Ireland Election 2007

[nemesis2004]

Update prediction at 4.00 am...

think it'll be:

FF   78
FG  51
LAB 20
PD   2
GP   6
SF   4
OTH 5

A lot depending on counts in Dublin South Central, Dublin North East for final figures. Bad night for LAB and SF..calamitous for PD!!!!

Yet as Garret Fitzgerald said on RTE Radio, if Kenny did so bad in the debate how come FG gained 20 seats???.....strange


And the outcome? Watch for Rabbitte to exit stage left and Labour to look to go in with FF unless Greens can give them a better deal. If FF can tie down Labour(old men in a hurry now, all realising that their generation may not see ministerial mercedes again), then they cannot present themselves as part of a rainbow alternative next time round....

And watch for Bertie to slip away at a time of HIS choosing within 3 years. No Blair he! But then Cowen is no Gordon B

[nemesis2004]

Greetings all. Those of you based in Ireland may have noticed-as I have, and I've been following politics and elections here since '77...no kidding-that the TV coverage once again was well below the quality of radio coverage. Some counts were tlevised and shown several minutes afterwards and some vital counts missed while silly clumsy interviews with Joe Mchugh+ Olwyn Enright, for example were being shown....not impressed.

Further to what I mentioned about Bertie going at a time of his choosing, I noticed Vincent Browne last night talk about Ahern's desire to see through the full term and the point he made was very valid. It's not REALLY plausible for Ahern to serve a full term and then hand over to a successor. He said he would have to give a prospective new FF leader at least a year, possibly more to get ready and put their stamp on a new adminsitration, ready for election...so he can't really stay till 2012. Expect the speculation to start within 18 months as to when he'll go-which is why i suggested he will end up having to decide himself but within 3 years.

as to a likely combination? I've been mulling this over all day(thought Saturdays were for recreation-well, now that the football season is over we can't do that) and have figured that yes, the idea of a deal with the Greens backed up by Bev, Healy-rae and Gregory sounds most plausible. hard to know. I just can't see the PDs figuring. The idea of a party so utterly rejected by the electorate going back into a Coalition arrangement doesn't make sense. Has happened before though....

As regards what I said about Labour being old men in a hurry? Heard that being said to me by several political scientists last night. Body language from likes of Howlin indicated that they had seen alliance rejected and as if to add "You're on your own now Enda..."

We shall see. It will once again be a fascinating post-election shuffle....but the ball is very much in Bertie's court.

[nemesis2004]

Sorry Jas but I just couldn't be bothered replying....nothing personal!!!!!

It's just that each time I try to do this it either times out or re-loads and I lose all I've written. Broadband is not making this easy for me to do this...

You've raised good points and we'll chat about this again!