Canadian by-elections, 2016 (next event: Quebec provincial byelections [Dec 5])

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I believe Neethan is the only candidate who lives in the riding, so that may help him.

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Since we don't know where they're coming from, it's too early to call it. But it does look like the NDP won't win.

If these polls are coming from the west end of the riding, nothing from these results are surprising, or indicate that the NDP won't be competitive.

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Wow.  That is a huge win.  If this trend continues up to the next provincial election, it's going to look more and more like a majority for the PCs next time around

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Provincial Ottawa-Vanier: Tories lead 48/28 in Eastern ON, Grits 3rd provincewide.

Do not confuse the very Francophone, urban, working class, and Catholic riding of Ottawa-Vanier with the mostly Anglophone, rural and Protestant rest of Eastern Ontario!

I expect the ONDP to do well with Bisson, if he's anything like his brother.  Working-class francophone kind of guy, I could see, especially the Vanier part of the riding, since U of O area already usually favours them.

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Full poll: 43/27/25, Wynne approval at 15%, Brown 51%, Horwath 59%. Have fun Grits!

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/wynne-liberals-headed-disaster/

Regionally:
North - PC 41%, NDP 32%, OLP 24%
East - PC 48%, OLP 28%, NDP 16%
SW - PC 45%, NDP 35% OLP 15%
SC - PC 48% OLP 24% NDP 21%
GTA - PC 47% NDP 27% OLP 23%
416 - OLP 35% PC 31% NDP 27%

The 416 looking like an even 3 way race.  Much of that PC 31% is likely concentrated in Etobicoke and North York.

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Also, GPR is the only Francophone riding in the province. Ottawa-Vanier is only 31% French.

Timmins-James Bay and, I believe Nickel Belt, have larger French populations than Ottawa-Vanier.

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Provincial Sault Ste. Marie: David Oriazetti is quitting politics. First Red-Orange battle in a while.

If it is a straight "red-orange" battle, than the Liberals will win. The NDP only can win the Sault if the Tories do well.  The Tories may very well do well in the Sault though (don't forget it went Tory federally from 2011-2015).

Much of the "red" here was only "red" for Oriazetti and not for Wynne or the party.  That along with the unpopular hydro fiasco and a higher Ontario PC will certainly help the ONDP pick this up. 

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And to be fair, NDP support in the Soo is more of a mix of progressive and labour "left", as opposed to the almost uniformly labour/blue collar NDP left in Timmins and/or Sudbury, which is why a lot of that orange vote was able to bleed to Oriazetti and the Wynne Liberals.