Is Nevada trending Republican

[pbrower2a]

2008 was a bad year for Vegas gambling due to the economic meltdown. It was also the year of the real-estate meltdown, Las Vegas having been an epicenter of speculative activity.

Go figure 2016. Nevada isn't exactly an intellectual-friendly state. Donald Trump is the most anti-intellectual Presidential candidate in a very long time, unless you are speaking of some third-Party nominee who might get 2% of the vote or less.

2020 was a disaster for the gambling industry in Nevada due to COVID-19, and I can imagine many people in it going elsewhere for work. The  R-leaning ranching and mining industries weren't hit too hard, but the people who work in those two industries are very different from those in the tourist trade that depends heavily upon casino gambling.

In an election with a similar overall result in the popular vote to 2012, Nevada probably gives about a 5% margin to the Democrat.

[pbrower2a]

This state's economy was destroyed by shutdowns and Biden still won it by over two points. I wonder if Nevada will be like Minnesota in that Republicans will be salivating over it for four years only for it to swing D. It could be trending Republican, but I doubt it flips in 2024.

If I am to guess what state is demographically most like Nevada it is New Mexico. New Mexico may not have as strong an economy (like Nevada it really is a low-income state) but it does not depend as heavily on one industry as does Nevada.