The key is the the GOP rebound in white upper class suburbs. That explains CT-05 and CT-04. In the 2000-2008 paradigm these were becoming more and more Dem and off limits to the GOP. Hence in 2006, Scott Elliot of Election Projections Listed CT-02 and CT-05 as the least likely to go back to the GOP after they were lost. The Paradigm has shifted significantly.
You mean, hopefully CT-02 is a competitive race, too.
No, CT-02 should be competitive if CT-04 is. It's just one point more Democratic than CT-04 (D+6 vs D+5), but much more blue collar than the rest of Connecticut. It's working class whites that are abandoning the Democrats most. I'd be shocked if Peckinpaugh isn't within at least 7.
I'd be shocked if either of these races are actually competitive
Prepare to be shocked. All 3 districts were held by Republicans in 2004. CT-02 and CT-05 flipped in 2006; CT-04 in 2008. They should be competitive - and will be.
TX-22, FL-16, and KS-2 were Democratic in 2006, yet somehow I doubt they're going to be close This reminds me of how some people were saying Courtney and Murphy might be vulnerable/in tough races in 2008.
Cappielo was a strong candidate who just couldn't get traction in 2008 due to the environment and the continuing trend against the GOP in these type of seats.
CT-02 was only going to be Competative if Simmons had a rematch. He didn't.