UK local elections, 2 May 2019

[Oryxslayer]

Seems to be a case of 'a plague on both your houses.' Lib and Local/Indies biggest gainers.

[Zaybay]

In the last hour, Labour appears to have stopped the bleeding, only losing 7 more seats since Oryxslayer's post. The Conservatives meanwhile have lost ~55 more seats. These gains appear to be going mostly to the Lib Dems and Indies, though some are going to Labour as well.

https://www.bbc.com/news/topics/ceeqy0e9894t/england-local-elections-2019

[Zaybay]

Its been 20 minutes, and in that timespan, the Labour Party has gained a council, Trafford. They lost a net 3 more seats, putting them at a loss of 57 at the time of posting. The Conservatives took a big loss, losing 35 more seats.

The current standings are(by councilors):
Labour - 662(-57)
Conservative - 606(-173)
Liberal Democrats - 243(+117)
Green - 22(+18)
UKIP - 10(-25)
Other/Indie - 177(+120)

[Walmart_shopper]

The Conservatives have lost badly, but not as badly as they were fearing because Labour have lost, too. I wouldn't read too much into the Brexit angle here, but it's clear that especially due to Brexit both Labour and the Tories are viewed as despicable, feckless, and politically worthless. Corbyn's latest idiocy, that Labour can remain a credible alternative to the Tories while shrugging at the most momentous political issue of the last half-century, is not credible. And the Tories are the Tories, alas, and everyone knows it.

But, frankly, I think everyone knew this, anyway. The local elections just confirm that we all weren't crazy.

[tomhguy]

Labour is the story of the night. We all expected the conservatives to crash, and they did, but Labour were not expected to lose many (if any) seats. They are clearly being blamed as well as the conservatives. Imagine a world without jeremy corbyn as leader....

[YL]

Don't make too many conclusions yet; there are still a lot of results to declare.  The big picture of Lib Dems and minor parties doing well and Labour and the Tories not probably won't change, but some of the details will.

Let's look at some individual councils.  Here are the three Yorkshire Mets which have counted the results.

Labour had a bit of a nightmare in Barnsley.  They were defending 19 out of 21 wards, and lost 7 of them.  The biggest individual winners were the Lib Dems, who won Dodworth and Darton East from Labour and Penistone West from the Tories, all very easily; they seem to have found an effective campaigning team from somewhere.  The Barnsley Independent Group won Stairfoot from Labour, and independents not aligned with them won in Dearne South and Worsbrough.  But the worst thing was that UKIP splinter Democrats & Veterans won Monk Bretton and Darfield from Labour; I believe these are the first seats that party has won.

In Wakefield the Lib Dems also came from nowhere to win a ward easily, Knottingley, from Labour.  Independents also won two seats from Labour, and the Yorkshire Party came close in Pontefract North.  The Tories held what they had but didn't gain Wrenthorpe & Outwood West as they did last year.

In Leeds Labour did indeed lose a few seats, all to parties which already held other seats in the wards.  The Lib Dems won Rothwell and Weetwood, the Tories Pudsey (but Labour held neighbouring Calverley & Farsley, which was in the same category) and the Greens Farnley & Wortley.  No other changes. 

[YL]

On the other side of the Pennines, Greater Manchester:

Labour gained Trafford very easily; the Tories lost nine of the 13 seats they were defending, six to Labour, two to the Lib Dems and one to the Greens, most very comfortably.

Bolton, on the other hand, was bad for Labour and is now firmly under No Overall Control.  The main gains were by localist parties Farnworth and Kearsley First and Horwich and Blackrod First who now have seven seats between them, but the Tories made a net gain of one and the Lib Dems two.  UKIP held a seat they were defending.

In Oldham Labour regained two wards from ex-Labour incumbent councillors and Saddleworth North from the Tories (in a fairly close four way result, with a localist party second and the Lib Dems not that far behind in fourth) but lost Failsworth East to an Independent, while the Lib Dems gained Saddleworth West & Lees from the Tories.  Labour are comfortably in control.

Tameside also remains safely Labour.  They narrowly gained Hyde Werneth from the Tories but lost Ashton Waterloo to the Greens, who weren't previously represented on the Council.

Stockport remains No Overall Control, with a noticeable advance by the Lib Dems who gained five seats from the Tories but lost one to Labour.

[DaWN]

Glad to see the two main parties doing badly. Will be interesting to see how they fare on the 23rd when there are more alternatives but higher turnout.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Very impressive results from the LD's in Somerset, meaning Community Liberalism is not a dead duck - they've taken the BANES unitary (Bath etc) and the expanded Taunton district, are expanding their majority in South Somerset and imo are likely to force Tory admins into minorities in Sedgemore  and Mendip (I imagine the Green surge will also be visible in the latter in Frome and Glastonbury).

Glad to see the two main parties doing badly. Will be interesting to see how they fare on the 23rd when there are more alternatives but higher turnout.

bold assumption imho

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Could someone familiar with Greater Manchester explain why Trafford is trending Labour? At this rate, Graham Brady's seat could be marginal in a decade or so...

[DaWN]

Glad to see the two main parties doing badly. Will be interesting to see how they fare on the 23rd when there are more alternatives but higher turnout.

bold assumption imho

I did say higher not high. At the very least more of the country will be voting so we'll be able to get a more national picture.

[jaichind]

It seems that all things equal when all the counting is done the the number of Councillors CON will have won would be roughly the same as the number of Councillors the LAB and LIB put together.  Quiet and accomplishment in its 9th year in power and after a catastrophic last few months.  I guess UKIP not running in a bunch of seats where they did run in 2015 must have helped. 

[rc18]

Could someone familiar with Greater Manchester explain why Trafford is trending Labour? At this rate, Graham Brady's seat could be marginal in a decade or so...

Progressive young professionals moving into the borough. The south side is pretty affluent suburban Tory base, the north is historically industrial working class that saw decline until recently and what’s left of this group is being supplemented by an influx of metropolitans from Manchester as the city grows. I assume house prices/green belt are an issue, notable as well there was much talk at the count about austerity which wasn’t really much of a feature elsewhere, more so than from many much poorer parts of the country.

[cp]

It seems that all things equal when all the counting is done the the number of Councillors CON will have won would be roughly the same as the number of Councillors the LAB and LIB put together.  Quiet and accomplishment in its 9th year in power and after a catastrophic last few months.  I guess UKIP not running in a bunch of seats where they did run in 2015 must have helped.  

Yeah, that's not how this works.

The councils up for election yesterday are only a portion of the local governments in the UK. London, Scotland, Wales, and large swaths of mostly metropolitan England aren't voting today. Those places that are voting are disproportionately Tory leaning, i.e. rural, older, whiter, etc.

The situation is analogous to having an entire class of US Senate seats consist of 75% heavily GOP states (Oklahoma, Kansas, Idaho, etc.). The Tories only managing to win half of the races in the most favourable terrain they could hope for is, in reality, a dismal showing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Could someone familiar with Greater Manchester explain why Trafford is trending Labour? At this rate, Graham Brady's seat could be marginal in a decade or so...

Unpopular and very right-wing Conservative administration with a very suburban focus that overstayed its welcome.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ftr, these are basically catastrophic results for both major parties. They can both point to a few bright spots if they're desperate enough, but mostly these just relate to the fact that these seats were last fought on a General Election day. It seems fairly clear that a lot of normally reliable major party voters did not turn out, while all of the angry, cranky types did. Think a lot of administrations got caught napping.

[jaichind]

It seems that all things equal when all the counting is done the the number of Councillors CON will have won would be roughly the same as the number of Councillors the LAB and LIB put together.  Quiet and accomplishment in its 9th year in power and after a catastrophic last few months.  I guess UKIP not running in a bunch of seats where they did run in 2015 must have helped.  

Yeah, that's not how this works.

The councils up for election yesterday are only a portion of the local governments in the UK. London, Scotland, Wales, and large swaths of mostly metropolitan England aren't voting today. Those places that are voting are disproportionately Tory leaning, i.e. rural, older, whiter, etc.

The situation is analogous to having an entire class of US Senate seats consist of 75% heavily GOP states (Oklahoma, Kansas, Idaho, etc.). The Tories only managing to win half of the races in the most favourable terrain they could hope for is, in reality, a dismal showing.

I see.  If these elections are on a 4 year cycle would not a better apples-to-apples comparison be 1991 when there was a long tenured CON government

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_United_Kingdom_local_elections

There the LAB were clearly head of CON

So I would still argue these results look very good in 2019 for the CON in historical perspective 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So.... We are 2 hours away from poll closings... final predictions?
Mine are:
Con -371
Lab +342
LD +144
UKIP -132
GRN +17

Well this one turned out splendidly...

[NyIndy]

Does this have any effect on The European elections? Could it give the Lib Dems a boost going into them?

[Gary J]

The reason why English local government is so confusing is that, during the last couple of generations, there have been a series of local government reorganisations; which were not applied consistently to the whole country. Similarly different authorities, even of a similar type, have ended up with varied electoral arrangements; which ensures that no set of local elections exactly corresponds to that of any other year.

The general approach has been to gradually increase the size of local authorities and reduce the number of councillors per elector.

[YL]

Sheffield: Labour lost several seats to the Lib Dems and Greens, though picked one up from UKIP.  There's now a chance Labour might lose control next year.

Calderdale: Labour won the seats they needed and more, and took control easily.

Kirklees: Mixed results here.  Labour lost a couple of seats to the Lib Dems, and lost the ex-Independent seat in Holme Valley North and another seat to an ex-UKIP figure standing as a Heavy Woollen District Independent, but they gained Colne Valley and Holme Valley South from the Tories, so maintained control.

[Donerail]

Does this have any effect on The European elections? Could it give the Lib Dems a boost going into them?

This is what happened when we played through an election with relatively low stakes and fairly low turnout. Drop the turnout a little bit more and set the stakes to "zero," and just imagine the possibilities!

[rc18]

Does this have any effect on The European elections? Could it give the Lib Dems a boost going into them?

Not to be churlish, of course they’ll be happy with this result, but I would not expect the EP elections to look anything like this. Remember the voting patterns are skewed by the LDs being the only viable non-Conservative/Labour candidate in many seats, if there were any others at all. This is not the case in an EP election under a sort-of proportional voting system.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

All of the Takes about North/South and Brexit factors on Labour performance and yet... Labour had high hopes of winning a majority in Brighton & Hove, very realistic ones. Nailed on favourites. Results are coming through right now and... it is not going well.

[jaichind]

BBC implied national vote share

CON  28
LAB   28
LIB   19