Libya: Benghazi unrest, to Civil War, to a new government and Gaddafi's death.

[opebo]

It's amazing how we've played ball with dictators for countless years in the name of oil.....and still do.

How is that amazing?  The US installed most of the world's dictators during the cold war, and not only in the name of oil.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

It's amazing how we've played ball with dictators for countless years in the name of oil.....and still do.

How is that amazing?  The US installed most of the world's dictators during the cold war, and not only in the name of oil.

I was being sarcastic with the word "amazing".   

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

It's amazing how we've played ball with dictators for countless years in the name of oil.....and still do.

How is that amazing?  The US installed most of the world's dictators during the cold war, and not only in the name of oil.

Little known is the fact that, while Gaddafi took power without any help from America, the U.S. government effectively blocked British-sponsored attempts to overthrow him quickly and restore As-Sanussi dynasty, since they believed Gaddafi is going to be "anti-communist enough".

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

The goal has never been to merely protect civilians.

Well, the UN sanctioned measures to protect civilians...

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Not all of them.

Yes, but a majority.

Majority/minority term, as we understand in the West, are hardly applicable to societies divided along tribal lines.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama is speaking live now about it. Hasn't really said anything that everyone didn't already know so far.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Pretty good speech. He made the case pretty well. Far from his best obviously.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

After listening to Obama, I wonder if he'll use the same words when the Saudis start mowing people down......oh, wait.

[The Mikado]

Sirt is the scene of major battles, today.  Sirt is both important as a symbol (Qaddafi's hometown and the site of the greatest number of Qaddafi loyalists that actually support him) and as a strategic target (it would allow the main rebel force to connect up with and relieve the beleaguered rebel defenders of Misrata, which has been cut off from the rest of the rebellion for weeks).

[J. J.]

Sirt is the scene of major battles, today.  Sirt is both important as a symbol (Qaddafi's hometown and the site of the greatest number of Qaddafi loyalists that actually support him) and as a strategic target (it would allow the main rebel force to connect up with and relieve the beleaguered rebel defenders of Misrata, which has been cut off from the rest of the rebellion for weeks).

The advance was "stalled" as of the 6:30 news.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Text of Obama's speech:

http://tpmlivewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/03/text-of-president-obamas-speech-on-the-situation-in-libya.php?ref=fpblg

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

After listening to Obama, I wonder if he'll use the same words when the Saudis start mowing people down......oh, wait.

Not people, in Saudi case, that would be evil terrorists.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The "Day of Rage" against the Saudis was a complete bust, so I don't know what anyone's talking about.

[John Dibble]

Sirt is the scene of major battles, today.  Sirt is both important as a symbol (Qaddafi's hometown and the site of the greatest number of Qaddafi loyalists that actually support him) and as a strategic target (it would allow the main rebel force to connect up with and relieve the beleaguered rebel defenders of Misrata, which has been cut off from the rest of the rebellion for weeks).

The advance was "stalled" as of the 6:30 news.

So I take it that the rebel's experimental Office Chair Calvary didn't work out as hoped?

[J. J.]

Sirt is the scene of major battles, today.  Sirt is both important as a symbol (Qaddafi's hometown and the site of the greatest number of Qaddafi loyalists that actually support him) and as a strategic target (it would allow the main rebel force to connect up with and relieve the beleaguered rebel defenders of Misrata, which has been cut off from the rest of the rebellion for weeks).

The advance was "stalled" as of the 6:30 news.

So I take it that the rebel's experimental Office Chair Calvary didn't work out as hoped?

It's better than walking!

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Yup, turns bad on the eastern front, reports that Ben Jawad and Ras Lanuf are endangered again. Gaddafi had indeed put lots of forces in Syrte (I'll take the French spelling, my favorite), and rebels really aren't organized, so far they apparently mainly benefited of air strikes in their advance, and air strikes destroy heavy military equipment, so they can't benefit of it to advance, or not in big proportions, I've never seen more than one more or 2 big military vehicles on their front line. Gaddafi forces still had a lot in Syrte apparently.

I  think we don't have a bloody clue about who the majority of Syrte's inhabitants are supporting, very few informations came from there from the beginning of the conflict, the 2 only reports we had have been to say that Syrte had at one point in the beginning of the conflict rebelled itself, one was from an NGO, but nothing more, then we can't have clues of their relevance, but the point being that the city apparently remained pretty shut since the beginning, the fact that it is one which is both symbolically and strategically important would  explain why. So, the only thing we know so far about this city, it is that it would be pretty tough to get unless coalition can significantly strike Gaddafi forces there, and if the coalition can't, then, rebels will have to begin to make up their minds, and begin to seriously organize themselves to psychologically and strategically lead some tough and overall efficient fights, it would also be good they receive some significant military equipment, and maybe also some either French/UK/Egyptian special agents (that is as civilians, not people in uniform) in order to form them to military fight maybe (some strategical experts say it could easily be done discretely). Or ultimately, calling foreign troops, because, for example, it seems to turn worse and worse in Misrata meanwhile for rebels, more than 100 deads and 1,400 wounded, only some districts remain in their hands so far, and Gaddafi forces with military equipment seem to be well present there. All people who want to see this succeed want this happens the best and fastest possible, then I hope some constructive debates are taking place in this sense between the coalition and the rebels.

On western front, since Gaddafi forces permanently bomb and bomb and bomb Zintan, but it still doesn't fall. They should make up their mind, the city seems to be geographically untakeable, but fine if they use a lot of forces this way, and congrats to people to toughly resist there overall, coalition began to strike there too.

Oh, and, about Gaddafi tribe, it's 100,000 people, apparently mainly present in Tripoli and Sebah, and Syrte is 'only' 130,000 people, so if people from his tribe are there, nothing says its a tribal stronghold. And Tripoli, Syrte and Sebah would be the only significant Libyan cities that wouldn't have been part of those that reportedly rebelled themselves at one point in this conflict before being turned down by heavy military equipments, and beside the fact that we hadn't much informations about Syrte and Sebah, for Tripoli seems that the fact that the city would be hold by an iron fit could significantly explain that, beside Tajura, it didn't move much. In case rebels succeed to go till there, could be a very tough battle in the capital, since Gaddafi would certainly arms the most people he can, and that he could benefit of some die hard militians, then rebels would have in any case to begin to learn to seriously fight now. Or a good surprise comes...

[The Mikado]

Sirt is the scene of major battles, today.  Sirt is both important as a symbol (Qaddafi's hometown and the site of the greatest number of Qaddafi loyalists that actually support him) and as a strategic target (it would allow the main rebel force to connect up with and relieve the beleaguered rebel defenders of Misrata, which has been cut off from the rest of the rebellion for weeks).

The advance was "stalled" as of the 6:30 news.

So I take it that the rebel's experimental Office Chair Calvary didn't work out as hoped?

There's a great .gif of that pic on SA where the guy is firing and rolling backwards off frame, then it goes the other direction.

Also, the rebels might want to avoid their Calvary.  Cavalry, on the other hand...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Juppé said France is 'ready to talk about arming rebels'. UK and US would be wondering about it as well.

[opebo]

...rebels really aren't organized, so far they apparently mainly benefited of air strikes in their advance, and air strikes destroy heavy military equipment, so they can't benefit of it to advance, or not in big proportions, I've never seen more than one more or 2 big military vehicles on their front line.

If the rebels have a big military vehicle, such as a tank, we should destroy that too just to be fair.

[Gustaf]

...rebels really aren't organized, so far they apparently mainly benefited of air strikes in their advance, and air strikes destroy heavy military equipment, so they can't benefit of it to advance, or not in big proportions, I've never seen more than one more or 2 big military vehicles on their front line.

If the rebels have a big military vehicle, such as a tank, we should destroy that too just to be fair.

Who cares about fairness? This isn't a game show.

[opebo]

...rebels really aren't organized, so far they apparently mainly benefited of air strikes in their advance, and air strikes destroy heavy military equipment, so they can't benefit of it to advance, or not in big proportions, I've never seen more than one more or 2 big military vehicles on their front line.

If the rebels have a big military vehicle, such as a tank, we should destroy that too just to be fair.

Who cares about fairness? This isn't a game show.

Ah, so you admit it is a naked power grab and the 'freedom and democracy' stuff is just shoddy propaganda?

[Gustaf]

...rebels really aren't organized, so far they apparently mainly benefited of air strikes in their advance, and air strikes destroy heavy military equipment, so they can't benefit of it to advance, or not in big proportions, I've never seen more than one more or 2 big military vehicles on their front line.

If the rebels have a big military vehicle, such as a tank, we should destroy that too just to be fair.

Who cares about fairness? This isn't a game show.

Ah, so you admit it is a naked power grab and the 'freedom and democracy' stuff is just shoddy propaganda?

No...it's just that the fight for freedom and democracy need not be fair. If we're fighting a war there is no reason to limit ourselves to using an amount of force needed to make sure that we can't win. In fact, that idea is so stupid that I can't imagine anyone coming up with it. 

[J. J.]

I would be very supportive of arming the rebels. 

[Sam Spade]

The fact is that, at this point in the conflict, without serious actual ground forces by other countries being placed in Libya, Gaddafi will remain in control of a certain amount of Libya irregardless.  Absent that, we're just talking about whether there's a separate rebel-held part or he retakes it all.  Maybe serious aerial attacks can stop the latter, but I wonder.  A no-fly alone zone will not.

(sigh)

I lack knowledge of what's specifically going on "on the ground" right now, but my best guess is Gaddafi has figured out that if he can stay in close quarters the air strikes won’t happen.  After all, in terms of ground forces, he has a major advantage.  So, the rebels are now retreating and this time the government forces are right behind them.  The rebels keep trying to open the gap, the government keeps closing it.  Or something like that.  The rebels, become, in essence, human shields for the government forces.

Therefore, Gaddafi will wait to actually fight until he is in a town where he can use the population for protection against air strikes.  All this becomes more problematic, of course, when he gets to Benghazi or points further east where the population is less friendly and can utilize guerrilla attacks and what not.

If this is correct, the air strike, no-fly-zone policy is dead and will not work.  Arming the rebels is not a bad idea, but unless these are major armaments, you're going to have to play the guerrilla strategy, which may well take forever.  Otherwise, ground troops will be required to get rid of Gaddafi, or probably even hold the stalemate.  I guarantee it.

Btw, students of military history will know that this strategy was effectively used by the Soviets at Stalingrad against the German blitzkrieg.

[The Mikado]

All the same, if it does turn into a waiting game, how long can Qaddafi keep going with a third of his country under rebel occupation and the tightest sanctions he's ever faced?  I mean, keep going economically.  Libya's never been a well-to-do nation to begin with, even with the oil.

[patrick1]

The fact is that, at this point in the conflict, without serious actual ground forces by other countries being placed in Libya, Gaddafi will remain in control of a certain amount of Libya irregardless.  Absent that, we're just talking about whether there's a separate rebel-held part or he retakes it all.  Maybe serious aerial attacks can stop the latter, but I wonder.  A no-fly alone zone will not.

(sigh)

I lack knowledge of what's specifically going on "on the ground" right now, but my best guess is Gaddafi has figured out that if he can stay in close quarters the air strikes won’t happen.  After all, in terms of ground forces, he has a major advantage.  So, the rebels are now retreating and this time the government forces are right behind them.  The rebels keep trying to open the gap, the government keeps closing it.  Or something like that.  The rebels, become, in essence, human shields for the government forces.

Therefore, Gaddafi will wait to actually fight until he is in a town where he can use the population for protection against air strikes.  All this becomes more problematic, of course, when he gets to Benghazi or points further east where the population is less friendly and can utilize guerrilla attacks and what not.

If this is correct, the air strike, no-fly-zone policy is dead and will not work.  Arming the rebels is not a bad idea, but unless these are major armaments, you're going to have to play the guerrilla strategy, which may well take forever.  Otherwise, ground troops will be required to get rid of Gaddafi, or probably even hold the stalemate.  I guarantee it.

Btw, students of military history will know that this strategy was effectively used by the Soviets at Stalingrad against the German blitzkrieg.

Close air support has advanced quite a bit since Stalingrad.  The problem is that you need good communication and air controllers to avoid blue on blue. From what Ive seen of the rebels they look unprofessional and unorganized.  Embedding controllers with their forces is also politically dodgy. It doesnt help that I don't think the Obama admin really knows what they want to accomplish either.