2013 Elections in Germany

[Tender Branson]

Among the most economically active voters (those aged 30-59 years old), the CSU gained 7-10% compared with the last election.

The CSU remained flat among young voters and only gained 4% among 60+ voters.

[Senator Cris]

link for the scrutiny?

[Tender Branson]

I think the CSU could actually get 50% in the real vote count, considering these numbers.

But we'll see.

[minionofmidas]

'first projection'
CSU 49.0
SPD 20.9
FW 8.4
Greens 8.3
FDP 3.0
Left 2.1
Pirate 1.9
other 6.4 ... heh. On those totals the ÖDP is probably ahead of the Left, no?

[Tender Branson]

First ZDF projection:

[Hans-im-Glück]

other 6.4 ... heh. On those totals the ÖDP is probably ahead of the Left, no?

This wouldn't be a surprise for me. The ÖDP is a very active Party ans I expect them at 2,5%

[Tender Branson]

Job Approval Rating of Governor Seehofer (CSU):

75-19 approve (among all voters)

CSU-voters: 94% approve, SPD: 53%, FW: 74%, Greens: 46%, FDP: 86%

[RogueBeaver]

75% approval? "Sort of like God", eh?

[Senator Cris]

http://www.landtagswahl2013.bayern.de/taba0999.html

This?

[Tender Branson]

Gov. Seehofer now speaking.

[minionofmidas]

75% approval? "Sort of like God", eh?

God would, in most polls, not be voted "less trustworthy" than the Devil (by a 34-42 margin, but still.)

[minionofmidas]

http://www.landtagswahl2013.bayern.de/taba0999.html

This?

Will show the actual results as they become available.

Probably only once constituencies are fully in, though. You will have to look for individual district's websites for precinct results as they come in.

As to a link to Tender's exit poll data... I don't have one. He probably just heard/saw them on tv.

[Tender Branson]

73% in Bayern approve of Merkel.

[minionofmidas]

Of course, numbers like this...

Stadt Nürnberg
Result after 2 of 439 precincts counted

 CSU     64,9 %  
 SPD     22,8 %  
 FREIE WÄHLER 2,8 %  
 GRÜNE     2,8 %  
 FDP     0,9 %  
 LINKE     3,3 %  
 Sonstige 2,4 %  

are not particularly informative. Wonder how those two precincts voted last time...

[Tender Branson]

New ARD projection:



Only a very, very tiny amount of precincts are in this projection yet ...

[minionofmidas]

Of course, the exit poll was virtually spot on in Bavaria last time.

[Franknburger]

It might be worth noting that Seehofer is married for the second time, and aside from three legitimate children, has a daughter born out of wedlock. This obviously has not been much of a concern even to Catholic rural voters. Times are changing, even in Bavaria!

[Tender Branson]

New ZDF projection:

[Tender Branson]

New ARD one:

[minionofmidas]

Munich on 58 precincts (out of 939)
CSU 35.8 (+4.1), SPD 34.6 (+6.4), Greens 10.4 (-4.0), FDP 4.9 (-7.7), FW 4.6 (+0.5)

I thought the changes figures would be meaningful by now even though the topline figures aren't... then I doublechecked, and it seems they're comparing whatever's in with the citywide 2008 totals. Toss.

[minionofmidas]

However the first vs second votes comparison, that is worth something.

On 82 precincts

First vote CSU 34.8, SPD 32.5, Greens 11.8
Second vote SPD 37.1, CSU 34.8, Greens 10.4

[Hans-im-Glück]

However the first vs second votes comparison, that is worth something.

On 82 precincts

First vote CSU 34.8, SPD 32.5, Greens 11.8
Second vote SPD 37.1, CSU 34.8, Greens 10.4

First and second vote can be in Bavaria very different. Look at my constituency (Kulmbach/Wunsiedel)
http://www.landkreis-wunsiedel.de/data/wahlen/wahlen/Landtagswahl_2013/479000_000093/index.html

[Tender Branson]

64% say Ude (SPD) better belongs to Munich (he's the mayor there) and not to Bavaria.

Basically tells you everything ...

[minionofmidas]

Wow; Mr Schöffel is not personally popular.

I was looking for a random provincial partial result, and Wunsiedel just to the south is over 80% counted and currently at
CSU 55.9 / 55.6 (+8.6 / +7.
SPD 17.9 / 19.5 (-0.1 / +0.7)
FW 12.8 / 11.1 (-2.0 / -3.1)

The others are really irrelevant; the Greens remain at around 4%, the FDP had just over 5% list votes last time and is in eightth place for the list and 10th (out of 11) for direct right now.

[minionofmidas]

The pattern of big SPD list gains at the Greens' expense in Munich, well outside the statewide trend and not extending to direct votes (the Greens' list vote is crashing to the level of their direct vote, basically) is certainly holding.