Intrade says Hillary has 42.5%, McCain highest with 18.3% at being parties nom

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I break down the Republican candidates by ideology:

True wingnut:
 Allen, Jeb Bush, Brownback, Frist, Santorum

Merely right-wing:
Sanford, Palenty, Owens, Romney

Not right-wing but not moderate, either:
McCain, Pataki

Too liberal to get the nomination:
Guilani

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The numbers for the Republican  primary are probably useful.  As for the Democratic primary, we've traditionally had very unpredictable ones like 1968, 1972, 1988, 2004.

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If Intrade is so good at predicting the eventual nominees, I'd like to know who they named in 2001 as the future Dem nominees for 2004.  Because that's effectively what they're doing here now.  If they still got it right then I'll be mightily impressed.

I'm pretty sure they got it wrong. The top names being mentioned in 2001 and 2002 were Gore, Lieberman, and Hillary, followed by maybe Daschle or Biden.