(Sweden) THIS ELECTION has been CANCELLED. Next departure in 2018.

[Lurker]

Ipsos for Dagens Nyheter:

Share of voters who believe they will vote for the same party in the new election

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Not looking good for the Christian Democrats, who only just passed the threshold at the last election. Perhaps many of their loan voters from last time is considering to change their vote this time. The same is to a lesser extent true for the (Liberal) People's Party. The threshold is 4%, KD got 4.57% and FP 5.42% at the last election.

The article doesn't provide numbers for all the parties, but it says that the Sweden Democrats is the party with the biggest potential to increase its share of the votes. 3/10 of the Alliance voters who consider changing party, is considering to vote for SD, while the same is the case for 2/10 of the red-green voters who consider changing their vote.

http://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/kd-ligger-samst-till-infor-nyvalet/

I would be shocked if either of the Alliance parties did not cross the threshold. If they hover around it, they are always "saved" by supporters of the other three parties.

This may not hold if two of them are in trouble at the same time. If we are looking at a big swing to SD, as the numbers Diouf posted suggest, we could be in uncharted territory.

I doubt it will happen, though if SD significantly increases its vote share then there is a chance, yes. Though I wonder what SD's ceiling is - I would have thought (or hoped) that they're pretty close to it by now. They've already almost polled as well as DF's best Folketing result, and DF doesn't have the baggage of SD.

[ingemann]

Ipsos for Dagens Nyheter:

Share of voters who believe they will vote for the same party in the new election

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not looking good for the Christian Democrats, who only just passed the threshold at the last election. Perhaps many of their loan voters from last time is considering to change their vote this time. The same is to a lesser extent true for the (Liberal) People's Party. The threshold is 4%, KD got 4.57% and FP 5.42% at the last election.

The article doesn't provide numbers for all the parties, but it says that the Sweden Democrats is the party with the biggest potential to increase its share of the votes. 3/10 of the Alliance voters who consider changing party, is considering to vote for SD, while the same is the case for 2/10 of the red-green voters who consider changing their vote.

http://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/kd-ligger-samst-till-infor-nyvalet/

I would be shocked if either of the Alliance parties did not cross the threshold. If they hover around it, they are always "saved" by supporters of the other three parties.

This may not hold if two of them are in trouble at the same time. If we are looking at a big swing to SD, as the numbers Diouf posted suggest, we could be in uncharted territory.

I doubt it will happen, though if SD significantly increases its vote share then there is a chance, yes. Though I wonder what SD's ceiling is - I would have thought (or hoped) that they're pretty close to it by now. They've already almost polled as well as DF's best Folketing result, and DF doesn't have the baggage of SD.

I think the fact that 44% say that Sweden should take less refugees, and no one else seem to represent them in any way, indicate that SD have a potential very high ceiling, I don't think they have a 44% ceiling, but there is a lot of room to grow in between that and their last result.

[politicus]

I doubt it will happen, though if SD significantly increases its vote share then there is a chance, yes. Though I wonder what SD's ceiling is - I would have thought (or hoped) that they're pretty close to it by now. They've already almost polled as well as DF's best Folketing result, and DF doesn't have the baggage of SD.

Well, DF is polling at 21% now..

(not that I think it necessarily makes sense to compare Denmark and Sweden in this context)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What's the Feminist Initiative's plan this time around lol?

[jaichind]

* Some 26% of Swedes polled by DN/Ipsos want next government to be led by the Social Democrats and to consist of parties from both political blocs.
* 40% say some kind of cooperation across blocs good for Sweden
* Only 2% of surveyed voters would like current government constellation with Social Democrats and Green Party
* 19% want Alliance government, led by Moderate Party
* Some 20% of voters want next government to cooperate with Sweden Democrats
* DN/Ipsos polled 1,006 Swedish voters online Dec. 3-4

Seems like SD's ceiling could be up to 20%.

[jaichind]

* Sweden government’s Social Democrats and Green Party, combined with Left Party, backed by 41.7% of voters in Expressen/Demoskop poll.
* Four-party alliance, with Moderate Party, Centre Party, Liberal Party, Christian Democrats, also backed by 41.7%
* Sweden Democrats backed by 13.5%
* Expressen/Demoskop polled 1,250 voters Nov. 25-Dec. 3; government called new election on Dec. 3 after budget failed to win enough support in parliament

Looks like we might need to go to grand coalition after election. 

[politicus]

* Some 26% of Swedes polled by DN/Ipsos want next government to be led by the Social Democrats and to consist of parties from both political blocs.
* 40% say some kind of cooperation across blocs good for Sweden
* Only 2% of surveyed voters would like current government constellation with Social Democrats and Green Party
* 19% want Alliance government, led by Moderate Party
* Some 20% of voters want next government to cooperate with Sweden Democrats
* DN/Ipsos polled 1,006 Swedish voters online Dec. 3-4

Seems like SD's ceiling could be up to 20%.

Your reference of it is a bit selective..

14% wants S, V and MP, so the combined support for a leftist government is 16%. Which is still very low of course, but roughly the same as the 19% for an Alliance government,

Twice as many voters want an S led Grand Coalition (26%) as an M led Grand Coalition (14%).

10% says "Other", which is most likely people hoping for an Alliance + SD government, since that is the option not polled, but that is a guess.

No less than 15% don't know.

So basically more voters still want an S led coalition (42%), than an M led (33%), which is after all good news for SAP, but that is provided the rump 10% are not mainly SD supporters.

Regarding the Blame Game:

35% blame the government for the crisis
24% SD
17% Alliance
10% Other (which is a LOL option in this context, though it may be the big bad media)
14% Dunno

So this is bad news for SAP, but very good (and a bit undeserved IMO) news for the Alliance.

[Diouf]

Regarding the polls, I can see that the polls before the last election almost uniformly underestimated SD. The four polls from the election day gave SD 8.3%, 10.5%, 10.2%, and 10.4% while their actual election result was 12.9%. The pollster which was closest to capture the strength of SD was Sentio, which in the last three polls listed before the election predicted 11.8%, 13.5% and 12.5%.
It doesn't really seem like there has been any alignment between Sentio and the other polls. The other pollsters currently show SD results between 11.8% and 13.8%, while Sentio's SD results in the two recent polls have been 16.7% and 16.4%.

I've looked at the polls listed here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_general_election,_2014
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_general_election,_2015

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Though presumably polls at this stage are almost meaningless? This seems like the sort of election in which the campaign will be critical.

[politicus]

Though presumably polls at this stage are almost meaningless? This seems like the sort of election in which the campaign will be critical.

I think the blame poll is the most important, it sets the stage and reveals that it is going to be an uphill battle for SAP to sell their narrative of the crisis.  The second most important is the preferred government poll with a plurality for a Grand Coalition. It confirms that Swedes remain consensus seekers and that going on the attack will likely backfire.

The actual polling numbers for the parties at this point are much less interesting.

[Famous Mortimer]

So great, Sweden is basically going to become Austria.

A non-ideological grand coalition is only going to increase the popularity of anti-system parties.

Which will of course make force a permanent grand coalition.

Vicious cycle.

[jaichind]

I accept my accolades ?

I guess this result will mean a center-left minority government with a significant chance of a mid-term election.

[Nortexius]

Latest Yougov poll (first after the new elections called) shows the Sweden Democrats on 17,7%.

S  29,6 (+0,1)
MP  6,9 (-1,1)
V   4,7 (-2,1)
FI 2,5 (-2,5)

RedGreen bloc: 41,2

M  23,1 (+1,9)
C   5,7 (-0,7)
FP  5,0 (-1,2)
KD  4,2 (-1,6)

Alliance bloc: 38,0

SD 17,7 (+6,6)

[politicus]

Latest Yougov poll (first after the new elections called) shows the Sweden Democrats on 17,7%.

S  29,6 (+0,1)
MP  6,9 (-1,1)
V   4,7 (-2,1)
FI 2,5 (-2,5)

RedGreen bloc: 41,2

M  23,1 (+1,9)
C   5,7 (-0,7)
FP  5,0 (-1,2)
KD  4,2 (-1,6)

Alliance bloc: 38,0

SD 17,7 (+6,6)

Welcome to the forum.

[Nortexius]

Thank you!

[EPG]

Thanks for poll figures. On those numbers, it is interesting that:
1. SAP + SD have almost half of all effective votes. Any majority must include either SAP or SD, because of V, but they don't have one alone.
2. SAP + MP need at least three smaller parties for a majority, be it V or Alliance.
3. M + SD would need at least two Alliance parties.

Can I get a sense from Swedes or Scandinavians... first, is SD anywhere near ready for government, and second, are the larger parties anywhere near ready to be supported by SD?

[politicus]

Thanks for poll figures. On those numbers, it is interesting that:
1. SAP + SD have almost half of all effective votes. Any majority must include either SAP or SD, because of V, but they don't have one alone.
2. SAP + MP need at least three smaller parties for a majority, be it V or Alliance.
3. M + SD would need at least two Alliance parties.

Can I get a sense from Swedes or Scandinavians... first, is SD anywhere near ready for government, and second, are the larger parties anywhere near ready to be supported by SD?

The answer to both questions is no.

[DC Al Fine]

Thanks for poll figures. On those numbers, it is interesting that:
1. SAP + SD have almost half of all effective votes. Any majority must include either SAP or SD, because of V, but they don't have one alone.
2. SAP + MP need at least three smaller parties for a majority, be it V or Alliance.
3. M + SD would need at least two Alliance parties.

Can I get a sense from Swedes or Scandinavians... first, is SD anywhere near ready for government, and second, are the larger parties anywhere near ready to be supported by SD?

The answer to both questions is no.

Furthermore, why would SD want anything to do with government? They stand to benefit from being the outsider party.

[Vosem]

Thanks for poll figures. On those numbers, it is interesting that:
1. SAP + SD have almost half of all effective votes. Any majority must include either SAP or SD, because of V, but they don't have one alone.
2. SAP + MP need at least three smaller parties for a majority, be it V or Alliance.
3. M + SD would need at least two Alliance parties.

Can I get a sense from Swedes or Scandinavians... first, is SD anywhere near ready for government, and second, are the larger parties anywhere near ready to be supported by SD?

The answer to both questions is no.

The answer to both questions is hell no.

[politicus]

To elaborate a bit:

The leader of the Moderates in Scania has been positive towards cooperation with SD, but Scania is more anti-immigration than the rest of Sweden. There are apparently a handfull of Moderate MPs that are privately positive about it (when asked anonymously), but it is still a very marginal position and there is no reason to believe this will change in the near future (though it may in the long run if SD remains a factor).

[ingemann]

To elaborate a bit:

The leader of the Moderates in Scania has been positive towards cooperation with SD, but Scania is more anti-immigration than the rest of Sweden. There are apparently a handfull of Moderate MPs that are privately positive about it (when asked anonymously), but it is still a very marginal position and there is no reason to believe this will change in the near future (though it may in the long run if SD remains a factor).

I have a really hard time seeing SD stop being a factor, even if the party self destruct in some incredible way, a new party will just rise and replace it. There are a significant segment of the Swedish population who are unhappy with the Swedish immigration policy and the immigrants in Sweden. That will not just disappear. 

[EPG]

Yeah. Even outsiders want to be in government or to influence the government, especially if no-one else is adopting their ideas and trying to steal their supporters away. It is hard to get one's agenda implemented outside government, given the tendency of modern party systems to concentrate power, due to EU inter-governmentalism and higher demands for public transparency in politics. The point of doing well in elections is not just to maintain purity and do well in future elections.

I can see why the extent of compromise or toxicity might be too much for either side to bear right now. The Danish People's Party achieved a lot because it was willing to support governments, and vice versa. It sounds like Swedish politics (at least at elite level) is not yet ready to deal with the more infamous SD. Still, without them, the options are now grand coalitions or five-party alliances.

[Beezer]

Latest Yougov poll (first after the new elections called) shows the Sweden Democrats on 17,7%.

S  29,6 (+0,1)
MP  6,9 (-1,1)
V   4,7 (-2,1)
FI 2,5 (-2,5)

RedGreen bloc: 41,2

M  23,1 (+1,9)
C   5,7 (-0,7)
FP  5,0 (-1,2)
KD  4,2 (-1,6)

Alliance bloc: 38,0

SD 17,7 (+6,6)

What are the number is parentheses supposed to indicate (since they don't show the difference with the election results)?

[politicus]

Latest Yougov poll (first after the new elections called) shows the Sweden Democrats on 17,7%.

S  29,6 (+0,1)
MP  6,9 (-1,1)
V   4,7 (-2,1)
FI 2,5 (-2,5)

RedGreen bloc: 41,2

M  23,1 (+1,9)
C   5,7 (-0,7)
FP  5,0 (-1,2)
KD  4,2 (-1,6)

Alliance bloc: 38,0

SD 17,7 (+6,6)

What are the number is parentheses supposed to indicate (since they don't show the difference with the election results)?

Its the difference to the last YouGov poll.

[politicus]

Yeah. Even outsiders want to be in government or to influence the government, especially if no-one else is adopting their ideas and trying to steal their supporters away. It is hard to get one's agenda implemented outside government, given the tendency of modern party systems to concentrate power, due to EU inter-governmentalism and higher demands for public transparency in politics. The point of doing well in elections is not just to maintain purity and do well in future elections.

I can see why the extent of compromise or toxicity might be too much for either side to bear right now. The Danish People's Party achieved a lot because it was willing to support governments, and vice versa. It sounds like Swedish politics (at least at elite level) is not yet ready to deal with the more infamous SD. Still, without them, the options are now grand coalitions or five-party alliances.

The most likely development IMO is that SD-Moderate cooperation on the local level will over time make it more legit and natural to cooperate on the national level.