Since Democrats peak performance in 2008, the margin of victory has been getting smaller and smaller in Nevada
2008: 12.5%
2012: 6.48%
2016: 2.42%
2020: 2.39%
Here is how many more votes Democrats got over Republicans
2008: 122k
2012: 67k
2016: 27k
2020: 33k
Since 2008, Republicans have added 258k voters while Democrats have only added 169k voters
In 2016, Nevada was closer than Arizona was [AZ went solidly for Trump though?]
I think Obama was a really good candidate for Nevada but otherwise its still a toss up and should be treated as such
Thoughts?
2008 probably isn’t the best reference point considering the Great Recession started that year and Obama won in an EC landslide. But yeah, Trump did surprisingly well here and the multi-cycle trends do not look good for the Dems.
