What 2000 states are you most worried about your canidate losing?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Rural NOVA has like 5% of the state's population.  I really don't see Bush winning the same kind of margins he had in 2000 in the Hampton Roads area again this time.  He may squeak by with 50.01% or something but definately not the 55% he had in 2000 in some counties.

Every vote counts... however the Warner machine in rural South VA should be able to overcome that...
Hampton Roads is the area East of Richmond with the indented coastline isn't it?

[classical liberal]

The GOP probably won't spend anything at all in VA.  The Dems will.  With Gov. Warner's machine's GOTV in Southern VA and the Dems' surprisingly extant ad campaign in NOVA, the turnout and the shifting philosophy in the DC metro area from the Old South to the New England Corridor will screw the GOP.  Todays Post had an article about the demographic changes and the massive growth in NOVA.  Plus the Coal country in SW VA that will come back to the Dems with W VA coal country.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The GOP probably won't spend anything at all in VA.  The Dems will.

Surely trying to hang onto a vunerable state that could decide the election would mean spending as much money as possible? Virginia as the WV of 2004?

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Good points.

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I read that:

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Most predictable trend this election

[angus]

yes, robert e. lee's immediate homeland is DNC country.

Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.  n'est-ce pas?

the anti-paradox

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

It would however not be wrong to conclude that Virginia is trending liberal through observation of the media and demographics.  The DC Metro area contains roughly 30% of the state's population.  Bush won the VA portion of the DC metro area in 2000 by like an aggregate 7%.  This time he's going to loose it by like 5%.  That's a 12% shift in like 1/3, or a 4% shift in the overall.  VA will be close this time.

True. I don't see Bush winning Fairfax County this year... His main hope of hanging on to VA is rural Northern Virginia, the Richmond Outer suburbs and Virginia Beach

I actually find it surprising that Bush won Fairfax county, and maybe it goes to show my ignorance of the VA burbs.  That's the thing about the DC Metro: Maryland people (like I was) hardly ever cross the Patomic.  The Maryland side (PG and Monty) has always been rabidly Democrat, so I've always assumed the the VA side was as well.  Maybe it's just history catching up with them.

Still see no way Bush loses VA in 2004.

[angus]

It would however not be wrong to conclude that Virginia is trending liberal through observation of the media and demographics.  The DC Metro area contains roughly 30% of the state's population.  Bush won the VA portion of the DC metro area in 2000 by like an aggregate 7%.  This time he's going to loose it by like 5%.  That's a 12% shift in like 1/3, or a 4% shift in the overall.  VA will be close this time.

True. I don't see Bush winning Fairfax County this year... His main hope of hanging on to VA is rural Northern Virginia, the Richmond Outer suburbs and Virginia Beach

I actually find it surprising that Bush won Fairfax county, and maybe it goes to show my ignorance of the VA burbs.  That's the thing about the DC Metro: Maryland people (like I was) hardly ever cross the Patomic.  The Maryland side (PG and Monty) has always been rabidly Democrat, so I've always assumed the the VA side was as well.  Maybe it's just history catching up with them.

Still see no way Bush loses VA in 2004.

if al or rwn find themselves in the sf bay area in November and have a thousand dollars that wants to turn into two thousand dollars, let them bring it with them.

[Gustaf]

yes, robert e. lee's immediate homeland is DNC country.

Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.  n'est-ce pas?

the anti-paradox

What is an anti-paradox?

[angus]

well, I suppose I'm making up words, but 'the opposite of a paradox' is what I was going for.  If I put you to sleep in 1859, and woke you up a hundred fifty years later, you'd say, look northern virginia is still dnc country.  that sort of thing.  "the more things change, the more they stay the same" is a common quebecois saying.

[NHPolitico]

New Hampshire. It's a lot less pro-OIF than other Bush states, I'd guess, in line with other states in this region.  Plus, it does help that Kerry is from MA.  I'm not terribly worried, but it wouldn't shock me if he lost NH.

[angus]

New Hampshire. It's a lot less pro-OIF than other Bush states, I'd guess, in line with other states in this region.  Plus, it does help that Kerry is from MA.  I'm not terribly worried, but it wouldn't shock me if he lost NH.

I'm a little slow today.  what's OIF?

[zachman]

Is it Operation Iraqi Freedom?

I'm most worried about Kerry losing Pennsylvania. After that I'd pick Wisconsin, then Michigan, followed by New Mexico. Iowa and Minnesota are slight concerns of mine. And that's about as far as it could go.

[angus]

yes, I see.  thank you.  I'd say NH based on the reasons NHpolitico mentions, and others.  for Kerry, I still say NM.

[zachman]

yes, I see.  thank you.  I'd say NH based on the reasons NHpolitico mentions, and others.  for Kerry, I still say NM.

NH is not a major loss for Bush. He should be concerned primarily with Florida, Ohio, Colorado,  Arizona, WV, and Nevada in that order. NH, although it is the most probable state to switch, would be far less significant.

[angus]

yes, I see.  thank you.  I'd say NH based on the reasons NHpolitico mentions, and others.  for Kerry, I still say NM.

NH is not a major loss for Bush. He should be concerned primarily with Florida, Ohio, Colorado,  Arizona, WV, and Nevada in that order. NH, although it is the most probable state to switch, would be far less significant.

florida?  arizona?  nevada?  pinch yourself just to make sure you're awake

[zachman]

The Western States would offset Bush if he did win Pennsylvania. I guess Nevada wouldn't be that major, but Arizona and Colorado would make it near impossible to win, unless Pennsylvania switches. It would kind of be like immunity for Kerry.

[agcatter]

Kerry people are dreaming if they think Colorado is in play.

[Rococo4]

I would think Bush would win, but he only had 51% in 2000 there...Colorado is a tough state to pinpoint because of the ever changing population shuffle there.  I think Senator Allards larger than expceted victory in the 2002 senate race showed this state is still Bush's to lose though.  All those burnouts out there in the mountain areas probably hate Bush, but I doubt hardly any of them will go out to vote because they will be busy doing other things that day

[Rococo4]

I would think Bush would win, but he only had 51% in 2000 there...Colorado is a tough state to pinpoint because of the ever changing population shuffle there.  I think Senator Allards larger than expceted victory in the 2002 senate race showed this state is still Bush's to lose though.  All those burnouts out there in the mountain areas probably hate Bush, but I doubt hardly any of them will go out to vote because they will be busy doing other things that day

well maybe not, i just looked 2000 results up...Gore only got 42%, Nader 5%.  I would think if nader gets on the ballot in CO he would get at least 3%.  Seeing Gore only got 42 makes me think Bush will almost for sure win barring a landslide against him

[opebo]

Kerry people are dreaming if they think Colorado is in play.

Or Arizona.

[Lunar]

Kerry people are dreaming if they think Colorado is in play.

It might not be as extreme as you would think.  Colorado wasn't won by much and Nader got 5% there.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Kerry people are dreaming if they think Colorado is in play.

That's true

[WalterMitty]

AL:  i respect your knowledge of virginia, but i think youre reading too much into the warner election.  first of all warner ran as a conservative.  the republicans were having trouble getting a budget passed.  allen and gilmore were blips on virginia's screen, the state has long history of democratic governors.

i certainly agree that the suburbs are trending democratic.  however, i see no evidence of southern virginia becoming democratic.  maybe the old conservative democrats are dying off, but there are a hell of a lot of republicans in the southside.

on the presidential level, dems in virginia can count on:
1. the coalfields
2. the black vote in southeast va
3. the dc suburbs

other than that, i dont see any trending towards the democrats.

im a virginia native and i remember very well how doug wilder wrecked the state.  he is largely responsible for the elections of gilmore and allen.

[Gustaf]

well, I suppose I'm making up words, but 'the opposite of a paradox' is what I was going for.  If I put you to sleep in 1859, and woke you up a hundred fifty years later, you'd say, look northern virginia is still dnc country.  that sort of thing.  "the more things change, the more they stay the same" is a common quebecois saying.

Ah, OK, now I'm with you.

[classical liberal]

on the presidential level, dems in virginia can count on:
1. the coalfields
2. the black vote in southeast va
3. the dc suburbs

Bush won regions 1 and 3 in 2000.  Without them he will loose.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

AL:  i respect your knowledge of virginia, but i think youre reading too much into the warner election.  first of all warner ran as a conservative.  the republicans were having trouble getting a budget passed.  allen and gilmore were blips on virginia's screen, the state has long history of democratic governors.

It's not so much the fact that he won... it's where he won that's interesting... and that the election came a few months after 9/11

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While there are a lot of Republicans in the Southside area (not as many as further north though) , my theory is that a lot of them used to be Conservative Dems and have switched there registration.

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Gore underperformed in 1 and 2

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The state has trended towards the Dems from the '80's certainly... All of the state seems to have done (VA used to be one of the most right wing states around. Not anymore).
I don't see either candidate winning by more than 5% this year.