PA Gubernatorial Race 2006

[AuH2O]

Rendell is going to be very, very tough to beat. I wouldn't bet against him. But I hope he loses all the same.

[AuH2O]

nick: ask and ye shall receive.

Personally, I think Rendell is a pretty formidable politician on a lot of levels. But there are enough problems in PA, including those of his doing, that he is somewhat vulnerable.

The race hinges on who wins the GOP primary to some extent, but I'm not sure who is really the best GOP option. I think there is good reason to think Castor is the best choice should he enter the race... there will be some synergy between the Senate and Governor's race, though the nature of that is difficult to predict (and I know of little research on the matter).

Swann has been taken out of context with some of his early remarks... I think the point was that he's not a politician but he is smart and has time to develop a platform. He's very raw right now but with lots of upside.

Right now, I think Rendell and Santorum will win narrowly. However, if Rendell loses that is big trouble for Casey, which is my primary interest in the race (I could kind of care less who PA elects as Governor; the Senate race is my main concern).

[AuH2O]

Swann has a lot of upside. He's polling pretty well.

The curious aspect of the whole PA situation is the relationship between the Governor's race and Senate race. Incumbents of opposite parties facing celebrity-type opposition (though Casey's celebrity stems from his name, not his performance on the football field). At this point, it looks like Santorum will not only need to right his own ship, but Swann might have to beat Rendell, too.