Toledo so unpopular? His approval ratings are lower than Bob Taft's!
2-Since Fujimori has been effectively barred from running will his party run anyone else?
3-If Fujimori is extradited and tried before the election, might this give a boost to Toledo's party, as it might remind people of Toledo's former status as opposition leader instead of whatever he's doing now that's made him so unpopular?
4-Who are the current frontrunners anyway?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So what will likely happen is Humala and Flores are the top two vote getters, and then a runoff between them, where Flores is probably the favorite? Any mainstream left candidates running well? I understand Peruvian elections can be fairly unpredictable, in fact when Fujimori was initially elected (before he established himself as quasi-dictator), didn't he beat a very popular frontrunner and former Secretary General of the UN who was assumed to have the race locked up since almost the beginning?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ollanta? I guess some indian (I´m sorry, I don´t know the politically correct term for that in English, "native-Peruvian" sounds odd) name.

Just say Native American. After all it's still South America. The reason I hate the term Indian is not any PC reasons but because they aren't Indians. They don't live anywhere near India.

Left of the Dial, I just read a new poll today. It has Humala with 28% (he was 11% three months ago and 2% a year ago), and Flores with 25% (the same as then).  The mainstream left candidate is former President Alan García, from APRA, the only traditional peruvian party that´s still relevant. He´s been losing support in the polls and is currently in the 3rd place, with 15%. He already lost to Toledo in 2000, which is not surprising since his administration was, well, disastrous (that´s why Fujimori then looked like a good president to so many people). Former President Paniagua (I think a centrist, anti-corruption, anti-Fujimori) has 10%. Toledo´s "party" (well, a bunch a people that support him) is running some candidate with only 2%... just like Fujimori´s candidate. The worrying thing about the poll is that didn´t include rural areas, where Humala has its main electoral base. He´s running an "anti-party" / "anti-establishment" campaign and seems quite successful so far. And I guess the more Toledo, the Wall Street Journal and the other candidates criticise him, the more he grows in the polls ("hey, they´re all against me, I´m really the anti-establishment guy"). I assume Paniagua´s voters would go to Flores in a runoff, but I´m not so sure where would Garcia´s voters go to.

Hmm, this actually sounds a lot like Atlasian elections. Lots of parties but that doesn't really effect voting, and all sides are fractured badly.

Also, how much influence should what's left of the Shining Path have on the election in rural areas? Even though they are no serious threat to the government anymore, they could still disrupt elections in rural areas pretty well, which was their specialty.

About Fujimori´s first election, he defeated Vargas Llosa, a writer (Nobel Prize winner, I think), who was the clear favourite. Vargas Llosa ran as a right winger and Fujimori as a populist, although, like Menem in Argentina, then he adopted the agenda of the loser candidate. I think in that election Perez de Cuellar, the guy you are refering to, also ran, but he came in 3rd. Not sure though.

Still, Fujimori was a real real dark horse though, wasn't he? What I heard the theory for his upset victory was lots of the Natives just voted for him because he wasn't Spanish.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm rooting for Garcia. Humala sounds like bad news from the article I read today. He was a described as very "law and order" military type (that type of leader doesn't have a great record in Latin America) and was attacked by protestors over supposed abuses in his record in his campaign against the Shining Path and was denounced by protestors as "Murderer!" and "You're another Chavez!" Does that mean Chavez is unpopular in other South American countries then?

Hopefully Garcia comes in second. But even if he doesn't, I'd have to support Flores over Humala. It also sounds like Flores would easily beat Humala. The article mentioned women are usually considered far more honest in Peru, and she actually even looks like a very nice woman, while Humala just looks cold. Garcia apparentely doesn't have a great record as president, so I don't know about that. But he's still my favorite.