Is Trump now the favorite?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

According to tracking polls, he has gained 5 points in the couple days since the Hillary health news broke, and both that and the deplorables comment won't be fully reflected in the polls for a few more days.  I've been (mostly) saying that Trump would win since May, but he now looks like a clear favorite to me.

[Nyvin]

No,  I wouldn't say he's the favorite.   There's still a huge deficit in the electoral map he needs to overcome, and he isn't running a very good campaign either.   I don't see the recent bump to be enough to take him over the top.

[Fusionmunster]

Clear favorite? What are you smoking and where can I get some?

[Lincoln Republican]

Let's face it, neither one of these two corrupt, shameless individuals deserve to be President of the United States.

[KingSweden]

No, but the election is at least competitive. We'll see after the first debate, I guess.

[Illiniwek]

Stop it. But a Hillary victory is not 100% likely.

[Xing]

I love how polls are inaccurate and can't be trusted until they show decent numbers for Trump. No, Trump isn't suddenly the favorite because he had a good week. Let's wait for the first debate.

[elcorazon]

He's clearly the second most likely winner at this moment, but the gap is narrowing

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

There is no path.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Of course not just now. He has always been the favorite

[Tender Branson]

Unless he starts leading in 2 polls each out of CO, VA and PA ... nope.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

No. Even if he wins all the states where he has a >30% chance of winning on 538 polls-only, he only gets to 264 (counting ME-2). He still needs to pull off PA, and so far he's not doing it. As I've said more times than I care to know, the winner of PA will win the election. Period. It's just the way things are. Neither candidate can win without it.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

The electoral map is still difficult for him, particularly because Pennsylvania has not tightened as much as other states have.

We don't really know that, because we didn't have so many descent polls in swing states. So he's probably overestimated in some states, while underestimated in others.  That's why I rather believe national polls right now (since we have much more A pollsters  there).

[Torie]

Trump has this little problem. Assuming NH and Colorado are out of his reach, along of course with VA, Trump needs to win either MI or WI (PA isn't going to work out for him before these other two states, given the Philly burbs hostility to him, and that area makes up a big percentage of the state's population). In looking at the cross tabs of a couple of polls that publish them, Trump is losing Oakland County in MI by 2-1, a massive drop off from Romney or McCain, and is breaking even in the Milwaukee suburbs (McCain won the area by 14 points). So Trump needs to pull back those better educated white voters in the suburbs that he has lost. To do that, he needs to be someone other than Trump. In the end, even if all else goes well with him, it's the WOW counties and Oakland County that keep the keys to the White House out of Trump's hands in the end, even if all else fails.

[DrScholl]

He's about as much a favorite as President Romney.

[dax00]

this is how i see it as of today. would say clinton has a 53-55% chance of winning. the debates will be too volatile to put too much weight on the poll map just yet.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Trump has this little problem. Assuming NH and Colorado are out of his reach, along of course with VA, Trump needs to win either MI or WI (PA isn't going to work out for him before these other two states, given the Philly burbs hostility to him, and that area makes up a big percentage of the state's population). In looking at the cross tabs of a couple of polls that publish them, Trump is losing Oakland County in MI by 2-1, a massive drop off from Romney or McCain, and is breaking even in the Milwaukee suburbs (McCain won the area by 14 points). So Trump needs to pull back those better educated white voters in the suburbs that he has lost. To do that, he needs to be someone other than Trump. In the end, even if all else goes well with him, it's the WOW counties and Oakland County that keep the keys to the White House out of Trump's hands in the end, even if all else fails.

PA was closer than MI/WI in 2008 and 2012, and Trump did much better in PA during the primary than he did in WI/MI. If he wins MI or WI, he has already won PA.

[Virginiá]

PA was closer than MI/WI in 2008 and 2012, and Trump did much better in PA during the primary than he did in WI/MI. If he wins MI or WI, he has already won PA.

Primary results/turnout do not belong in a conversation about general election prospects.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

No, Clinton is still a 60-65% favorite.

[ursulahx]

Possible that Trump's polls will tick upwards in the next few days, following Phlegm-gazi, but normality will resume shortly afterwards. The answer is obviously no.

Still eight weeks to go, so enough time for things to change in either direction. Remember Trump was in meltdown only a month ago, and talk of a Clinton landslide suddenly didn't seem silly. Now the race appears to be neck and neck (with Clinton having an edge). That's a long way from saying Trump is the favourite, though.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Let's face it, neither one of thee two corrupt, shameless individuals deserve to be President of the United States.

There is no legitimate equivalency between these two candidates. Period.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Let's face it, neither one of thee two corrupt, shameless individuals deserve to be President of the United States.

There is no legitimate equivalency between these two candidates. Period.

Yes. No matter how critical one may be about Hillary, she can't be put on the same level as Trump.

Stop it. But a Hillary victory is not 100% likely.

Of course not, and I won't feel safe until this is all over.

The way I see it is Trump regaining some ground he was bound to regain, with Hillary hitting her celling a while ago. It is yet, however, to affect and overall picture.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Let's face it, neither one of thee two corrupt, shameless individuals deserve to be President of the United States.

There is no legitimate equivalency between these two candidates. Period.

Both are not good people to elect. The difference is that one is a half-criminal addicted to focus groups who loves wall street, and the second is a bankrupt businessman with no experience and a friendship with Vladimir Putin and David Duke. Neither is the sort of president I want.

[President Johnson]

No, he's still the underdog. Demographics and the electroal collage are not in his favor.

[pbrower2a]

Donald Trump is increasingly being shown as a liar, someone who says whatever is convenient in the moment. His business acumen is suspect; the fellow is simply good at squeezing a captive market (people who must live in New York City because they could not do what they do elsewhere) by exploiting a permanent scarcity. Exploiting a permanent scarcity? That's easier than wildcatting for oil, developing software, or designing a better model of automobile.

Donald Trump is not a capitalist; he is simply a rentier.