Would West Virginia have remained Democratic if Al Gore were not the Democratic Party nominee?

[WalterWhite]

Al Gore was known for being an environmentalist. He supported policies meant to reduce the total carbon footprint of the United States. In doing so, he was perceived as anti-coal, which hurt him in West Virginia. This is probably the reason why West Virginia voted for George W. Bush in 2000.

If Al Gore were not the Democratic nominee, the Democratic Party would have not been as associated with environmentalism as it was during our timeline. With that in mind, would West Virginia have remained a Democratic state?

[WalterWhite]

Not with George W Bush as President. Bush as President caused the parties to be polarized on environmental/energy issues which benefited the GOP quite a bit. Bush was also the first Republican President in a while to be outright against gun control as well as keep in mind Nixon/Reagan/HW were all pro gun control while W Bush let the AWB expire and then exempted gun manufacturers from lawsuits so the parties became polarized on guns under his presidency too.

Bush also pushed the last of the liberal Republicans into the Democratic Party for good and brought over the last of the Southern Conservative Democrats into the GOP which made it much harder for the type of Democrat who would be able to win West Virginia to win a Democratic Primary. Now while it took until 2014 for this realignment of West Virginia politics to effect downballot races, realignments usually happen first at the Presidential level then trickle down.

If West Virginia had stayed Democratic in 2000, the Democratic nominee would have probably been POTUS from 2001 to 2005. Without the polarization of energy issues and gun rights, West Virginia might have actually stayed Democratic.

[WalterWhite]

Not with George W Bush as President. Bush as President caused the parties to be polarized on environmental/energy issues which benefited the GOP quite a bit. Bush was also the first Republican President in a while to be outright against gun control as well as keep in mind Nixon/Reagan/HW were all pro gun control while W Bush let the AWB expire and then exempted gun manufacturers from lawsuits so the parties became polarized on guns under his presidency too.

Bush also pushed the last of the liberal Republicans into the Democratic Party for good and brought over the last of the Southern Conservative Democrats into the GOP which made it much harder for the type of Democrat who would be able to win West Virginia to win a Democratic Primary. Now while it took until 2014 for this realignment of West Virginia politics to effect downballot races, realignments usually happen first at the Presidential level then trickle down.

If West Virginia had stayed Democratic in 2000, the Democratic nominee would have probably been POTUS from 2001 to 2005. Without the polarization of energy issues and gun rights, West Virginia might have actually stayed Democratic.

Keep in mind though a Democratic nominee that was less liberal on the environment probably does not win Oregon in 2000 due to Nader doing even better which means Bush still wins anyway.

Such a Democrat would have probably done better than Gore in the Appalachian Part of Ohio, which would have probably given the state to the Democratic nominee.

[WalterWhite]

It's important to note that these states don't switch entirely because a bunch of people just decide between elections that their preferred party "left them" or whatever.  Sure, that happens, but generational displacement and net migration to and from the state are also huge factors.  Consider the exit polls in West Virginia for the 1996 election by age group:

18 to 29: 51% DEM, 29% GOP
30 to 44: 45% DEM, 39% GOP
45 to 59: 52% DEM, 37% GOP
60 and Older: 57% DEM, 38% GOP

18 to 64: 48% DEM, 38% GOP
65 and Older: 61% DEM, 33% GOP

You could already seeing older generations being significantly more loyal to the Democratic Party than younger ones, and more and more of them are going to die off every four years.  So, combined with everything else (let's also not forget that the Clinton scandal hurt the party a lot in more socially conservative areas, regardless of who the nominee ending up being), I am not sure another candidate could have hung on to the state ... however, it's far from impossible.

The Clinton scandal actually helped Bill Clinton's net approval ratings. Plus, Al Gore distanced himself from Bill Clinton. I think environmentalism was what killed the West Virginia Democratic Party, a state so heavily reliant of the coal industry.