Over the past three decades, the number of registered Democrats in the state has not only failed to keep pace with population growth, it has actually declined in absolute terms. According to the secretary of state's election statistics, there were 794,218 Oregon Democrats in 1976; as of this past May, there were 760,066.
Thirty years ago, 56 percent of registered Oregon voters were Democrats; today, that number is less than 39 percent.
Over the same time period, the number of registered Republicans in the state has soared by half. If not for a temporary spike in Democratic registration in 2004, generated by a one-time expenditure of $10 million in national party funds, the Democratic advantage—currently less than 3 percent of the electorate—might already have disappeared.
Democrats not only face a rising Republican tide, they also must compete for a growing and unpredictable cadre of independent voters.
So, is the "one time expenditure of 10 million dollars" responsible that Kerry did better than Gore in Oregon in 04 ? Remember, the spread between Gore and Bush in 2000 was 0,5%, between Kerry and Bush it was 4%. Could it probably be the case that more and more "former" registered Democrats are considering themselves Independents and when it comes to elections vote in favor for the Democrats ? Even if Democrats and Republicans have the same numbers of registered members, it´s possible that most Independents, maybe 55 to 45 break for the Dems.
