The likelist imo is a 3-1 incumbent protection. Dems will want to shore up KS-03, and Rs will have to make a deal thanks to Kelly being Governor.
Map:
Stats:
KS-01:
Trump +43.5
Kobach +12.5
KS-02:
Trump +28.2
Kobach +3.6
KS-03:
Clinton +14.8
Kelly +34.0
KS-04:
Trump +28.6
Kobach +2.2
Two issues that I have comments before to someone just copying the 538 map:
Davids lives in Shawnee and Watkins in Topeka. Both are drawn out.
Once you correct for this, it becomes easier to link Lawrence through Johnson than cut Leavenworth.
Doing both of these things produces maps similar to the ones I posted above, depending on the communities you prefer to observe.
1. The legislature doesn't really like Watkins either way though, he has few allies.
2. The part of Shawnee where Davids is is in the district, I believe
