2013 Elections in Germany

[Franknburger]

Polls will close at 18:00 CE summer time. The first projections will be aired just minutes after. As tight as it looks now, however, it will most likely become midnight or later until the final outcome is clear (at least that was how long it took in 2002).
The first location to report was traditionally Hallig Gröde, a small island off the west coast of Schleswig-Holstein, with some 10 registered voters. However, I just read on Wikipedia that they will this year fully vote by mail, with counting done on the mainland, and no separate results reported for the island. As such, the next smallest polling districts, namely Ammeldingen/ Our, and Gemünd/Our, both located on the Loxembourg border, will probably this time be the first to report.

[Keystone Phil]

Ugh. I'll still be watching City-United at noon so I'll miss the first projection (then Napoli at 2:45 so I can't monitor results during the rest of the afternoon) but if the real result won't be known until 6 PM my time, that's good.

[ERvND]

My final prediction:

CDU/CSU: 39-40%
This time, the relatively high numbers will hold. Given Merkel's enormous popularity, CDU/CSU has an even higher potential (around 45%), but FDP and AfD will eat into their numbers.

SPD: 24,5-25,5%
As usual for the SPD, their small surge in the last polls won't materialize into real votes. Their main problem is - again - that nobody has a real reason to vote SPD; so all that's left are some pensioners who vote SPD by tradition.

Greens: 9,5-10,5%
They are fighting against a big momentum, but in the year 2013, the Greens have stabilized at a level where their base voters already make up 9-10%. I don't think they will drop much lower.

The Left: 8,5-9,5%
Their heyday is clearly over, but former SPD voters are stubborn and will keep faith with the Left.

FDP: 7,5-8,5%
Still a big loss in comparison to 2009, but loan votes will push them over 5% easily. If it wasn't for the AfD, I'd see them at 10%.

AfD: 2,5-3,5%
A decent result, but far from reaching the 5%. German voters, especially on the federal level, are simply too timid and and conservative to shake up the whole party system. Moreover, Merkel's euro strategy is vastly popular, so no real reason for a protest vote.

Pirates: 2-2,5%
The hype is as over as it gets. They'll get their base vote, which is around 2%, and that's about it.

Others: ca. 3%


Result:
CDU/CSU-FDP: 46,5-48,5%
SPD-Greens-Left: 42,5-45,5%
Black-yellow reelected easily.

[Beezer]

I really have to disagree with your "Merkel's euro policy is vastly popular" comment. Yes, most people are kind of ok with it (at least compared to what Red-Green might have done) but that doesn't mean they think it's the right course of action. Of course it's always foolish to base projections on personal conversations but I've spoken to plenty of people who have traditionally voted CDU or FDP and they will support the AfD this time around. They could still change their mind at the last moment but I really do believe the party in general has enough momentum to make it into the Bundestag.

[minionofmidas]

Wait just a damn minute. This Euro-skeptic party might siphon off enough votes that the center-right bloc might come in second to the left bloc? Really? What a horrible country. Honest to God.

There is no left bloc except in voters' minds.

[minionofmidas]

Here is my guess where some of the "others" vote may go: Die PARTEI - Partei für Arbeit, Tierschutz, Eliteförderung und basisdemokratische Initiative (Party for Labour, Animal Protection, Promotion of Elites, and grass-roots Initiative - acronym PARTY). Created in 2004 by the satirical magazine TITANIC, it originally got attention by calling for re-erecting the Berlin Wall, and turning former East Germany into a large-scale smoking area. Their election slogan is "Inhalte überwinden" "Overcome content".

A few election posters:

Saw this one on my way to the supermarket this morning.
"Greens : Hands off our children!" (well, fingers, literally). The small print then declares TITANIC Chefredakteur Leo Fischer (pictured) "Candidate and concerned father" - and then, just so no one accidentally takes it seriously, "A child is not a touch screen!"

I'm over in the other constituency, but I think the PARTEI will get my direct vote. The sinking polls, the ugly deceitful campaign on this very issue, and the end of all hopes for the Pirates have jointly won the Greens my Bundestag list vote over this last week.

[ERvND]

(at least compared to what Red-Green might have done)

That's exactly the point. It's the biggest joke of this election that SPD and Greens are unpopular because of something they might have done hypothetically. In the end, voters will think of this and vote for Merkel as the "lesser evil".

[Franknburger]

(at least compared to what Red-Green might have done)

That's exactly the point. It's the biggest joke of this election that SPD and Greens are unpopular because of something they might have done hypothetically. In the end, voters will think of this and vote for Merkel as the "lesser evil".

I disagree. SPD and Greens are unpopular because they haven't been able to shatter the myth of "Merkel is steering us safely through this crisis". They haven't really attacked Merkel's swaying ("no taxpayer money is at risk - aside from our share in the European Central Bank, which continues buying Greek bonds, and the money we will have to put in in 2015"). They haven't made the point that a common currency implies financial transfers from the centre to the periphery - as it is being done in Germany for decades ("Länderfinanzausgleich"). They haven't criticised the overly focus on fiscal instead of structural indicators for Greece, etc.

As to the AfD: FG Wahlen is regularly polling the sentiment towards the EU. The last time they did it, in June, 25% felt the EU bringing more disadvantages than advantages for Germany. In May 2010, at the height of the Euro crisis, it was 38%. These figures give an indication of a eurosceptic party's vote potential, and make me believe that, once AfD has reached the point where they may get into the Bundestag, they will easily find the additional voters required to lift them over 5%.

[Keystone Phil]

Wait just a damn minute. This Euro-skeptic party might siphon off enough votes that the center-right bloc might come in second to the left bloc? Really? What a horrible country. Honest to God.

There is no left bloc except in voters' minds.

You're right. Sorry. I meant far left bloc.

[Beezer]

(at least compared to what Red-Green might have done)

That's exactly the point. It's the biggest joke of this election that SPD and Greens are unpopular because of something they might have done hypothetically. In the end, voters will think of this and vote for Merkel as the "lesser evil".

But isn't every election about hypotheticals? All you can is judge a government and compare it to the proposals of the opposition, which has quite frequently lambasted Merkel for not being European enough.

[Tender Branson]

My final prediction:

38.8% [+5.0] CDU/CSU
27.0% [+4.0] SPD
  8.6%  [-3.3] Left
  8.5%  [-2.2] Greens
  5.1% [+5.1] AfD
  5.0%  [-9.6] FDP (above threshold, something like 5.04 or so)
  2.1% [+0.1] Pirates
  1.3% [+1.3] FW
  1.1%  [-0.4] NPD
  2.5% Others (none of those with more than 1%)

Turnout: 73.4% (+2.6%)

The percentages for every party should be within +/- 0.5% of the final result (at least I hope so).

[buritobr]

Average of Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Forsa, Allensbach, TNS Emnid

CDU/CSU: 39,50%
SPD: 26,50%
Grünen: 9,25%
Linke: 8,75%
FDP: 5,25%

Schwarz-gelb: 44,75%
Rot-rot-grün: 44,50%

[Tender Branson]

Why does the CDU have English Angie gear ?

For the English speaking immigrants turned voters ?

[Hifly]

I've seen loads of those "Keep Calm and...." t-shirts in Germany. The underlying message is easily understood.

[Senator Cris]

Link for the scrutiny of tomorrow (with data by region)?

[jaichind]

Prediction

CDU/CSU              37.5
FDP                        6.5
-------------------------------
                            44.0

SPD                      27.0
Green                    8.5
Linke                     9.0     
-------------------------------
                            44.5

AfD                        5.0
Pirate                    2.5
Other                    4.0   
------------------------------
                           11.5

AfD goes over 5% threshold.  Tactical voting pushes FDP to 6.5%

Result:  CDU/CSU-SPD grand coalition

[ERvND]

Against widespread expectations, election night won't be exciting, but one of the most boring ever. FDP over and AfD under 5% will soon be clear, and the black-yellow majority will hold for the whole evening. You can just watch the 18 o'clock prognosis and go to bed afterwards.

[minionofmidas]

The percentages for every party should be within +/- 0.5% of the final result (at least I hope so).

Sheer hubris. Nobody can predict German results with that degree of accuracy - polling all registered voters four days out wouldn't get you that close to the result.


It's long been assumed that the FDP ever exiting parliament would lead to its fairly quick disappearance. Now, back in 1998, that was certainly true. But if the FDP's exit leads to a Grand Coalition... lots of room for it to make a convincing comeback. It would probably end all notion of it being a party of the "centre", of course - it would be clearly positioning itself to the CDU's right (where, really, it was in the 2005 and 2009 campaigns already).

[jaichind]

The ideal scenario for FDP on the long run is for AfD to fail to pass 5%, FDP to pass 5% but CDU/CSU+FDP to fall below SPD+Greens+Linke.  This way a CDU/CSU-SPD government is form and FDP can be the anti-establishment opposition party on the Right like it was in 2005-2009 while AfD fades away.  BTW, this is also the scenario I suspect Linke would prefer as well as it can be the anti-establishment party of the Left.  Both FDP and Linke can scoop up the anti-incumbent support.  

If FDP barely makes it past 5% I am not sure it can survive another 5 years in government when the next German government will have to make a lot of touch choices where there are not a lot of good solution but only trade-offs.

[Vosem]

Final Prediction:
CDU/CSU 39.4
SPD 27.0
Gruene 9.0
Linke 8.9
FDP 5.5
AfD 4.4
Piraten 2.0
Sonstige 3.8

CDU/CSU/FDP 44.9
SPD/Gruene/Linke 44.9

My prediction is that whether the CDU/CSU/FDP has gotten a majority or not will be unclear for some time after the election, but that ultimately Merkel will be forced back into a Grand Coalition (although one where she is more decisively the senior partner than in 2005-2009).

[minionofmidas]

Lol, just saw this pointed out: If you're in the precinct by 6pm, you can still cast your vote.

There's nothing in the law text banning you from going in, checking the 6pm prognosis via smartphone, and only then casting your vote. If you're unsure about your preferred party making it over 5%.

[Viewfromthenorth]

Lol, just saw this pointed out: If you're in the precinct by 6pm, you can still cast your vote.

There's nothing in the law text banning you from going in, checking the 6pm prognosis via smartphone, and only then casting your vote. If you're unsure about your preferred party making it over 5%.

Yep. It's the case in most democracies that "closing time" simply means "time at which you can't get in line anymore". I've wondered about that sometimes.

[jaichind]

Lol, just saw this pointed out: If you're in the precinct by 6pm, you can still cast your vote.

There's nothing in the law text banning you from going in, checking the 6pm prognosis via smartphone, and only then casting your vote. If you're unsure about your preferred party making it over 5%.

Yes.  Of course this trick is not scaleable.  If enough people do this then the exit polls loses their relative accuracy.  So this only works if a very small portion of the voters does this.  In which case the cases where this will make a difference will only be when a party is very close to 5%.

[Tender Branson]

The percentages for every party should be within +/- 0.5% of the final result (at least I hope so).

Sheer hubris. Nobody can predict German results with that degree of accuracy - polling all registered voters four days out wouldn't get you that close to the result.

People win jackpots in the lottery too, so everything is possible ...

[Tender Branson]

First reports indicate that turnout is on par with 2005, when it was ca. 78% Germany-wide.