India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec

[jaichind]

Looks like INC will win Uttarakhand, BJP will narrowly win in UP and AAP will win in Punjab.

Didn't the exit polls last time overestimate AAP?

Yes. but I think the exit poll biases change every election cycle.  I tend to think exit polls tend to overestimate the incumbent but that really has more to do with incumbents tend to lose.  The 2021 India assembly elections were a fairly pro-incumbent one and the exit polls there did not overestimate the incumbent and in some cases underestimated the incumbent.

[jaichind]

Crazy how much these vary! Overall, how will these be perceived for BJP/particular Yogi? Is this below expectations? Is it below by enough to actually have ramifications?

The Indian exit polls area is always all over the place.   Some rules.  India My Axis adopts a rule to always exaggerate the trends they see.  India My Axis have concluded that too many surveys tend to herd and underestimate the winning side. So every exit poll they do they are always the outlier in terms of having the largest winning margin for the winning side.  Most of the time over the last few cycles this approach has worked well.  But when a race is neck-to-neck and they miss-detect the winning side they do on occasion project one party/front to win by a landslide only for the other side to end up winning narrowly.  Today's Chanakya does the same thing with a pro-BJP bias.

Another reason why exit polls are all over the place is the Indian exit polls are very bad at translating vote share to seat share.  So many polls that might not be far off as far as vote share gives very different seat share results.

[jaichind]

Uttarakhand exit polls

[jaichind]

UP exit polls

[jaichind]

Goa exit polls

[jaichind]

Punjab exit polls

[jaichind]

Manipur exit polls

[jaichind]

The exit polls seem to be along the lines of what I thought might take place.  The main takeaways that seem to deviate from my thinking are

a) In Punjab AAP win might be bigger than I expected
b) In UP the BJP win might be bigger than I expected
c) In Manipur there is a good chance of BJP majority

Using the logic that exit polls tend to overestimate the incumbent a) seems very likely while b) and c) are not done deals yet but the chances of them taking place are larger.

Goa seems to be headed for a hung assembly with INC most likely have an edge while in Uttarakhand it will be close but INC seems to have the edge.

[jaichind]

Ground Zero UP exit poll (only exit poll that has the very narrow BJP win narrative)

BJP+- 200
SP- 188 
BSP- 7 
INC- 5
Others- 3 

[jaichind]

Axis My India UP exit poll vote share has a massive gender gap (at least in Indian context)

Men
BJP    44
SP     40
BSP   10
INC     3

Women
BJP    48
SP     32
BSP   14
INC     3


Rural
BJP     45
SP      36
BSP    14
INC      3
 
Urban
BJP    49
SP     35
BSP   10
INC     3

These vote shares seem to indicate that
a) What remains of INC and BSP Muslim votes went SP
b) SP got from non-Yadav OBC from BJP but not very much
c) What remains of INC Upper Caste vote went BJP
d) Non-Jatav Dalits went to BJP and not BSP or INC
e) And yes, the massive gender gap for BJP on law and order issues

[jaichind]

Democracy Times Punjab (another poll that has INC ahead)

▪️INC: 55
▪️AAP: 31
▪️SAD+BSP: 26
▪️BJP+PLC: 03
▪️OTH: 02

[jaichind]

Democracy Times UP

▪️BJP: 224
▪️SP: 161
▪️BSP: 10
▪️INC: 05
▪️OTH: 03

[jaichind]

Lok Poll exit polls for the 5 states
Very pro-INC anti-BJP set of exit polls and at odds with mainstream pollsters but does various pro-INC non-mainstream pollsters like Ground Zero and Democracy Times


Uttarakhand
▪️INC        36 - 38
▪️BJP        28 - 30
▪️BSP       00 - 02
▪️UJP        00 - 01
▪️OTH      02 - 03


Punjab
▪️INC          51 - 61
▪️AAP         24 - 34
▪️SAD+      21 - 31
▪️BJP+       01 - 05
▪️OTH        02 - 04


Manipur
▪️BJP        23 - 28
▪️INC        13 - 17
▪️NPP       04 - 08
▪️NPF       04 - 08
▪️OTH       03 - 06


Goa
▪️BJP               11 - 15
▪️INC-GFP       17 - 21
▪️MGP-TMC     02 - 05
▪️AAP             00 - 02
▪️OTH             01 - 03


UP
▪️BJP+      180 - 190
▪️SP+        170 - 180
▪️BSP        20 - 30
▪️INC         10 - 20
▪️OTH       03 - 06

[jaichind]

Ground Zero Punjab.  INC ahead?

INC- 54
AAP- 32
SAD+ BSP- 25
BJP+- 4
Others- 2

With regional breakdowns

[jaichind]

A poll of polls of mainstream pollsters for UP

[jaichind]

A Goa poll of polls

[jaichind]

My average of exit polls

UP
BJP+   237
SP+    146
BSP      11
INC        6
Others    3

UP 2017 exit poll average and result
                Exit poll        Result
BJP+           208              325
SP-INC        123                54
BSP              62                19
Others          10                  5



Uttarakhand
BJP          33
INC          33
Others       4

Uttarakhand  2017 exit poll average and result
                 Exit poll        Result
BJP                42                57
INC                24                11
Others              4                 2



Goa
BJP          15
INC          17
Others       8

Goa 2017 exit poll average and result
                Exit poll        Result
BJP             18                13
INC            13                 17
Others          8                10



Punjab
AAP          59
INC          32
SAD+       20
BJP+          4
Others        2

Punjab 2017 exit poll average and result
                Exit poll        Result
INC            54                 77
AAP+          52                22
SAD-BJP     10                 18
Others          1                   0


Manipur
BJP          30
INC          13
Others      17

Not that many exit polls for Manipur in 2017


The main takeaway, if you remove Punjab from the equation, is that the incumbent party (SP in UP, INC in Uttarakhand, BJP in Goa) was overestimated.    You can also read 2017 exit polls and results also as the winning party was underestimated.

In Punjab exit polls has the greatest variance both in 2017 as well as this year. 

[jaichind]

Poll Diary exit polls

UP



Punjab



Goa

[jaichind]

Axis My India exit polls with vote shares

UP
This one looks fishy.  The BJP+ SP+ BSP INC vote shares add up to 97% when it should be something like 90% given rebels, minor candidates, smaller parties like AIMIM JD(U) AAP etc etc.  There is good reason to suspect they are overestimating the BJP+ vote share and maybe SP+ vote share as well.
Of course, I made a similar critique of the 2019 Axis My India UP exit poll and was proven wrong when Axis My India picked up on a massive pro-Modi polarization that pushed down in a decisive way the minor party vote.



Goa
Wow.  RG vote share is almost as high as AAP.  I always knew AAP would bomb in Goa.  This exit poll seems to agree.



Manipur



Uttarakhand



Punjab
I agree INC will most likely lose but I find it hard to believe that INC vote share would fall to 28%.

[jaichind]

Port Blair Municipal Council election results.

INC: 10
BJP: 10
TDP:   2
DMK:  1
OTH:   1

INC-DMK-TDP alliance captures majority from BJP

Port Blair is the capital Andaman and Nicobar Islands,  Andaman and Nicobar Islands has a bunch of Tamil and Telegu speakers as well as Bengali.  As a result, DMK (for Tamils) and TDP (for Telegu) are also active here.  It is just interesting to see an election where DMK and TDP are active outside of TN and AP.

[jaichind]

Akhilesh Yadav alleges UP govt 'stealing' EVMs, truck with voting machines caught in Varanasi. 

This news shows that SP knows that it lost.  It is likely they did not lose in a landslide like some exit polls say but their internal assessment must he that they lost. 

[jaichind]

CSDS post-election vote share seems to confirm what Axis My India has

UP
BJP+ 43%
SP+  35%
BSP  15%
INC   3%
Oth   4%
7% gap should mean that BJP will be in the high 200s


Goa
BJP     32%
INC     29%
AITC+ 14%
AAP      7%
RG        8%
Oth     10%
BJP doing a bit better than other surveys.  Seat wise this would imply BJP-INC neck to neck


Punjab
AAP    40%
INC    26%
SAD+ 20%
BJP+   7%
Oth     7%
Massive AAP landslide


Uttarakhand
BJP   43%
INC   38%
AAP    3%
BSP    4%
Oth   12%
Surprising large BJP lead

[jaichind]

Assam Municipal elections.  Massive BJP-AGP landslide

NDA: 807 (BJP: 742,AGP: 65)
INC: 71
OTH: 99

[jaichind]

Akhilesh Yadav alleges UP govt 'stealing' EVMs, truck with voting machines caught in Varanasi.  

This news shows that SP knows that it lost.  It is likely they did not lose in a landslide like some exit polls say but their internal assessment must he that they lost.  

It seems after digging into this there was some unauthorized movement of training EVM in Varanasi.  I am sure there was nothing nefarious but now Akhilesh Yadav has talking points if, as expected, SP loses.  The fact is it is very hard for cheating to take place for EVMs.  In every district, the order of the candidates by the party is different so you have to be very careful how you manipulate these EVMs at counting stations since they often count EVMS from many districts.  If there is cheating you are better off taking over the voting booth and engaging in fake voting OR changing the results AFTER EVM produces results.   The key is cheating via EVM is not good ROI.

[jaichind]

In Goa, INC and GFP candidates in meeting to plan for vote counting day