2012

[Cubby]

I used seven groups, but here you go:

This is the most likely map I have seen so far.  All things being equal though, I think New Jersey and Connecticut will be more competetive.

Why do you think Connecticut will be more competitive, Supersoulty? 2004 was a fluke because of security concerns, otherwise CT has been one of the biggest Dem-trending states in the country.

[Cubby]

I used seven groups, but here you go:

This is the most likely map I have seen so far.  All things being equal though, I think New Jersey and Connecticut will be more competetive.

Why do you think Connecticut will be more competitive, Supersoulty? 2004 was a fluke because of security concerns, otherwise CT has been one of the biggest Dem-trending states in the country.

I think there is an over-all trend in the suburbs that everyone needs to watch for, and it is not an overtly political one.

As the cities have expanded, the central city has boomed, declined, and now, in many places (esspecially New York) is enjoying another boom period (it is now considered very fashionable to live in the city, if you can afford it).  At the same time, the suburbs have continued to balloon further out.  The inner-suburbs, which were once fashsionable in the 1920'-50's are now expieriencing many of the problems that were once associated with the Central City, because they lack the infrastructure and vast amounts of wealth the inner-cities enjoy, and many of the people who once lived in the Central City are now being pushed out of there by property values that are once again on the rise.

This includes both lower-middle class white families and urban minorities.  This trend is most noticable in places like Newark, Patterson and Camden, which have all seen rapid decline in the past 20 years.

If what I think will happen, eventually, happens, then all of the areas where this occures (New Jersey and Conn. being the biggest) will start to drift towards the GOP.  The reason is, Republicans have made rapid advances with the White middle-class (lower, middle and, to a lesser extent upper), thus, those areas, in particular will see a noticable trend as is.  However, there is more at work here.  The movement of high crime to the inner-ring suburbs will increase the pro-law and order/pro-populist sentiment of those living in the middle and outter ring areas, which will cause them to go more steadily Republican. 

Also, in the Northeast, there has been a long standing animosity between blacks who have been in their area since prior to the Great Depression, and those who are new comers.  The well-established blacks think (and rightly so in many cases) that "new-comers" are largely the cause of many of the problems in the black community.  I'm not just supposing here, this is a big issue in Erie, and else where.  There is a clear divide forming in the black community.  As more of these "established blacks" start to lose their anti-Republican prejudice, they will come to realize that they have quite a bit in common with the Republicans on many issues, most noticably social issues.

New Jersey and Conn. have all of the factors I mentioned, in abundance.  Thus, my prediction.

Thats a interesting theory. The issues within the black community may not apply to Connecticut at the present time, since we are very highly segregated by town. The overwhelming majority of blacks here (about 300,000 out of 3.5 Million) live in the 10 biggest cities. Even some of the inner suburbs are only 5% black. The housing costs will definetely become a factor though. The problems of the inner suburbs are currently more in effect in Nassau and Westchester counties (NY) than in Connecticut, since even our cities are small and to begin with.