2013 Elections in Germany

[ERvND]

Why is the CDU so strong in Sachsen relative to the rest of the former GDR?

...

Your explanation is comprehensible. The CDU's strenght - and, even more so, the SPD's weakness - in Saxony is still remarkable.

Looking at the history of Saxony, the state has always been the stronghold of Socialist, Social Democratic and, later on, Communist parties. In the 19th century, there were times when almost half of the SPD's total FPTP seats were won in Saxony. After 1918, the state was a stronghold of the Communist party, while the SPD was still very powerful there. This trend seemed to continue after 1949, when most members of the Communist political elite were Saxons.

So, in 1990 almost everyone was convinced the SPD would continue to dominate a democratic Saxony. This didn't happen, however. You named some of the reasons, and of course, political changes and major shifts happen. Nevertheless, I'm baffled by the extent of this shift. In Saxony, the SPD is not only weak, but close to extinction. They hardly hang on to 10% of the vote, making it their worst state by far, even worse than Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg. In regions like the Erzgebirge, where the SPD enjoyed 66%+ majorities pre 1933, they have completely vanished today. Of course the Linke (originally PDS) took some of this vote, but in general, this region is overwhelmingly Conservative and CDU-dominated by now. Still a bit of a mystery to me.  

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This topic comes up here on a fairly regular basis; I'll dig out some old posts later (or someone else will or something). But basically the issue is that pre-1933 SPD strength in Saxony was based on the Party subculture (which was deeply embedded - to an almost remarkable extent - in some parts of Saxony; Leipzig and surrounds especially, though the pin up for it would be Freital at the other end of the state), something that was completely eliminated by over five decades of dictatorship. And it's also worth noting that while the SPD held up better in parts of Saxony than just about anywhere else in Germany during the early 30s, in some other parts (for which read: the Erzgebirge and the Vogtland) they completely collapsed.

[Tender Branson]

Bavaria to hold regional German vote September 15

Voters in Germany's southern state of Bavaria will go to the polls on September 15, officials said Friday, meaning the ballot will be one week before the expected date for general elections.

Coalition partners in the southern region's government agreed the date because they wanted their ballot to be held independently from the national vote, two leading state deputies said.

The exact date for federal elections, which will see Chancellor Angela Merkel fight for a third four-year term, is still uncertain but coalition lawmakers are expected to discuss it next week.

At the end of November, a government source told AFP that the majority of the country's 16 states had agreed on September 22 for the federal vote.

The opposition Social Democrats want the elections at federal level as well as in Bavaria and another regional vote in western Hesse state to all take place on the same day.

http://www.expatica.com/de/news/german-news/bavaria-to-hold-regional-german-vote-september-15_256783.html

[Tender Branson]

Let's hope our election is on the 29th then ...

I would not like it if it falls on the same date as Germany or Bavaria.

[Franknburger]

Why is the CDU so strong in Sachsen relative to the rest of the former GDR?

...

Your explanation is comprehensible. The CDU's strenght - and, even more so, the SPD's weakness - in Saxony is still remarkable.

Looking at the history of Saxony, the state has always been the stronghold of Socialist, Social Democratic and, later on, Communist parties. In the 19th century, there were times when almost half of the SPD's total FPTP seats were won in Saxony. After 1918, the state was a stronghold of the Communist party, while the SPD was still very powerful there. This trend seemed to continue after 1949, when most members of the Communist political elite were Saxons.

So, in 1990 almost everyone was convinced the SPD would continue to dominate a democratic Saxony. This didn't happen, however. You named some of the reasons, and of course, political changes and major shifts happen. Nevertheless, I'm baffled by the extent of this shift. In Saxony, the SPD is not only weak, but close to extinction. They hardly hang on to 10% of the vote, making it their worst state by far, even worse than Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg. In regions like the Erzgebirge, where the SPD enjoyed 66%+ majorities pre 1933, they have completely vanished today. Of course the Linke (originally PDS) took some of this vote, but in general, this region is overwhelmingly Conservative and CDU-dominated by now. Still a bit of a mystery to me.   

You have as well to consider socio-economic changes. Mining (and with it strong labour unions) used to be the main pre-WW II occupation in much of the Erzgebirge. After unification, with closing-down uranium mining and processing, it has almost completely disappeared. Also, while the (traditionally strongly unionised) automotive industry is still relevant in Saxony, it is far smaller (leaner) nowadays than it used to be before WW II.

Furthermore, as across most of the East, medium scale cities are still suffering heavy population losses The population of Görlitz. e.g., which was close to 100,000 before WW II, has decreased to 78,000 in 1989 and to less than 55,000 now. Even Chemnits, Saxony's third largest city, has gone down from 347,000 inhabitants in 1939 and 310,000 inhabitants iin 1988 to some 243,000 inhabitants today (though it is now starting to slightly gain population again). Thus, most districts are much more rural / smalltown nowadays than they used to be before the war.

The SPD still has reasoable potential in the large cities - unless, of course, it has, as member of a grand coalition, driven protest voters en masse to the Linke, as happened in 2009. For reference, here are the combined red-red and black-yellow shares for the large cities (PV, 2009 Federal):

Leipzig I:  Red-red 43.5, Black-yellow 42.8, Green 8.9
Keipzig II: Red-red 44.8, Blaxk-yellow 38, Green 14.7
Chemnitz: Red-red 45.7, Black-yellow 42.2, Green 7.1
Dresdem I: Red-red 37.7, Black-yellow 47.5, Green 10.9

Last but not least, while in most other States in the East, the CDU on a local level to a good extent maintained continuity with the old GDR CDU, Kurt Biedenkopf in Saxony strongly encouraged CDU modernisation and integration of the GDR's protest movement, and managed to have some high-ranking members of Bündnis 90 / Die Grüne joining the CDU. This has lead to Saxony's CDU being much more liberal and "green" than most other state parties. Consequently, Grüne support has until recently remained  below levels that could be expected in such an urbanised state, especially considering that Saxony has been the 'homeland' of  East Germany's peaceful revolution. This, in turn, has deprived the SPD of a potential local-level coalition partner and supplier of split votes for FPTP seats.

[Franknburger]

New Poll, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (for ZDF), 25.01.13:

Party lean - the pure, unedited raw polling stuff (Changes againt Jan 11, 2013)

CDU       45 (-4)
SPD       31 (+4)
Grüne     13 ()
FDP        2 ()
Linke      5 (+1)
Piraten    2 ()
others     2 (-1)

Steinbück-gaffe SPD-dip / CDU bounce ebbs away, FDP core support stays at 2%.


And their projection (the edited version)

CDU       41 (-1)
SPD       29 (+1)
Grüne     13 ()
FDP        4 ()
Linke      6 ()
Piraten   3 ()
others    4 ()

So their projection is essentially shifting 2% CDU 'loan votes' to FDP. 1% from SPD to Linke, 2% from CDU to "others" (NPD, Freie Wähler), and 1% from SPD to Piraten (dont ask me why!)

[Benj]

Could this be a problem for CDU in FPTP seats?
http://www.spiegel.de/international/bild-878468-449405.html

Could perhaps be a problem for the Left, actually.

After all, both the NPD and the Left compete for the anti-establishment/anti-mainstream protest vote in the eastern states.

Given the polling, it hardly looks like the Left is in any position to retain its FPTP seats outside of East Berlin anyway, no?

[Franknburger]

Further results from the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll:

Which majority do you expect after the next federal election ?
Black-yellow     39
Red-green        33
None of these   28

Should CDU/ CSU support the FDP (CDU/CSU leaners only) ?
Xes                  22
No                   41
Don't care        34

Quick calculation: 45% CDU voters * 22% "support FDP" * 35% that will actually 'loan' their vote (Lower Saxony level) = 3.5% FDP loan votes (which would be sufficient to lift them above 5%).

The new leadership duo Rösler / Brüderly will affect the FDP:
Positively      19
Negatively    17
No impact     53

Prefered Coalition:
SPD/Grüne    29 (+8)
CDU / SPD    22  (-6)
CDU/FPD      17  (+6)

17% believe the Pirates will make it into the next Bundestag
28% think the Linke still has a function in the West
7% of respondents will definitely not vote (down from 11% two weeks ago and 13% in December!) 12% are unsure (-1).

http://www.zdf.de/Politbarometer/Sonntagsfrage-FDP-nicht-im-Bundestag-26315690.html

[Franknburger]

Could this be a problem for CDU in FPTP seats?
http://www.spiegel.de/international/bild-878468-449405.html

Could perhaps be a problem for the Left, actually.

After all, both the NPD and the Left compete for the anti-establishment/anti-mainstream protest vote in the eastern states.

Given the polling, it hardly looks like the Left is in any position to retain its FPTP seats outside of East Berlin anyway, no?

I would not exclude Linke FPTP seats for Eastern Brandenburg, where CDU & FDP are traditionally weak, and Linke is mainly competing with SPD for FPTP. Especially if pre-election polls suggest that black-yellow could gain a majority should Linke fail to make it into the Bundestag,, SPD / Grüne / Piraten voters might be inclined to support the Linke candidate for tactical reasons. Some CDU, but especially FDP voters OTOH may vote SPD FPTP to prevent this.

Looking into the districts in question, I also came across some interesting vote-splitting patterns. Essentially, the vote was straight-ticket for all parties, with the following exceptions (districts from north to south):

• Uckermark: Some 1.5% CDU/FDP ticket-spltting, Pirates (2% PV) split their FPTP vote equally on SPD and Linke
• Märkisch Oderland: 2% CDU/FPD, 2% SPD/FPD, 1% Linke/Grüne, Pirates (2.7% PV) overwhelmingly Linke for FPTP
• Frankfurt / Oder: SPD/FPD  1.4%, Pirates (2.5 % PV) overwhelmingly Linke for FPTP
• Cottbus; SPD/CDU 0.3%, SPD/FPD 0.3%, SPD/Pirates 2.3%, Linke/Grüne 0.3%, Linke/Pirates 0.6%

Interestingly, NPD and DVU PV voters have almost unanimously voted for the NPD candidate. Looks like a pretty hardcore followership (slightly below 4% in each of the districts) which will hardly swing elsewhere, but at best stay home the next time.
On this observation, I also checked Mecklenburg-Vorpommern - here the NPD FPTP vote even tended to slightly surpass their PV vote, while the opposite holds true for CDU.

Another insteresting district is Altmark (northwestern Sachsen-Anhalt, close to the Gorleben proposed nuclear waste dump). Here it is essentially CDU vs. Linke. As Grüne and Linke have traditionally united on anti-nuclear protest in adjacent Lower Saxony, the small but growing Grüne followership may decide to support the Linke candidate. 2009 split votes: CDU/FPD 1%, CDU/DVU 0.2%, SPD/FPD 2%, SPD/Pirates 1%, SPD/Grüne 0.5%, Linke/Grüne 1%.

[Yeahsayyeah]

The mayoral election of Leipzig, Germany's 11th largest town with nowadays a tendency of growth for years, will be held the 27th of January, which is actually tomorrow. A possible 2nd round - if no candidate reaches an outright majority would be held on 17th of February.

In the second round all candidates could compete again (as in Baden-Württemberg) - most people don't know that and think it's a runoff of the first two. Who gets the most votes, wins, even if it ist not a majority of 50 percent.

Mayors in Saxony are elected for seven-year-terms, which is an awful long period IMO. So the last election was in 2006, when former Mayor Wolfgang Tiefensee (SPD), who was reelected with 2005 in a landslide, went to Berlin to become Federal Minister/ Secretary of Transportation.

Burkhard Jung, former head of the local social and youth authority (I don't know how to translate "Dezernent für Jugend und Soziales" to English properly), won in the second round with 41.6 percent. Turnout was at 31.9 percent.

All mayors since 1990 have been members of the SPD. They allways polled between 40 and 50 percent in the first round - except for Tiefensee 2005 who 67 percent.
There are six candidates

Burkhard Jung (SPD, Incumbent)
Horst Wawrzinsky (CDU, until recently police president of Leipzig)
Barbara Höll (Linke, Member of the Bundestag, also a candidate in the election of 2005)
Felix Ekhardt (Grüne, scientist - environment and sustainability stuff)
René Hobusch (FDP, lawyer)
Dirk Feitertag (supported by the Pirates, lawyer with some social activism)

Biggest campaign seems how to deal with the high demand for day care centers and schools (as many young people migrate to Leipzig and found there families here there has been a continuing Baby boom for years after in the 90s many day care centers and schools were closed down.

There were also some scandals relating the city beaurocracy - e. g. they have been illegally selling houses with unknown owners too cheap which is near dispossession for years - well it's hard to put in only one sentence.
The CEO the local waterworks illegaly burned several hundred millions of Euros in high risk financial products. But Jung tried (and until know succeeded) not to get connected with this. Also there was a large media camapign in the only local newspaper that the local authorities were too mild agains drug abusers in Leipzig an that there was to much crime related to this.


Jung ist trying his first term as a full success, saying that the jobless rate is split by half and this would be his accomplishment - and many investors (logistics, automotive industry, biotechnologies) and tourists are coming to Leipzig. Well, we all know that stuff when there is no real political platform to run on.

When the CDU nominated Horst all feared a hard law and order camaign - related to the drugs and securitiy thing. There were some strange police actions in the last months like big raids in public parks (so called "Komplexkontrollen") and an police assault at a kindergarden in Connewitz claiming to go after drug criminals - but actially as a campaigner there were no such undertones. So actually he wants to do all what Jung does, but better.

Barbara Höll mainly is a federal politician and not that much of a local figure as though she ist from Leipzig. Her platform has more to do with federal than will local policies. She got around 15 per cent in 2005 and she will propably will get there again.

Felix Ekardt is an interesting figure as a person but mainly unknown. The Greens
made some self-ironic campaign posters and flyers that actually seemed to irritate some people. Platform is typically Green: transparency, environmental stuff, more money for children (new day care centers and schools etc.)).

Hobusch is at typicial FDP guy.

Feiertag ist a lawyer for social law who has a social justice, building of day care centers, transparency and ticket-free transportation platform.


Voting ethusiasm seems to be very low - which is a result of the so called "Leipziger Modell" to let participate the big parties proportionally in the local government and having now coalitions and making the decision making and responsibilities intransparent - but also of the candidates all percieved as weak contenders.

So Jung, though many people don't like him as he stand for nothing, will probably win. One local newspaper poll from 2nd of January - so actually shortly after Christmas and befor the main campaign - had him at 55% with Horst at 21, Höll at 12, Ekardt and Feiertag at 4 and Hobusch at zero.

[ERvND]

[Saxony]

That's a lot of interesting information. Thank you.

[Franzl]

Emnid, 27.01.2013, Federal Election:



CDU/CSU: 41%
SPD: 27%
Grüne: 13%
Linke: 7%

FDP: 4%
Piraten: 4%

Black short of a majority (41-47).
Red-green short of a majority (40-48).

[minionofmidas]

The opposition Social Democrats want the elections at federal level as well as in Bavaria and another regional vote in western Hesse state to all take place on the same day.

The state government here has had a look at the federal polls and the state polls and now agrees with the opposition.

Damn, I kind of liked our mid-winter campaigs.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Polls in Leipzig have closed some minutes ago. Up-to-date results can be found at the world wide web: (I'm not allowed to post links).

leipzig.de/de/buerger/politik/wahlen/obm/2013/wahlergebnis-24701.aspx

Turnout is higher then in 2006 (around 41 per cent).

[Franzl]

Polls in Leipzig have closed some minutes ago. Up-to-date results can be found at the world wide web: (I'm not allowed to post links).

leipzig.de/de/buerger/politik/wahlen/obm/2013/wahlergebnis-24701.aspx

Turnout is higher then in 2006 (around 41 per cent).

www.leipzig.de/de/buerger/politik/wahlen/obm/2013/wahlergebnis-24701.aspx

[ObserverIE]

So Jung, though many people don't like him as he stand for nothing, will probably win. One local newspaper poll from 2nd of January - so actually shortly after Christmas and befor the main campaign - had him at 55% with Horst at 21, Höll at 12, Ekardt and Feiertag at 4 and Hobusch at zero.

SPD 40.2 CDU 25.9 Die Linke 15.3 Grüne 9.8 Feiertag 6.9 FDP 1.8.

At least the FDP managed to exceed expectations.

[minionofmidas]

Means a second round of voting in two weeks. Unless they changed the law, all the past candidates can stand again if they want to, but a majority won't be required then.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Actually the 2nd round is in three weeks (seems to have to do with the February vacations). This could get quite interesting if there was some "All but Horst and Jung"-Movement at the left. Greens, Linke and semi-pirate Feiertag together got 32 per cent.

Greens and Linke both have party meetings on Tuesday how to deal with this.

And we now know that the Leipziger Volkszeitung did a junk poll.

[Yeahsayyeah]

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FDP guy Hobusch claimed a "quite good" result and at the same time told, SPD result was a "total desaster" (Jung gut more than twenty times the votes of Hobusch).

[Zanas]

What kind of incentive could the SPD offer die Linke or the Greens, or even Pirate-ish guy, to withdraw from second round and endorse them instead ? Since I recall you telling the city council was in any case made up of members of every party in proportion of what they got ?

[Yeahsayyeah]

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Mabe some policy-driven projects like "a stronger effort at building day care centers and schools" with an accurate plan with numbers or doing something at the culture budget or having more transparency or whatever. But this all would be officialy unofficial as people don't like such deals. Höll (Linke) said today that she wants to participate in the second term. Feiertag ist too much anti-establishment to deal with Jung. I really don't know what the Greens will do (missed their election party because of a cold).

[Franknburger]

The empire strikes back (sort of)

As the Steinbrück-gaffe hype is ebbing away, the next non-story makes its round in German media and on the internet. Rainer Brüderle, freshly appointed FDP top-candate, is being accused of sexist comments to a female journalist.

The event happened already one year ago, but has only been published by the STERN magazine last week. Convenienrly, Sunday evening politics talk show host Günther Jauch (who happens to also moderate "STERN TV on Wednesday evenings) made it an issue in yesterday's show.

From what I have read, a femalle journalst joined Brüderle at a hotel bar for informal background talks on the evening of a FDP convention. As Brüderle enjoyed  several glasses of wine, he started to comment on the journalist's cleavage, asked for dances, gave hand-kisses, etc., until a member of his staff had to call him to bed. The event itself is pretty banal, but it is being used to characterise Brüderle as old-fashioned male politician who disregards women in their intellectual and professional capabilites. Brüderle has so far declined to comment, but almost everybody else, including several of his party memebrs, had something to say ...

In a follow-up, female members of the Pirates have also been discussing perceived sexist attitudes of their male co-members (over 30.000 twitter feeds so far!).

[jaichind]

INSA poll for Bild

CDU/CSU          40
FDP                    5
SPD                  28
Greens             15

Still finding out what Left got, but FDP is past 5.  It is unlikely that CDU/CSU/FDP will end up with majority.

[Tender Branson]

Germany (and likely Hesse) to officially vote on Sept. 22:

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http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/wahltermin-bundestagswahl-findet-am-22-september-statt-a-880338.html

...

So, basically we now have:

15.09. - Bavaria
22.09. - Germany and Hesse (?)
29.09. - Austria (?)

[Franknburger]

Germany (and likely Hesse) to officially vote on Sept. 22:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/wahltermin-bundestagswahl-findet-am-22-september-statt-a-880338.html

...

So, basically we now have:

15.09. - Bavaria
22.09. - Germany and Hesse (?)
29.09. - Austria (?)

I have already for some time been thinking about the "51st state"comment -but now you relally deserve it