How is this even a question? If the GOP takes the House this year (which they look likely to do), then Boehner will obviously become Speaker. I mean, how many elections in the history of the world have seen a party take over a legislative majority, only to immediately dump their leader? Only one that comes to mind offhand is Trent Lott being ousted in 2002 after the GOP took the Senate. So unless Boehner makes a Strom Thurmond-like gaffe, and unless the Dems actually retain the House, he will be the next Speaker.
The more interesting question is who will be the next House Minority Leader. I'm guessing that, assuming the GOP wins, Pelosi steps down from the leadership, and Hoyer takes over. But I don't think that's a lock.
In the NY Assembly elections of 1883? 1884? Teddy Roosevelt worked his tail off as minority leader to make sure the next assembly had a GOP majority and his reword for his successfull effort was being sacked by the NY GOP establishment. You just can't win.
