NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[S019]

For Phil Murphy to even have a chance at losing there needs to be an unpopular Democratic President, who causes a recession

Even then, it would be Very Likely/Safe D

[S019]

I think Murphy is more vulnerable in a primary than re-election. This stays at Likely D.

[S019]

Unless dropped by the county committees (or redistricted together), no NJ incumbents will ever get primaried.

If Norcross goes through with his threats, it's possible.

[S019]

I wouldn't even be surprised if Norcross urged him to switch to position him for a run against Murphy.

A Republican from Cape May isn't winning a New Jersey gubernatorial election against a Democratic incumbent.

He's got a great shot in a Biden midterm if the South Jersey machine is behind him.

Why would Norcross cross sides to endorse a Republican, that probably puts him at odds with Sweeney and his brother, wouldn't putting a primary challenger forth make more sense?

[S019]

NJ could certainly be a close race in a Biden midterm, and yes the NJ GOP is much less prone to nominating crazies compared to its counterparts in CO and VA. Also, I have suspicions that a sizable amount of Democratic suburban voters may still be swing voters in gubernatorial races, especially those places that swung hard against Trump, when compared to Romney. As others have said, taxes is a major statewide issue and that plays into the GOP's hands. Even with Christie's abysmal ratings, Guadagno did better percentage-wise than Trump did in 2016. Also NJ has a long tradition of moderate Republicans (Kean Sr., Wittman, Christie), and someone like Van Drew, Kean Jr., etc. could easily pick up that mantle. There is a reason why a NJ Democratic governor hasn't been re-elected since 1977. I still think Murphy wins in the end, but this race is not Safe D, like the consensus seems to be.

[S019]

Interesting that Don Guardian and Nancy Munoz haven’t been mentioned.

Guardian lost reelection as mayor of Atlantic City to a corrupt Democrat Frank Gillam, who has ethical problems and had to resign due to corruption.

Guardian may be too liberal for the NJGOP, he is openly gay. While Guardian would be the typical Northeastern Republican, socially liberal, economically conservative, he lives in Toms River now where he is a Business Administrator.

Munoz has no real accomplishments; she succeeded her late husband Eric Munoz in 2009.

Harsh Singh is the one who can give Murphy the toughest challenge, he is a minority, Ciattarelli is probably best suited for a run in NJ-07 or NJ-11 in 2022, and Steinhardt is probably going to win the nomination and lose by 3-5 points.

Lean D for now.

Being too liberal really shouldn't be too much of an issue in a New Jersey primary, I don't think we're at the point yet where like all of the northern suburbanites who switched to voting D changed their registration. But Guardian is from the south, and the more conservative Republicans in the state do hail from there. Also NJ-11 will not even be winnable in 2022, the seat is going to become anchored by Montclair, Livingston, and the rest of West Essex's blue suburbs, and probably drop the more heavily conservative towns such as those in eastern Morris to a new sink, which will probably be the 7th. An interesting dynamic here will be the primary, Sweeney has still refused to endorse Murphy I believe, as has Norcross, either of them running or backing a significant primary challenge could weaken Murphy, but the current crop of candidates is just not that impressive. I expect Murphy to win by high single digits to low double digits in the end.

[S019]

I just voted, voted straight D and no on Q1 and yes on Q2.

[S019]

Essex is only 20% in and Hudson is 50% in, I want that to come in more before I declare Murphy's campaign to be over.